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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
I'll put this in two threads... I have a theory about this election... no idea if it's true. In 2016, there were A LOT of voters (women in particular) who said they were voting for Hillary... but then voted Trump when they were privately in the voting box. The idea being that they did not want to explain to their friends and family why they were voting Trump.

I think the opposite will happen this election. Because the topic has become so toxic, I think a lot of people (women in particular) in MAGA families and communities will vote against Trump when they get in the ballot box... but will claim to have voted for him if asked, so they don't have to deal with the backlash.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
I'll put this in two threads... I have a theory about this election... no idea if it's true. In 2016, there were A LOT of voters (women in particular) who said they were voting for Hillary... but then voted Trump when they were privately in the voting box. The idea being that they did not want to explain to their friends and family why they were voting Trump.

I think the opposite will happen this election. Because the topic has become so toxic, I think a lot of people (women in particular) in MAGA families and communities will vote against Trump when they get in the ballot box... but will claim to have voted for him if asked, so they don't have to deal with the backlash.
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The problem with this is that it's invisible, so it can't be counted on. The campaign needs to pretend things like this don't exist.
 
superrific said:
I get it. But Ralston is the gold standard in NV journalism. I took him to be saying that the rural turnout is exceedingly high period, not just for early voting. If I was reading this from some no-name about another state it wouldn't really bother me.
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No he is saying it's high for early vote. He was commenting later in his blog that if this cannibalizes the EDay vote then it's just a big shift in timing, not result.
 
aGDevil2k said:
No he is saying it's high for early vote. He was commenting later in his blog that if this cannibalizes the EDay vote then it's just a big shift in timing, not result.
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I would also think that Nevada’s Election Day vote will trend more Democratic than other areas of the country.

If you think about it, I’d imagine a lot of the rural Republican voting pop in NV leans older. That could be why they’re early voting. OTOH, Dem leaning union voters in LV will probably vote on Election Day.
 
Yeah. The GOP is pushing early vote this year. First time in 20 years, at least (and given early vote wasnt as big before that, maybe first time ever). But they are really pushing it. And so the whole "red surge" on EDay is likely a thing of the past.
 
nycfan said:
Blue-leaning pollster historically

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Interesting that their sample includes recalled 2020 vote but doesn't weight on that basis. So they have a sample of voters that voted 49-48 FOR TRUMP in 2020 and they get this result. It's not clear if it was weighting by education.
 
quakerdevil said:
The problem with this is that it's invisible, so it can't be counted on. The campaign needs to pretend things like this don't exist.
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Agree 100%, but I truly think this election will be the inverse of 2016... where polls significantly over estimate Trump.
 


Hopefully we’ll see urban turnout % catch-up and surpass rural turn-out percentages in swing states before early voting wraps.
 
nycfan said:


Hopefully we’ll see urban turnout % catch-up and surpass rural turn-out percentages in swing states before early voting wraps.
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I really, really wish people would stop comparing anything to the sui generis 2020 election. It was exceptional for at least three reasons:

A. the pandemic, duh
B. A lot of new voting rules and expanded access for voting by mail meant that voters weren't familiar with applicable procedures to a degree that I can't remember;
C. One of the two major party candidates was actively telling its supporters to vote later than they otherwise would have.

No comparison to 2020 turnout is going to be informative.
 
superrific said:
I really, really wish people would stop comparing anything to the sui generis 2020 election. It was exceptional for at least three reasons:

A. the pandemic, duh
B. A lot of new voting rules and expanded access for voting by mail meant that voters weren't familiar with applicable procedures to a degree that I can't remember;
C. One of the two major party candidates was actively telling its supporters to vote later than they otherwise would have.

No comparison to 2020 turnout is going to be informative.
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Agree. There's extremely little to be gleaned from early voting numbers this cycle.
 
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