2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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This was August 15. If you look at the comments below the betting, you'll see the kind of people that are betting on this site.

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Rock said:
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This was August 15. If you look at the comments below the betting, you'll see the kind of people that are betting on this site.

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I’m not sure comments sections are an accurate sampling of all bettors.

Why do I have the feeling that if the betting markets were 80% for Kamala, certain posters would not be trying so hard to disavow the numbers? It reminds me of all the polling methodology criticism I read when Trump was ahead of Biden in the polls.

Again, betting markets are just one data point - and not a particularly important one. But they aren’t irrelevant either. It is a part of the information puzzle.
 
Centerpiece said:
Taylor Swift’s silence right now is deafening. Is her boyfriend KC Kelce a Trumper? Maybe a closet Trumper? Is her relationship with him swaying her… one way or another? Just curious. I don’t follow Swift, and I’m not a fan of her music (even tho I give her HUGE props for being authentic, and writing and performing her own, original material). I just find it curious she’s not mentioned anything publicly about trump using her image and material and the fact she has not come out in support of Harris/Walz campaign. Others have: JT, Neil Young, Stevie, John Legend, Beyoncé, Mellencamp, etc. etc.

Come on Taylor. Shit or get off the pot. Perhaps she’s waiting for tonight and Kamala’s acceptance speech?
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Kelce is definitely not a Trumper. He’s done ads encouraging vaccination, he endorsed Bud Light after the whole trans “scandal”, and he has kneeled for the national Anthem.
 
Calheel said:
I’m not sure comments sections are an accurate sampling of all bettors.

Why do I have the feeling that if the betting markets were 80% for Kamala, certain posters would not be trying so hard to disavow the numbers? It reminds me of all the polling methodology criticism I read when Trump was ahead of Biden in the polls.

Again, betting markets are just one data point - and not a particularly important one. But they aren’t irrelevant either. It is a part of the information puzzle.
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I can count on one hand the amount of times betting markets are discussed here, and that's regardless of who leads at any one time. If 5 days ago, it was Harris. Today - Trump.

Again, you seem to ascertain some value from these lines moving. It doesn't appear many in this community do.

Hope that clears things up.
 
Calheel said:
I’m not sure comments sections are an accurate sampling of all bettors.

Why do I have the feeling that if the betting markets were 80% for Kamala, certain posters would not be trying so hard to disavow the numbers? It reminds me of all the polling methodology criticism I read when Trump was ahead of Biden in the polls.

Again, betting markets are just one data point - and not a particularly important one. But they aren’t irrelevant either. It is a part of the information puzzle.
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I have no more trust in betting odds than polls. Polls might suggest trend lines or highlight important issues. But neither polls nor betting odds decide winners. Voters do.
 
CallMeTyler said:
I can count on one hand the amount of times betting markets are discussed here, and that's regardless of who leads at any one time. If 5 days ago, it was Harris. Today - Trump.

Again, you seem to ascertain some value from these lines moving. It doesn't appear many in this community do.

Hope that clears things up.
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I wasn't confused.

Like I've posted a gazillion times, I don't think the betting markets are that significant.

The only reason they even came up was a discussion of the impact of the RFK, Jr news, which may or may not have contributed to the line movement (I acknowledge your position on that -- it is simply one of those unknowable things).

In any event, I think this topic has been fully exhausted by now and I will follow the lawtig lead and bow out of the discussion.
 
altmin said:
my friend who is a letter carrier in Raleigh said the Trump campaign finally did fliers. Said he has three to be delivered to every door today, which is odd. Things are usually more spread out.
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I wonder if the Trump campaign is also planning on using the Pony Express to get their message out...
 
altmin said:
my friend who is a letter carrier in Raleigh said the Trump campaign finally did fliers. Said he has three to be delivered to every door today, which is odd. Things are usually more spread out.
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Ask if he's still working.........if he is, ask him to check who each mailing is from........could be from 3 different PAC's who campaigns are not coordinated.......or, it could just be the Trump Campaign is in chaos.
 
If you think Trump is going to lose this election, I'd say the better bet would be shorting DJT stock or buying puts, although those are pretty juiced and have been the whole time the stock has been trading (but still profitable in many cases). I think DJT will crater if he loses. Should be a penny stock based on the fundamentals, if Trump loses I suspect it will get priced much closer to its "real" value pretty quickly...
 
1moretimeagain said:
$63 million was bet on RFK Jr to become President, $20 million on AOC and $7 million on Kanye West.
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1moretimeagain said:
$63 million was bet on RFK Jr to become President, $20 million on AOC and $7 million on Kanye West.
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I'm admittedly being pedantic but I don't think this is correct. The total handle on RFK Jr. would've been 63 million, and the overwhelming vast majority of that money wagered would've been on the "No" side.
 
Zoo_View said:
Ask if he's still working.........if he is, ask him to check who each mailing is from........could be from 3 different PAC's who campaigns are not coordinated.......or, it could just be the Trump Campaign is in chaos.
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The first could be true, the campaign is most definitely in chaos.
 
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