2025-2026 NBA Thread

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Wemby is so unique in what he can do at his size. There's never been anyone like him. I think he's on an early trajectory to be in that argument/discussion for best ever.
 
PTOHeel said:
Wemby is so unique in what he can do at his size. There's never been anyone like him. I think he's on an early trajectory to be in that argument/discussion for best ever.
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Just imagine if he puts on 50 or 60 lbs of muscle while keeping his athleticism.
 
Would be fun to see Wilt vs Wembanyama, at their peaks, controlling for era and training techniques etc.

Two aliens going at it.
 
superrific said:
That's unknowable. Not by you, me, or anyone else. If you just want to go with background probabilities -- i.e. there have been X all-NBA players and most of them did not sniff GOAT debate -- I mean fine, but that's ignoring the reasons why Wemby is different.

We could, of course, fall back to the perhaps more boring but much more defensible position that there is no GOAT because players are incomparable over different time periods.
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Probability is not broadly "unknowable" for something like this; it can be somewhat objectively assessed based on known factors.

Wemby certainly has skills that make it possible he could be considered the GOAT one day, but to enter the GOAT discussion he would need to sustain an elite (1st team all-NBA with at least multiple MVPs) level of play for 10+ years, win probably 3+ titles, etc. He is freakishly good, with a package of skills that maybe no one else has ever had, but his chances of being considered the GOAT at the end of his career are still relatively small. Plenty of players - Dr. J, Shaq, Durant, Giannis - have taken the NBA by storm with an insane combination of skill and athleticism that no one else had quite replicated before but are not going to end their careers in the GOAT debate, for various reasons - health, decline, lack of team success, etc. Wemby has yet to win a title and we already know there is reasonable concern about health issues preventing him from ever having the longevity of guys like MJ and Lebron.

Among active (non-Lebron) players, he is in a small group of players who have any remote chance of being considered the GOAT one day. SGA, Jokic, Wemby, and Doncic (in no particular order) are at the top of that list. (If I had to rank that list in order of likelihood to end their career in the GOAT debate, I would rank it Wemby, SGA, Jokic, Doncic.) I'm candidly not sure anyone else is on it, unless you want to throw Cooper Flagg in there because he's so young (but personally I think it's a stretch). Wemby might have something like a 5-10% chance of being in the GOAT discussion when he retires, and that still might be easily the highest chance of any non-Lebron current player.
 
rodoheel said:
Probability is not broadly "unknowable" for something like this; it can be somewhat objectively assessed based on known factors.

Wemby certainly has skills that make it possible he could be considered the GOAT one day, but to enter the GOAT discussion he would need to sustain an elite (1st team all-NBA with at least multiple MVPs) level of play for 10+ years, win probably 3+ titles, etc. He is freakishly good, with a package of skills that maybe no one else has ever had, but his chances of being considered the GOAT at the end of his career are still relatively small. Plenty of players - Dr. J, Shaq, Durant, Giannis - have taken the NBA by storm with an insane combination of skill and athleticism that no one else had quite replicated before but are not going to end their careers in the GOAT debate, for various reasons - health, decline, lack of team success, etc. Wemby has yet to win a title and we already know there is reasonable concern about health issues preventing him from ever having the longevity of guys like MJ and Lebron.

Among active (non-Lebron) players, he is in a small group of players who have any remote chance of being considered the GOAT one day. SGA, Jokic, Wemby, and Doncic (in no particular order) are at the top of that list. (If I had to rank that list in order of likelihood to end their career in the GOAT debate, I would rank it Wemby, SGA, Jokic, Doncic.) I'm candidly not sure anyone else is on it, unless you want to throw Cooper Flagg in there because he's so young (but personally I think it's a stretch). Wemby might have something like a 5-10% chance of being in the GOAT discussion when he retires, and that still might be easily the highest chance of any non-Lebron current player.
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Well, that's what I meant by background probabilities. It's a trivial point to say "most people are not GOAT so anyone's chances of being GOAT are small." If you leave that always-applicable point aside, I would go back to unknowability because Wemby is unique.

I really don't understand how SGA can be included in this discussion. Jokic has a way better claim than he does. Also SGA will hopefully see his effectiveness diminished if they ever decide to call offensive fouls any more, and if he no longer gets to the FT line more than anyone. I hate his game and he's a creation of officiating lenience. Can you imagine if Wade or young Lebron or MJ were allowed to just barrel over defenders and get an and-one? SGA basically commits offensive fouls almost every time he drives or catches the ball. Yuck.
 
superrific said:
Well, that's what I meant by background probabilities. It's a trivial point to say "most people are not GOAT so anyone's chances of being GOAT are small." If you leave that always-applicable point aside, I would go back to unknowability because Wemby is unique.

