Karl Rove:
“… Daron Shaw of the University of Texas at Austin, suggested over email that the genuinely up-for-grabs voters consist of three groups: true independents who don’t lean toward either party, non-MAGA Republicans, and less-motivated low-interest voters.
Mr. Shaw, who is also Fox News’s poll director, says voters within these three groups who remain undecided or weakly linked to their current choice make up as little as 1.8% of the electorate. I’d suggest this share could be as high as 5%, given the number of undecided voters in national polls. That’s not a large figure, but in a tight race it would matter.
Being able to inspire party loyalists while appealing to independents has long been the mark of political thoroughbreds. Neither Mr. Trump nor Ms. Harris qualifies for that designation, but each needs only to be better than the other. Today, she appears likelier to do that than he does.
The past six weeks have shown that the pendulum can swing rapidly and wildly.
For the first time this year, the Trump campaign is floundering. Mr. Trump seems rattled. He’s making plenty of unforced errors and wasting valuable, irreplaceable time on insults, side issues and trivia. All this undermines his cause.
The Trump-Vance ticket needs to become much more disciplined and settle soon on an effective line of attack against Harris-Walz that wins over swing voters and then stick to it. If it can’t achieve both these goals, a race Mr. Trump was on the verge of winning three weeks ago could be lost.”
