2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[Calheel]

I just don't understand this at all. How do "Independents" (another term I don't understand) think Trump will make their finances better?

Independent voters on financial condition via CBS/YouGov poll:

If Trump wins:
43% better off
37% worse off
20% stay the same

If Harris wins:
16% better off
47% worse off
37% stay the same

The only way that makes sense is that independent voters assume Republicans are better with the economy, without any thought given to Trump's actual policies (or the fact that it is empirically false).

 

[Zoo_View]

I just don't understand this at all. How do "Independents" (another term I don't understand) think Trump will make their finances better?

Independent voters on financial condition via CBS/YouGov poll:

If Trump wins:
43% better off
37% worse off
20% stay the same

If Harris wins:
16% better off
47% worse off
37% stay the same

Cut taxes.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Basically the race is even with a slight edge to Harris. That's what the CBS poll seems

I question anything that has Georgia and North Carolina the exact same

 

[Scientific Mapp]

If the Dems had a white male at top of the ticket and GOP had, say, Condeleeza Rice, I would be interested in seeing how it would impact this result.

Interesting hypothetical. I would think, and hope, a very significant impact. Some large proportion of the respondents surely used "a Black woman president" as a proxy for "Kamala" and simply responded in accordance with whether they like Kamala or not.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

I just don't understand this at all. How do "Independents" (another term I don't understand) think Trump will make their finances better?

Independent voters on financial condition via CBS/YouGov poll:

If Trump wins:
43% better off
37% worse off
20% stay the same

If Harris wins:
16% better off
47% worse off
37% stay the same

They compared their financial condition under the Trump administration to the Biden/Harris administration. Many families are struggling to make ends meet with prices of everything now out of control

 

[Mulberry Heel]

If the Dems had a white male at top of the ticket and GOP had, say, Condeleeza Rice, I would be interested in seeing how it would impact this result.

I'm curious as to how rural white Republicans react to Robinson's campaign for NC Governor. I'm sure many (most) will still vote for him, but racism in some of these counties runs deep, and I wonder if some won't be able to vote for him simply because of his race, even though they agree with his social and cultural views. And I'm not saying that's a good thing, only that it may be an issue for him in November if the election is close.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

I just don't understand this at all. How do "Independents" (another term I don't understand) think Trump will make their finances better?

Independent voters on financial condition via CBS/YouGov poll:

If Trump wins:
43% better off
37% worse off
20% stay the same

If Harris wins:
16% better off
47% worse off
37% stay the same

It seems to me that swing voters generally think the Republicans are better fiscally and the Democrats are better on social issues.

It’s kinda baked in and I think a lot of people could not even tell you why.

 

[superrific]

"Independents" (another term I don't understand) think Trump will make their finances better?

The problem is the term "independent." It just means people who don't identify with either party. Most MAGAs are independent in that sense, at least until they complete their takeover (almost complete) of the GOP.

The people saying Trump will make their finances better are overwhelmingly MAGA.

 

[aGDevil2k]

I'm curious as to how rural white Republicans react to Robinson's campaign for NC Governor. I'm sure many (most) will still vote for him, but racism in some of these counties runs deep, and I wonder if some won't be able to vote for him simply because of his race, even though they agree with his social and cultural views. And I'm not saying that's a good thing, only that it may be an issue for him in November if the election is close.

Or they think it makes them not racist

They don't need an imaginary black friend. They voted for Robinson

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Or they think it makes them not racist

They don't need an imaginary black friend. They voted for Robinson

Maybe, and I have no doubt that the great majority will vote for Robinson. I'm talking about some who simply won't vote for any black or brown candidates ever, no matter the party. I doubt they'll vote for Stein, but I'm wondering if some will just leave that part of the ballot blank.

 

[CFordUNC]

The people saying Trump will make their finances better are overwhelmingly MAGA.