I really don't understand how SGA can be included in this discussion. Jokic has a way better claim than he does. Also SGA will hopefully see his effectiveness diminished if they ever decide to call offensive fouls any more, and if he no longer gets to the FT line more than anyone. I hate his game and he's a creation of officiating lenience. Can you imagine if Wade or young Lebron or MJ were allowed to just barrel over defenders and get an and-one? SGA basically commits offensive fouls almost every time he drives or catches the ball. Yuck.
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What I'm saying is that even if you acknowledge that Wemby has a vastly greater chance to be the GOAT than almost every other NBA player, the chances are still very small in a relative sense. 99.9% of current NBA players have 0% chance to be the GOAT. Most of that 0.1% with any chance probably have, like, a 1% chance. Having a 5-10% chance of being the GOAT at age 22 is absolutely astounding and takes an incredible talent like Wemby to even say that.

I don't begrudge anyone feeling however they want about SGA's game, aesthetically, but he is far more than just a foul-baiting scammer. He is putting up historic numbers and plays for a franchise that just won the title last year is positioned incredibly well to contend for the next 5 years. He might be about to win his second straight MVP, and very likely will have his third straight top-2 MVP finish. Jokic certainly has a better case today, but that doesn't mean he will 5 years from now. There is a world in which, 5 years from now, SGA has 3 MVPs and 4-5 titles, matching Jokic in the former and well exceeding him in the latter. I don't think that's particularly likely, but I don't think it's crazy unrealistic either. (Also - just to be nice and pedantic about it, SGA has never led the league in FTA.)

Frankly if you want to complain about anyone being on the list, it would be Doncic, who has yet to win an MVP or a title and will need to starting stacking both extremely quickly to have even a remote chance.
 
Looks like the Hawks will steal one in the Garden.

Hawks have had Jonathan Kuminga on KAT for the last few minutes of the game and I haven’t seen KAT even touch it a single time. Astounding.
 
Total Knicks collapse in the 4th.

People here not too happy with Bridges, he could’ve helped himself there. He had them on their heels, I thought he should’ve taken it straight to the hole.
 
But for a couple inches and a few lbs, Donte Divincenzo and Christian Braun are an NBA mirror test.
 
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Watching the Wolves vs. the Nuggets, and listening to the announcers, I couldn’t get over how much Brian Scalabrine sounds like Jesse “The Body” Ventura.
 
rodoheel said:
What I'm saying is that even if you acknowledge that Wemby has a vastly greater chance to be the GOAT than almost every other NBA player, the chances are still very small in a relative sense. 99.9% of current NBA players have 0% chance to be the GOAT. Most of that 0.1% with any chance probably have, like, a 1% chance. Having a 5-10% chance of being the GOAT at age 22 is absolutely astounding and takes an incredible talent like Wemby to even say that.

I don't begrudge anyone feeling however they want about SGA's game, aesthetically, but he is far more than just a foul-baiting scammer. He is putting up historic numbers and plays for a franchise that just won the title last year is positioned incredibly well to contend for the next 5 years. He might be about to win his second straight MVP, and very likely will have his third straight top-2 MVP finish. Jokic certainly has a better case today, but that doesn't mean he will 5 years from now. There is a world in which, 5 years from now, SGA has 3 MVPs and 4-5 titles, matching Jokic in the former and well exceeding him in the latter. I don't think that's particularly likely, but I don't think it's crazy unrealistic either. (Also - just to be nice and pedantic about it, SGA has never led the league in FTA.)

Frankly if you want to complain about anyone being on the list, it would be Doncic, who has yet to win an MVP or a title and will need to starting stacking both extremely quickly to have even a remote chance.
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1. I'm no Doncic fan. Don't confuse my omission of comments about him as an endorsement. But Doncic is ahead of SGA on an age-by-age basis. At age 20, Doncic put up 28 a game. SGA's rookie year was his age 20, and he scored like 10 a game or something like that. He didn't get to 28 ppg until he was 24. Doncic also doesn't play as much defense and his effort level is inconsistent. But he's the one guy currently in the league with even a puncher's chance of catching Lebron in points scored, and while career counting stats aren't the core of GOATness, they are relevant.

2. I guess the thing about Jokic versus SGA goes to what GOAT means. MJ reinvented the guard position. That's not what makes him GOAT -- it's the byproduct of being so great in the first place. In any event, MJ was unlike those who came before. Lebron also reinvented the SF/PF position. Again, that's not the main calling card but rather a byproduct. In both cases, you can look at those guys and say, "damn, this has never been done before."

I don't think SGA has any of that going on. He's basically DWade with a better 3 point jumper and more generous officiating. He's Kobe, who passes a bit more and is a better teammate.

