2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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CarolinaFever said:
All the transplants to NC and it still goes to Trump. This state outside the Triangle, Triad, Charlotte and the college towns is still backwards.
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The issue here is that a ton of transplants into NC are actually trumpers. I've over heard them "we moved down here from ____ because we wanted to move to a red state and away from all the libtards". These folks had moved to the Lake Norman area of Charlotte. Make no mistake - not all who relocate here are intelligent people. The only "smart" thing they're doing is escaping the insufferable heat and humidity bubble that is Florida, and escaping higher taxes up north. Other than that, they are ignorant magas.
 
Centerpiece said:
The issue here is that a ton of transplants into NC are actually trumpers. I've over heard them "we moved down here from ____ because we wanted to move to a red state and away from all the libtards". These folks had moved to the Lake Norman area of Charlotte. Make no mistake - not all who relocate here are intelligent people. The only "smart" thing they're doing is escaping the insufferable heat and humidity bubble that is Florida, and escaping higher taxes up north. Other than that, they are ignorant magas.
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I recently (like a few months ago) downsized, sold our lake house and moved to a nearby 55+ community. We are among the few here from NC and surrounded by transplants from the Northeast and Midwest who are generally republicans, though maybe not as conservative as a typical deep red small town NC resident. The praise of the low taxes is often quickly followed by complaints about the lack of local government services …

It’s not the Villages but some shared culture, I guess. Since I am about the only person who lives here and is not retired, I don’t actually socialize much since I don’t have time for afternoon get togethers, so I don’t want to overstate things — very few obvious political displays here and I am mostly going off stuff overheard at the community restaurant and bar. A lot of it is like a permanent cruise, with the constant schedule of exercise, travel and social events …
 
aGDevil2k said:
So the average was in favor of Trump. Thanks for making our point
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Actually it was a 4-3 advantage for Biden, a cumulative .2 advantage for Trump in the polls but in all actuality it was a 1.3% victory for Trump.

My point is the actual vote talley is higher for the pubs than the polls indicate,,,,dumb azz
 
Faucette said:
This is what I saw. The final result is always more in favor of the right than the last polls indicated. I could get more states but this took less than a minute

www.realclearpolling.com

2020 North Carolina Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2020 North Carolina Election between Trump and Biden. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com

www.realclearpolling.com

2020 Ohio Election: Trump vs. Biden Polls | RealClearPolling

Explore poll data on the 2020 Ohio Election between Trump and Biden. Gain insights into key trends and electoral dynamics.
www.realclearpolling.com www.realclearpolling.com
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What do you mean, "always"? In the previous two presidential election cycles, Trump outperformed the polls. In 2018 and 2022, Dems outperformed the polls.

The pollsters have been recalibrating their polling methods and their sample weightings. I have a feeling that there will be a rebound effect, and that the polls are going to be slightly pro-Trump this cycle (meaning it will be Dems who overperform). That's just a hunch, based on cross tabs, things I've read about the polling methods, and just general expectations for behavior (overcorrection is so common).
 
Who are the 5-10% of people polled who claim they are voting for RFK Jr? Are they just fucking with the pollsters?
 
farce said:
Who are the 5-10% of people polled who claim they are voting for RFK Jr? Are they just fucking with the pollsters?
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They are Libertarians who can't stand Pubs or Dems and are also anti-vaxxers. They listen to Joe Rogain
 
farce said:
Who are the 5-10% of people polled who claim they are voting for RFK Jr? Are they just fucking with the pollsters?
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That poll with Kennedy, Jr. at 6% ended on Thursday, Aug. 1st.

The bear story wasn’t out, yet.
 
farce said:
Who are the 5-10% of people polled who claim they are voting for RFK Jr? Are they just fucking with the pollsters?
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This always happens. His share will continue to decline through November. I’ll be very surprised if he tops 2%. Could be less than 1%.
 
farce said:
Who are the 5-10% of people polled who claim they are voting for RFK Jr? Are they just fucking with the pollsters?
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In polling well before the election, 3rd party candidates often function as a "neither of the two major party candidates" option for folks to show their displeasure.

However, as has been mentioned, once the election gets close and folks have to think about the reality of actually electing someone, most end up back to one of the two main party candidates.

It will be interesting to see how RFKJr actually does in November and which major party candidate was most likely hurt by him. (My hunch is that he pulls 1-2% and we conclude it largely comes from Trump.)
 
farce said:
Pennsylvania is pretty much like every other 2020 blue state (with a few exceptions in New England) in that the urban areas vote blue and the rural areas vote red. In PA, the eastern counties from Philly going north bordering New Jersey are urbanized and vote blue, as does the Harrisburg area, that big county in the middle of the state containing State College, and Erie and Pittsburgh (Biden won Pittsburgh/Allegheny County 60% to 40%.) It's less an east/west split than an urban/rural split just like Ohio and North Carolina and Wisconsin and Georgia and Arizona and Michigan and on and on.
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My cousin from Harrisburg always said Philly Pittsburgh and Pensylbama in between.
 
Faucette said:
Actually it was a 4-3 advantage for Biden, a cumulative .2 advantage for Trump in the polls but in all actuality it was a 1.3% victory for Trump.

My point is the actual vote talley is higher for the pubs than the polls indicate,,,,dumb azz
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4-3 isn't a thing. "I won in 4 polls and you won in 3" isn't a thing. Averages reduce noise.

And dumb azz? Are you 12?
 
aGDevil2k said:
Well and Charlotte is a bank city. Bankers want their tax cuts!

That and some of the suburbs go into South Carolina, diluting the Metro influence
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Those suburbs in SC go red, so it’s not like including them would make NC any bluer. For now at least.
 
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