Right, as are the people who are adamant that the economy is in shambles. The rest of us in the real world are able to enjoy the fruits of being fortunate enough to live in the country that had the very best post-pandemic economic recovery. We're able to enjoy record low unemployment such that almost every person who wants a job can get a job. We're able to enjoy wage growth that has outpaced inflation. For those of us with either the fortunate ability or the discipline (or both) to save money and invest in the stock market, we're able to enjoy recent record-highs in the market.

I always get a kick out of some of my MAGA family members whining and complaining about how their grocery bill is "200% higher" now than it was when, presumably, Trump was in office. I always ask them if they're tracking whether or not they are buying the exact same things every time they go to the grocery store and if they do price comparisons/shop around for the best prices. They, of course, do neither. But they're just so certain that they are paying more than double for their groceries now!

 

[Icky Mettle]

When has any pub assertion ever stood up to pub hypocrisy?

Well it is still the minority.

 

[HeelInTheOzarks]

Right, as are the people who are adamant that the economy is in shambles. The rest of us in the real world are able to enjoy the fruits of being fortunate enough to live in the country that had the very best post-pandemic economic recovery. We're able to enjoy record low unemployment such that almost every person who wants a job can get a job. We're able to enjoy wage growth that has outpaced inflation. For those of us with either the fortunate ability or the discipline (or both) to save money and invest in the stock market, we're able to enjoy recent record-highs in the market.

I always get a kick out of some of my MAGA family members whining and complaining about how their grocery bill is "200% higher" now than it was when, presumably, Trump was in office. I always ask them if they're tracking whether or not they are buying the exact same things every time they go to the grocery store and if they do price comparisons/shop around for the best prices. They, of course, do neither. But they're just so certain that they are paying more than double for their groceries now!

“The economy” = the price of a gallon of gas to way too many people. Unemployment etc doesn’t matter to them.

 

[CFordUNC]

“The economy” = the price of a gallon of gas to way too many people. Unemployment etc doesn’t matter to them.

Oh yeah, absolutely that's true. The ironic thing is that gas prices adjusted for inflation are about where they've always been historically. So people aren't actually even paying a much higher percentage of their income on gasoline- they just see that the price per gallon is $3 and in 1999 it was $1.50 and they think that the whole economy is going to hell in a handbasket.

 

[He's Not Here]

I just don't understand this at all. How do "Independents" (another term I don't understand) think Trump will make their finances better?

Independent voters on financial condition via CBS/YouGov poll:

If Trump wins:
43% better off
37% worse off
20% stay the same

If Harris wins:
16% better off
47% worse off
37% stay the same

At this point, an independent is just a republican that doesn't embrace trump but hasn't ruled out voting for him. Since they're republicans at heart, they believe trump will be better for the economy - despite all evidence to the contrary.

 

[nycfan]

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

Last update: 1:00 p.m, Sunday, August 4: After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched. Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college.

 

[ChileG]

They compared their financial condition under the Trump administration to the Biden/Harris administration. Many families are struggling to make ends meet with prices of everything now out of control

Why do you believe “prices of everything (are) now out of control?”
And by that, I mean, why do you believe something that flies in the face of readily available data?

 

[CFordUNC]

FINAL Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

Last update: 1:00 p.m, Sunday, August 4: After another day of strong polling, Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump for the first time since the forecast launched. Although the race is still a toss-up, Harris leads Trump by 1.4 points in our national polling average, and has a 51 percent chance of winning the electoral college.

Those numbers are likely to only increase following the VP pick, DNC convention, and continued unraveling of Trump/Vance.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

Why do you believe “prices of everything (are) now out of control?”
And by that, I mean, why do you believe something that flies in the face of readily available data?

In politics, most people vote based on how they feel their life is under the current administration vs the hope of a new one. 2024 is a unique election because Trump has been the president before too. So many people will be asking themselves which 4-year period their dollar stretched further in, and that will determine their vote.

 

[ChileG]

In politics, most people vote based on how they feel their life is under the current administration vs the hope of a new one. 2024 is a unique election because Trump has been the president before too. So many people will be asking themselves which 4-year period their dollar stretched further in, and that will determine their vote.

Obviously, but that isn’t what I asked you.