2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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lawtig02 said:
This would be a good discussion for the post-election season here, which may not be until next February or so, but I see it as a little simpler than this. I agree that if Trump loses, he's done, as is his family. A post-Trump GOP will be a massive internal struggle between the Mike Johnson/JD Vance/Jim Jordan wing, and the Nikki Haley/Larry Hogan wing, with wet noodles like Cruz, Rubio and DeSantis somewhere in the middle. My money would be on the Christofascist wing to prevail, but every person in that group is VASTLY less able to communicate with Trump's MAGA base than Trump is himself. Our country would be far better served by having the Haley/Hogan wing prevail, but a whole bunch of GOP jellyfish will need to find a spine for that to happen.
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Just to be clear, I don't think Trump himself is going anywhere if he loses. He will continue campaigning, first to try to overturn this election and then to basically start looking ahead to 2028. As long as he's alive, he will do everything in his power to remain the MAGA king. And his base will not desert him for anyone else you named in your post, never, under any circumstances. If he loses this election, he immediately becomes the favorite for the Republican 2028 nomination, which he will win if he's alive and isn't, like, actively falling asleep and drooling at his rallies.

I also think you're looking at this thing too narrowly by focusing on career politicians as the leaders of the Republican Party. They're not anymore. IMO people like Carlson and Musk are much more likely to steer the post-Trump MAGA coalition (and by extension the post-Trump Republican Party) than the people you named. Celebrities and/or people with large "independent" media voices; these are the future leaders of the Republican Party, at least in the immediate future. Unless and until there is a major shakeup in the American political landscape, whether caused by domestic or international calamity.
 
He's already said that he's not going to run again. He sees the writing on the wall. That man is tired. He's been doing this for almost ten years.
 
korgguy1971 said:
I think in our current political climate, the luxury of being a Trump supporter is that you're able to go into nearly any controversy knowing that there's no set of principles to which you can be held, while at the same time knowing that non-Trump supporters will still likely hold themselves to their own.
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The crazy thing is that the Trump supporters I interact with are so delusional that they think that they are held to a higher standard than Democrats.

A persecution complex is a prerequisite to be MAGA.
 
lawtig02 said:
This would be a good discussion for the post-election season here, which may not be until next February or so, but I see it as a little simpler than this. I agree that if Trump loses, he's done, as is his family. A post-Trump GOP will be a massive internal struggle between the Mike Johnson/JD Vance/Jim Jordan wing, and the Nikki Haley/Larry Hogan wing, with wet noodles like Cruz, Rubio and DeSantis somewhere in the middle. My money would be on the Christofascist wing to prevail, but every person in that group is VASTLY less able to communicate with Trump's MAGA base than Trump is himself. Our country would be far better served by having the Haley/Hogan wing prevail, but a whole bunch of GOP jellyfish will need to find a spine for that to happen.
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Agree that what happens to the GOP post-Trump will be interesting to watch and discuss.

Disagree that Nikki Haley and Larry Hogan are in the same part of the GOP. Haley’s more aligned with the invertebrates - Rubio, Lady G, Cruz, DeSantis, etc.
 
rodoheel said:
Just to be clear, I don't think Trump himself is going anywhere if he loses. He will continue campaigning, first to try to overturn this election and then to basically start looking ahead to 2028. As long as he's alive, he will do everything in his power to remain the MAGA king. And his base will not desert him for anyone else you named in your post, never, under any circumstances. If he loses this election, he immediately becomes the favorite for the Republican 2028 nomination, which he will win if he's alive and isn't, like, actively falling asleep and drooling at his rallies.

I also think you're looking at this thing too narrowly by focusing on career politicians as the leaders of the Republican Party. They're not anymore. IMO people like Carlson and Musk are much more likely to steer the post-Trump MAGA coalition (and by extension the post-Trump Republican Party) than the people you named. Celebrities and/or people with large "independent" media voices; these are the future leaders of the Republican Party, at least in the immediate future. Unless and until there is a major shakeup in the American political landscape, whether caused by domestic or international calamity.
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Yeah, I hear you on the last point. I just don't think Tucker, Musk, etc. get much traction. They're not Trump. Trump is literally the only person I've seen who could be a nonstop massive asshole and still get 45% of the country to support him. Those guys are also nonstop massive assholes, but they're not Trump, so I don't see them going anywhere.

We'll just have to see about Trump. If he loses, I have a feeling he's dead (of natural causes) within a year. If he's not, there's a great chance he'll be in prison. And if he's not in prison, there's a great chance it's because he's kicking it with his Russian buds in Doha.
 
uncleradar said:
I think Kamala wins the election, and Trump rolls out another big lie and even more legal challenges. Ultimately Kamala becomes president on Jan 20. The next day Trump announces he is running in 2028. He then begs for donations, sells trinkets to the MAGA faithful, and claims the ongoing criminal cases against him are political persecution. Federal cases will eventually be neutered by the Supreme Court. State cases will be hamstrung by state legislatures in Georgia and Arizona. He will be sentenced to 6 months house arrest in the Stormy Daniels case, but he will appeal to the Supreme Court which will (somehow) expand its immunity ruling to let him off the hook.
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I'm mostly with this, but I don't think he will formally announce he's running for 2028. He doesn't have to announce it. He'll just keep periodically holding rallies and calling into Fox news and holding press conferences where he'll talk about all of the same stuff he does now. He will gradually just amble towards the 2028 nomination, which he absolutely will get if he wants it and stays alive and remotely coherent.

Of course, if Trump wins, we will really be moving into uncharted waters with what happens in 2028. If Trump really does the stuff he says he'll do, he could provoke the worst recession we've seen since 1929, and it would likely drag the entire world economy down with it. What will the political landscape look like? Will Trump try to play kingmaker? Will he want to stay in the spotlight or retire gracefully? Will he die in office? Will he try to pull some harebrained legal theory to get around the 22nd amendment and stay in office? Way more difficult to predict than what will happen if Trump loses, IMO.
 
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