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2024 Presidential Election | ELECTION DAY 2024

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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  • Politics 
aGDevil2k said:
Yeah that conflicts what someone was reporting on the campaign on Friday (they feel hopeful about NC, more confident about GA and think Arizona is not overly likely this time)
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Tried googling this, but couldn't find anything. Do you have a link?
 
05C40 said:
If North Carolina isn't going to go blue with someone like Mark Robinson at the top of the state ticket, then the Democratic Party should just stop spending money here.
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Trump won by 74,483 votes in 2020. I predict that number to be microscopic this year and/or Harris pulls it off. Since 2020, NC has averaged 99,000 people moving into the state. Considering the continuing booming growth of the major cities/suburbs and everything else that has happened since 2020, I truly believe Harris has a legit shot to take the state.
 
05C40 said:
If North Carolina isn't going to go blue with someone like Mark Robinson at the top of the state ticket, then the Democratic Party should just stop spending money here.
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Unfortunately it’s not the gubernatorial race that draws people to the polls or predicts the outcome of the presidential race. We saw in the last two elections that there was no correlation between which party won the presidential race and which party won the gubernatorial race in NC. Trump vastly over-performed the Republican gubernatorial candidate each time.
 
I've meant to post this before but kept forgetting to do it. I frequently drive past the NC Democratic Party Headquarters and the Republican Party Headquarters on Hillsborough Street in Raleigh. On the lawn of the Dem party headquarters are a lot of signs - all the major candidates, including a Teamsters for Harris sign. On the lawn of the Pub party headquarters are hardly any signs. There is no Robinson sign (no surprise there) and there is no Trump sign (is surprising to me).
 
aGDevil2k said:
Yeah that conflicts what someone was reporting on the campaign on Friday (they feel hopeful about NC, more confident about GA and think Arizona is not overly likely this time)
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At this point it feels like we are waiting for a 3-point shot to fall while down 2 late in a game. Media needs to print something hence the chattering from "insiders".
 

From last week but still important to remember

“This thing’s very close. It’s a margin-of-error race,” Plouffe added.

Plouffe said he would rather be Harris than Trump at this stage of the race, though it remains very close. He said he was hopeful for the Democrat’s chances, looking at Harris’s strength among some Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters.

“I think Kamala Harris may surprise at the end of the day with either straight-up Republicans or independents who are essentially Republicans. We’re seeing a continued strength there, and that matters a great deal, given how big those cohorts are,” he said.


“But listen: I think it may be that our internal data is exactly right. But if I were to hazard a guess, I think it may be undercounting her strength amongst Republican-leaning independents. So, we won’t put that in the bank, but let’s hope that’s right,” he later added.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Unfortunately it’s not the gubernatorial race that draws people to the polls or predicts the outcome of the presidential race. We saw in the last two elections that there was no correlation between which party won the presidential race and which party won the gubernatorial race in NC. Trump vastly over-performed the Republican gubernatorial candidate each time.
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Exactly. North Carolina will reject Robinson soundly, but lots of people will be splitting their tickets.
 
altmin said:
I have absolutely nothing to lose if Trump is elected and I am terrified.
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Everybody in the world has something to lose if Trump is elected.

Try this scenario out: Trump enacts tariffs. The tariffs are met with retaliatory tariffs. The US economy craters, inflation runs rampant. Tax receipts will be down, and social safety net expenditures way up. And Trump, congenitally unable to admit he was wrong, decides to have the US declare bankruptcy (in essence, by not raising debt ceiling) to screw foreigners. And then we get a worldwide economic collapse.

I wish the rest of the world would get to work on finding a different reserve currency. It is extremely dangerous to have so much financial infrastructure concentrated in a country that, best case scenario, is a hair's width from electing a complete and utter madman who understands nothing about the world.
 
aGDevil2k said:

From last week but still important to remember

“This thing’s very close. It’s a margin-of-error race,” Plouffe added.

Plouffe said he would rather be Harris than Trump at this stage of the race, though it remains very close. He said he was hopeful for the Democrat’s chances, looking at Harris’s strength among some Republicans and Republican-leaning independent voters.

“I think Kamala Harris may surprise at the end of the day with either straight-up Republicans or independents who are essentially Republicans. We’re seeing a continued strength there, and that matters a great deal, given how big those cohorts are,” he said.


“But listen: I think it may be that our internal data is exactly right. But if I were to hazard a guess, I think it may be undercounting her strength amongst Republican-leaning independents. So, we won’t put that in the bank, but let’s hope that’s right,” he later added.
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two weeks ago but sure. I'd be curious to know if the campaign internals are still what they were two weeks ago. I suspect they are, but who knows.

Interestingly, I was called for a survey over the weekend. The interviewer sure seemed like he was a Dem. When I would interrupt him as he went though the choices of candidates to say, "the Dem," he seemed to be put in a good mood by that. That alarmed me a little bit, because it might explain why MAGAs don't like phone polls and that problem might still be there. Just a little bit. It's also possible that he was tired and liked having a respondent as efficient as me. Or that he is trained to do that no matter who says what, because positivity keeps me on the call? Point is -- I have no point. It's just a FWIW.
 


Trump spends a surprising amount of time being offended on behalf of Joe Biden these days.
 
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