2025 & 2026 Elections | Blue Wave 2025 results

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farce© said:
It's not my district, but based on all the signs I saw on the way to SouthPark, I'd have thought Bokhari was a shoe-in. I guess people were tired of her snark.

I voted for a Republican for an at-large seat but he lost anyway.
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The Owens signs outnumbered the Bokhari signs in my neighborhood around Park Road Shipping Center, but yeah things start skewing more to the right as you get into SourhPark (she also lives over that way so she has a lot of friends there)..

I also voted for Peacock.
 
I'm curious to know how many people changed their vote from Pub in 2024 to Dem in 2025 vs. whether Dems voters were just more motivated to show up for this particular off-year election.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
I'm curious to know how many people changed their vote from Pub in 2024 to Dem in 2025 vs. whether Dems voters were just more motivated to show up for this particular off-year election.
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I'd be more interested in number of new voters. Getting the previously uninterested involved will mean more in the long run than how the current pile is split up. Not the best election to judge and more seldom has there been the same kind of motivation.
 
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nycfan said:
I have a note of caution for the justifiable Democratic exuberance about the results last night — using the top line Democratic margin in the VA governor's race likely overstates the blue shift from 2024 to 2025. The GOP put up a very weak candidate and Trump couldn’t even be bothered to provide her one of his dozens of generic Truth Social endorsements.

On the flip side, the Dems had a damaged candidate for AG who probably couldn’t have won absent a blue tsunami in the state. I don’t know what the data scientists would say but my instinct based on decades of close poll watching is that we should look at the Lt Gov race (or the average margin of victory for the three candidates) rather than just the top line to get a better sense of the blue shift adjusted for local candidate issues.

Spanberger +15
Hashmi +11
Jones + 5.5

Avg margin + 10.5

So the average margin and Hashmi margin are really close — I would peg that as the Virginia blue shift. D +10.5 or +11. That is still significantly better than the 2017 shift after Trump’s first election.

in 2016, Clinton was +5

in 2017 Northum was +9, LtGov +5 and AG +5.5 [avg +6.5]

in 2020, Biden was +10

In 2021, Youngkin was +2, Sears and Miyares were +1

in 2024, Harris was +6
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There are multiple national data points underlying the exuberance but one data point stands out: Trump’s favorability rating matters and electoral consequences will follow.
 
BTW other than the texts, what has Jay Jones done wrong that make some (including some here) call him a dirtbag and despicable?
 
StrangePackage said:
This is the man who suggested we euthanize the homeless, correct?
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Higher standards? Sure. Look at the conviction record of the lunatic in the White House.
Jay's private texts were awful and having them publicly exposed was humiliating for him, but no worse than the tweets the President has made about Paul Pelosi and more to the ENTIRE WORLD.
 
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