2025 & 2026 Elections

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The dem in district 1 just pulled ahead by 3 points with 37% of the vote reporting. Will probably still lose but man it would be sweet to get Gaetz' seat.
 
superrific said:
I didn't realize that was DeSantis' old district. And I didn't know that the Dems didn't even run a candidate in 2022. Still, it's hard to get too excited about losing by 10.
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It actually is - because it's a canary. 10 points in a massively gerrymandered seat like that means a lot for swing districts. I mean...just imagine if every district went 20 points to the left....it would be a very blue world.
 
superrific said:
The dem in district 1 just pulled ahead by 3 points with 37% of the vote reporting. Will probably still lose but man it would be sweet to get Gaetz' seat.
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Nearly tied now and dropping but closer than anticipated. 56% of vote in for the Dem part of district, 40-46% in Red parts.
 
aGDevil2k said:
It actually is - because it's a canary. 10 points in a massively gerrymandered seat like that means a lot for swing districts. I mean...just imagine if every district went 20 points to the left....it would be a very blue world.
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I know, but that assumes linearity. I'm not sure if that's a good assumption for heavily partisan districts. When I say not sure, I mean just that -- I don't know, but I wouldn't assume it to be true. And I know you know what I mean by linearity.
 
nycfan said:
Nearly tied now and dropping but closer than anticipated. 56% of vote in for the Dem part of district, 40-46% in Red parts.
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I've always wondered about this real-time analysis. The really detailed analyses like the Needle are fine-tuned down to the neighborhood level, IIRC, but a lot of the time we say things like this -- most of the outstanding vote is in red (or blue) areas. That's not sound. If a county is really 65-35, but after 80% of the vote is counted it's 70-30, it means the remaining 20% will be favorable to the underdog even though the county itself isn't close.

That said, it seems anecdotally like that analysis usually holds. Maybe it's because votes are actually fairly evenly distributed across counties? Or at least the various enclaves are?
 
superrific said:
I've always wondered about this real-time analysis. The really detailed analyses like the Needle are fine-tuned down to the neighborhood level, IIRC, but a lot of the time we say things like this -- most of the outstanding vote is in red (or blue) areas. That's not sound. If a county is really 65-35, but after 80% of the vote is counted it's 70-30, it means the remaining 20% will be favorable to the underdog even though the county itself isn't close.

That said, it seems anecdotally like that analysis usually holds. Maybe it's because votes are actually fairly evenly distributed across counties? Or at least the various enclaves are?
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And the Dems just lit $10M on fire in district 6. It's not that much money, but man do we have to stop pouring resources into quixotic longshots. Remember when Amy McGrath was going to beat Mitch McConnell?
 
superrific said:
And the Dems just lit $10M on fire in district 6. It's not that much money, but man do we have to stop pouring resources into quixotic longshots. Remember when Amy McGrath was going to beat Mitch McConnell?
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Getting close was the realistic goa in a +30 district — create the feeling of the red tide going out. Not sure it’ll that was worth the money — probably entirely depends on the Wisconsin race. If GOP wins that, the story shifts to the GOP winning despite first few months of Trump. Dems win and the focus is on (1) is Musk toxic and (2) +20 blue shift in Florida specials.
 
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