2024 Presidential Election | 46 Days to Election Day

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We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.

But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.

With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.

It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
 
Zoo_View said:
The GOP has a large Electoral College advantage over the Democrats.

Harris could win the popular vote by 6-7 points and still lose the Electoral College.
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That would be almost impossible. She could win by 4-5 points and lose the electoral college, but MI, PA and Wisc are too closely correlated to the national average to support a 6-7 point delta.
 
nycfan said:
It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
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Hopefully she's found her voice, relative to policy and campaign focus. As addressed several times on the board, her 2019 campaign was terrible in large part due to its wishy-washiness; she couldn't clearly articulate what she uniquely offered and why she chose to run.

Repeating the drumbeat of "old, weird, choice" likely won't carry the next three months, but appears a good through-line to interweave with child tax credits, infrastructure expansion, and continuing to rail on P2025.
 
nycfan said:
We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.

But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.

With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.

It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
Click to expand...
The big moments to watch:

1. The inevitable 60 Minutes interview.
2. The DNC speech.
3. The debates, if they happen.
4. The first no-holds-barred press conference.

If Kamala can do well with those, she has a good chance of keeping her generally positive momentum.
 
nycfan said:
We are about to reach the point where the sugar high of Harris becoming the nominee wears off, which makes it a good time to pick a VP.

But there is no perfect VP choice who won’t irritate some portion of the Dem coalition and from there the real slog of the election begins.

With the VP pick and the Dem convention still to come, maybe the Harris campaign can keep their roll going until as late as Labor Day, but in the news cyclone era we find ourselves in, that seems unlikely.

It can feel like Harris is winning thanks to her momentum but really she has reset the game to a back and forth 1-point nail biter, not taken some sort of commanding lead. The press will start pressing her for interviews and policy positions soon and she has to be ready for that.
Click to expand...
The nice thing is that in a truncated campaign the honeymoon has a disproportunate positive impact.

The campaign needs to highlight her critical role in the hostage negotiations over the weekend. I agree that the VP announcement and the convention should keep the honeymoon going at least through Labor Day.

Next comes the debate with Trump or an empty chair that is scheduled for Sept 10 and with a good performance that should extend the honeymoon until October.

Also, a successfully negotiated cease fire in Gaza would be an added bonus.

At that point if she can avoid the traditional negative "October surprise", then I think there is a very good chance our democracy will be saved in November.
 
While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.

On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).

This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
I hope the liberal media, in an attempt to appear unbiased, doesn't start picking nits with respect to Harris, yet give Trump a free pass to pretty much do and say whatever he wants.
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Agree. Like if Harris answers one question poorly or has a misstep, equating that to a half hour of racist comments directed at black journalists isnt the same thing.
 
CFordUNC said:
While I do agree that the initial sugar high of the Harris nomination will subside, and while I fully believe that there will be ebbs and flows and good days and bad days for the Harris campaign, I think that the organic, grassroots momentum that the campaign has, has legitimate bonafide sustainable staying power. The jaw-dropping amount of money that they've raised (much of it from brand-new, first-time campaign donors), the incredible number of new grassroots campaign volunteers that have signed up in battleground states, the number of new voter registrations, and the fact that the campaign has taken social media (especially TikTok) by storm, all combine to make me think that the campaign has not even come close to reaching its peak or its upside.

On the other hand, the Trump campaign is old, angry, bitter, vengeance-driven, and tried- and has probably hit its ceiling. The fact that such a substantial percentage of Republican voters continued to turn out to cast anti-Trump votes in the GOP primary even long after Nikki Haley had surrendered, tells me that there is a not-insignificant number of Republicans who may just sit the presidential ballot out (and, of course, perhaps a few will even vote for Harris).

This is definitely going to be a tense, closely-contested, hard-fought election. No doubt about it. There is a very, very, very real chance that Trump could win it. But I don't think he will. Judging strictly by the aforementioned fundraising numbers, volunteer sign-ups, GOTV efforts, and new voter registrations, I think we are going to see a renewed and energized wave of Democratic enthusiasm and turnout that we haven't seen since the 2008 election. And when Democrats are enthused and excited, they turn out, and when they turn out, they win.
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As the PSA guys said recently, even if weird doesn’t have staying power, boring and stale probably do. Trump’s just tedious at the point. Nothing new, nothing interesting. Just the same old boring, tired, self-indulgent litany of grievances. Ain’t nobody got time for that.
 
lawtig02 said:
The big moments to watch:

1. The inevitable 60 Minutes interview.
2. The DNC speech.
3. The debates, if they happen.
4. The first no-holds-barred press conference.

If Kamala can do well with those, she has a good chance of keeping her generally positive momentum.
Click to expand...
Hopefully they are coordinated in a fashion to keep the news cycle fresh. It seems like that is what’s happening.
 
lawtig02 said:
As the PSA guys said recently, even if weird doesn’t have staying power, boring and stale probably do. Trump’s just tedious at the point. Nothing new, nothing interesting. Just the same old boring, tired, self-indulgent litany of grievances. Ain’t nobody got time for that.
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Totally agree. Everyone who isn't a dyed-in-the-wool MAGA is tired of the anger, bitterness, chaos, etc. I know that it's popular to talk about how dumb and uninformed the average American voter is, but ultimately I think that unites the most important part of the electorate is that hope, optimism, forward-looking, and "new" are hallmark American themes that resonate. And I think that's what swing voters are going to choose.
 
There is nothing, not one word that trump or Vance can say that will add to their vote total at this point. It is what it is.

Harris has major upside potential if she can convince the young people and the people who were completely disaffected by their choice a month ago that there is a positive vote they can place and not just a negative anti trump vote. Obviously she has to avoid major gaffes but she has a lot of low hanging fruit to go after vis a vis trump.

I am also less concerned about her performance in the presidential primary 4 years ago. She ain't having to stand out on a crowded stage of good debaters. She only has to compete against the muddled mind and tired rhetoric of trump.
 
I'm an atheist but I wouldn't mind it if someone were to start a meme:

Everyone is saying that it is a miracle that Kamala's campaign has taken off like a rocket and there can be only explanation:

God has sent us Kamala Harris to save America from the evildoers !!!
 
heelinhell said:
I'm an atheist but I wouldn't mind it if someone were to start a meme:

Everyone is saying that it is a miracle that Kamala's campaign has taken off like a rocket and there can be only explanation:

God has sent us Kamala Harris to save America from the evildoers !!!
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No
Satan has sent Kamala to steal America from White Evangelicals
 
uncgriff said:


🤯😳
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Jack Nicholson Yes GIF
 
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