2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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Calheel said:
I’m not sure comments sections are an accurate sampling of all bettors.

Why do I have the feeling that if the betting markets were 80% for Kamala, certain posters would not be trying so hard to disavow the numbers? It reminds me of all the polling methodology criticism I read when Trump was ahead of Biden in the polls.

Again, betting markets are just one data point - and not a particularly important one. But they aren’t irrelevant either. It is a part of the information puzzle.
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I can count on one hand the amount of times betting markets are discussed here, and that's regardless of who leads at any one time. If 5 days ago, it was Harris. Today - Trump.

Again, you seem to ascertain some value from these lines moving. It doesn't appear many in this community do.

Hope that clears things up.
 
Calheel said:
I’m not sure comments sections are an accurate sampling of all bettors.

Why do I have the feeling that if the betting markets were 80% for Kamala, certain posters would not be trying so hard to disavow the numbers? It reminds me of all the polling methodology criticism I read when Trump was ahead of Biden in the polls.

Again, betting markets are just one data point - and not a particularly important one. But they aren’t irrelevant either. It is a part of the information puzzle.
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I have no more trust in betting odds than polls. Polls might suggest trend lines or highlight important issues. But neither polls nor betting odds decide winners. Voters do.
 
CallMeTyler said:
I can count on one hand the amount of times betting markets are discussed here, and that's regardless of who leads at any one time. If 5 days ago, it was Harris. Today - Trump.

Again, you seem to ascertain some value from these lines moving. It doesn't appear many in this community do.

Hope that clears things up.
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I wasn't confused.

Like I've posted a gazillion times, I don't think the betting markets are that significant.

The only reason they even came up was a discussion of the impact of the RFK, Jr news, which may or may not have contributed to the line movement (I acknowledge your position on that -- it is simply one of those unknowable things).

In any event, I think this topic has been fully exhausted by now and I will follow the lawtig lead and bow out of the discussion.
 
altmin said:
my friend who is a letter carrier in Raleigh said the Trump campaign finally did fliers. Said he has three to be delivered to every door today, which is odd. Things are usually more spread out.
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I wonder if the Trump campaign is also planning on using the Pony Express to get their message out...
 
altmin said:
my friend who is a letter carrier in Raleigh said the Trump campaign finally did fliers. Said he has three to be delivered to every door today, which is odd. Things are usually more spread out.
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Ask if he's still working.........if he is, ask him to check who each mailing is from........could be from 3 different PAC's who campaigns are not coordinated.......or, it could just be the Trump Campaign is in chaos.
 
If you think Trump is going to lose this election, I'd say the better bet would be shorting DJT stock or buying puts, although those are pretty juiced and have been the whole time the stock has been trading (but still profitable in many cases). I think DJT will crater if he loses. Should be a penny stock based on the fundamentals, if Trump loses I suspect it will get priced much closer to its "real" value pretty quickly...
 
1moretimeagain said:
$63 million was bet on RFK Jr to become President, $20 million on AOC and $7 million on Kanye West.
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1moretimeagain said:
$63 million was bet on RFK Jr to become President, $20 million on AOC and $7 million on Kanye West.
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I'm admittedly being pedantic but I don't think this is correct. The total handle on RFK Jr. would've been 63 million, and the overwhelming vast majority of that money wagered would've been on the "No" side.
 
Zoo_View said:
Ask if he's still working.........if he is, ask him to check who each mailing is from........could be from 3 different PAC's who campaigns are not coordinated.......or, it could just be the Trump Campaign is in chaos.
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The first could be true, the campaign is most definitely in chaos.
 
Calheel said:
The short risk is not analogous at all. The financial markets can be irrational longer than your cash holds out.
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The point was that even in highly liquid market, smart money doesn't necessarily discipline the suckers. True, shorting a stock by borrowing isn't the best analogy, but you can short stocks with options. And a put or call option is financially identical to a bet on Harris or Trump.
 
superrific said:
The point was that even in highly liquid market, smart money doesn't necessarily discipline the suckers. True, shorting a stock by borrowing isn't the best analogy, but you can short stocks with options. And a put or call option is financially identical to a bet on Harris or Trump.
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I think it is far more analogous to a market distortion caused by a popular team, like the Dallas Cowboys or the LA Lakers. I mean, I suppose someone could be trying to rig the market simply for the PR effect, but I am skeptical of the feasibility/likelihood of that. When Roaring Kitty rigs the Gamestop stock price, there is a way to make money off of it. Rigging a betting market for PR purposes would be hard to cash in on, since you'd need to hedge your position, which would undermine the rigging objective.
 
Calheel said:
I think it is far more analogous to a market distortion caused by a popular team, like the Dallas Cowboys or the LA Lakers. I mean, I suppose someone could be trying to rig the market simply for the PR effect, but I am skeptical of the feasibility/likelihood of that. When Roaring Kitty rigs the Gamestop stock price, there is a way to make money off of it. Rigging a betting market for PR purposes would be hard to cash in on, since you'd need to hedge your position, which would undermine the rigging objective.
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I don't know much at all about sports betting, so I don't know how to make that analogy. This isn't worth discussing any further since we mostly agree on the bottom line and I don't care enough to continue at the moment. I'll just say that I disagree with your finance analysis here and we can leave it at that.
 
circlesky88 said:
That’s been a rumor for awhile, not much validity to it IMO.
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yeah, i think my mom follows a lot of t-swift content aggregator pages on FB (my dad's FB that she uses, she doesn't actually have one, lmao)

.....and she believes it all and i'm like "mom, these are just the taylor swift version of maga propaganda pages on FB...."
 
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