2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

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Calheel said:
How many pro-Cheney, anti-Trump voters exist in 2024? It can’t be a very large demo.
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I think this is missing the forest for the trees. The point is not a single republican/conservative moving away from trump. The point is a burgeoning republican/conservative *movement* away from trump, finally.

It’s an accumulation, and that message as a whole isn’t being aimed at just one sliver of a demo, it’s aimed at the whole electorate. And it’s adding to the trump fatigue that piles up in so many other ways.
 
Calheel said:
How many pro-Cheney, anti-Trump voters exist in 2024? It can’t be a very large demo.
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I think it's more that you would be giving folks with strong misgivings about Trump "permission" to do something other than vote for him.

A very small number of folks might move their vote to Harris. But more may vote 3rd party or even leave the top of the ticket blank if they feel like it's ok to do so. If they feel like like being a conservative or a Republican means that you can be against Trump while being for conservative/Republican ideals and beliefs.

Are we talking, at most, 1% of Trump-leaning voters? Probably. But in places like Wisconsin. Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, that small amount of voters could be enough to add to other election efforts to make a difference in one of those states.
 
duluoz said:
I think this is missing the forest for the trees. The point is not a single republican/conservative moving away from trump. The point is a burgeoning republican/conservative *movement* away from trump, finally.

It’s an accumulation, and that message as a whole isn’t being aimed at just one sliver of a demo, it’s aimed at the whole electorate. And it’s adding to the trump fatigue that piles up in so many other ways.
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I'm not sure Cheney is a very good messenger for that movement.

George W, however, I think would move the needle.
 
Calheel said:
I'm not sure Cheney is a very good messenger for that movement.

George W, however, I think would move the needle.
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That’s why I didn’t mention Cheney, I mentioned a cumulative effect that doesn’t hinge on a single voice. Its strength is in showing any voter considering trump “look at ALL these republicans and military leaders jumping ship, maybe it’s time for you to move in another direction, too…”

That needle is moving regardless of what Cheney or Bush say, the momentum is already real and it’s growing.
 
superrific said:
I think JD's political career is over if they lose this election.

I so want Usha to leave him, take his kids and find someone better. She can do better. 100%.
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Agree. I have a few contacts who are very plugged into GOP politics and they universally HATE the guy. They all see him as a fraud, a poseur, and a lightweight. If Trump loses this election, he’s done. He’ll have a base of 3, and that will drop to zero if Usha drops his ass.
 
lawtig02 said:
Agree. I have a few contacts who are very plugged into GOP politics and they universally HATE the guy. They all see him as a fraud, a poseur, and a lightweight. If Trump loses this election, he’s done. He’ll have a base of 3, and that will drop to zero if Usha drops his ass.
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Anthony Weiner trajectory for this guy.
 
HeelingAg said:
Yes, and ... I feel that way for the kids' sake and the schadenfreude, but Usha isn't a passive participant in this.
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None of us really know what role Usha plays in all this. She was a Roberts clerk, which means she's right-of-center for sure. But JD appears to have been a different person when they got married. Maybe she wasn't ready to blow up their marriage as long as he was dog-whistling. I'm hoping that she has decided that she can't take it anymore now that he's gone full George Wallace.

It reminds me of Kellyanne and George Conway. From 2016-2020, they tried to make it work even though Kellyanne was working for Trump and George hated him. And they might have made it work for longer. From what I have heard (see below), it was George who left her because he couldn't take the bullshit anymore post - Covid and post J6. I'm hoping the same for JD Vance as for Kellyanne.

**** I used to work at Wachtell Lipton, where Conway was a partner for a very long time. I no longer have any contacts at WLRK, but I know people who know people who work there. So this is fourth-hand info, and take it for what it's worth. I tend to believe it because it makes so much sense. How could you stay married to Skeletor if she also represents something you hate with a passion?
 
HeelingAg said:
Yes, and there's an element of enablement baked in, is there not? None of the overt xenophobia, racism, and misogyny spewing forth from the campaign is surprising, in fact, it was well documented and predictable long before JD became a VP target. Usha is very smart and well connected - I have a difficult time granting benefit-of-the-doubt in an environment filled with near a decade of data. My baked in assumptions are Usha values the power, money, and privilege over the social destruction her husband and his running mate ply upon the nation. I hope I'm wrong.
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Sure, but remember: they were married before all this. Back in 2016, JD called Trump America's Hitler. He wasn't the monster that he is today, at least not publicly.

So I don't doubt that she likes the power and privilege, but it's also true that she would have had to blow up her marriage. That's not a step that a person takes lightly (especially an Indian woman, from my experience -- my ex-wife got SHIT from her family when she blew up ours). I don't think it would be unreasonable for her to be OK with the 2022 version of him, OK enough not to divorce him. But not only is he much worse, but the trend is line is mind-boggling.

It's also possible that she's fine with all this. Dinesh D'Souza sure is. But I hope she's not and she divorces his ass and then he goes into the manosphere complaining about how women are b***** and the manosphere is like, "GFTOH you weird loser. Nobody wants to hang out with your weird ass" and then eventually JD has to confess his sins.
 
superrific said:
Sure, but remember: they were married before all this. Back in 2016, JD called Trump America's Hitler. He wasn't the monster that he is today, at least not publicly.

So I don't doubt that she likes the power and privilege, but it's also true that she would have had to blow up her marriage. That's not a step that a person takes lightly (especially an Indian woman, from my experience -- my ex-wife got SHIT from her family when she blew up ours). I don't think it would be unreasonable for her to be OK with the 2022 version of him, OK enough not to divorce him. But not only is he much worse, but the trend is line is mind-boggling.

It's also possible that she's fine with all this. Dinesh D'Souza sure is. But I hope she's not and she divorces his ass and then he goes into the manosphere complaining about how women are b***** and the manosphere is like, "GFTOH you weird loser. Nobody wants to hang out with your weird ass" and then eventually JD has to confess his sins.
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Isn’t it more likely she dumps him due to him not reaching their collective ambition, and she’s looking for a better wagon to hitch to? He’ll be severely damaged goods if Trump goes down. But she’ll still be blank slate effectively.

All this to say they’ve likely been well resigned to the dark turns this campaign could take and their commitment to stoking the fires. The power gained justifies it all.
 
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