Jokic, of course, definitely does have that claim. Steph too. Those guys, like the other GOAT candidates, are distinct and to the extent they have become familiar, it's only because everyone is trying to copy them.

Wemby also has that claim. He is different.

3. I understand the background probability point, as I've said a couple of times. Yes, the default is that any player is exceedingly unlikely to be GOAT. Put that aside because it's an almost trivial point -- it's just a base rate that we would factor out and then put back in during analysis.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Watching the Wolves vs. the Nuggets, and listening to the announcers, I couldn’t get over how much Brian Scalabrine sounds like Jesse “The Body” Ventura.
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And how much Austin Rivers won’t STFU and stop stepping on everyone’s lines. Damn that dude is annoying.
 
superrific said:
1. I'm no Doncic fan. Don't confuse my omission of comments about him as an endorsement. But Doncic is ahead of SGA on an age-by-age basis. At age 20, Doncic put up 28 a game. SGA's rookie year was his age 20, and he scored like 10 a game or something like that. He didn't get to 28 ppg until he was 24. Doncic also doesn't play as much defense and his effort level is inconsistent. But he's the one guy currently in the league with even a puncher's chance of catching Lebron in points scored, and while career counting stats aren't the core of GOATness, they are relevant.

2. I guess the thing about Jokic versus SGA goes to what GOAT means. MJ reinvented the guard position. That's not what makes him GOAT -- it's the byproduct of being so great in the first place. In any event, MJ was unlike those who came before. Lebron also reinvented the SF/PF position. Again, that's not the main calling card but rather a byproduct. In both cases, you can look at those guys and say, "damn, this has never been done before."

I don't think SGA has any of that going on. He's basically DWade with a better 3 point jumper and more generous officiating. He's Kobe, who passes a bit more and is a better teammate.

Jokic, of course, definitely does have that claim. Steph too. Those guys, like the other GOAT candidates, are distinct and to the extent they have become familiar, it's only because everyone is trying to copy them.

Wemby also has that claim. He is different.

3. I understand the background probability point, as I've said a couple of times. Yes, the default is that any player is exceedingly unlikely to be GOAT. Put that aside because it's an almost trivial point -- it's just a base rate that we would factor out and then put back in during analysis.
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It is your subjective opinion that the GOAT has to be someone who revolutionized the position they play by the standards you have imposed for doing so. That's fine, but not everyone shares your opinion. If SGA wins 7 titles. 4 MVPs, and 6 Finals MVPs or something like that, the fact that he was "only" a better passing and nicer Kobe (leaving aside that this characterization ignores, among other things, that he is a far more efficient scorer than Kobe ever was) is not going to keep him out of the debate. I understand your distaste for SGA's style, which is shared by many, but I think you're letting that color your objectivity as to the reasons why SGA could possibly (though not likely) work his way into the GOAT debate.

As to the last point - if you had to assign a percentage chance to the likelihood that Wemby will be considered the GOAT by a material number of people when he retires, what would you say? If your answer is "over 50%" I think that's absurd, and ignores how incredibly difficult it will be for Wemby to attain the individual success, team success, and longevity/health required, even acknowledging his otherworldly skills. If you tend to agree with me that it's somewhere in the 5-10% range - or even like 25% - then why did you disagree with Bigs' statement that it is "possible but not probable" that Wemby will be considered the GOAT one day?

Also, BTW - saying anyone gets a more generous whistle than DWade - the guy who legendarily got just about the most friendly whistle of all time in route to his first title - is a stretch. I'll just note that Lebron. MJ, and DWade all had multiple seasons where they shot more than 10 FT per game. SGA has only done it once so far and I suspect it's unlikely to happen again.
 
rodoheel said:
It is your subjective opinion that the GOAT has to be someone who revolutionized the position they play by the standards you have imposed for doing so. That's fine, but not everyone shares your opinion. If SGA wins 7 titles. 4 MVPs, and 6 Finals MVPs or something like that, the fact that he was "only" a better passing and nicer Kobe (leaving aside that this characterization ignores, among other things, that he is a far more efficient scorer than Kobe ever was) is not going to keep him out of the debate. I understand your distaste for SGA's style, which is shared by many, but I think you're letting that color your objectivity as to the reasons why SGA could possibly (though not likely) work his way into the GOAT debate.

As to the last point - if you had to assign a percentage chance to the likelihood that Wemby will be considered the GOAT by a material number of people when he retires, what would you say? If your answer is "over 50%" I think that's absurd, and ignores how incredibly difficult it will be for Wemby to attain the individual success, team success, and longevity/health required, even acknowledging his otherworldly skills. If you tend to agree with me that it's somewhere in the 5-10% range - or even like 25% - then why did you disagree with Bigs' statement that it is "possible but not probable" that Wemby will be considered the GOAT one day?

Also, BTW - saying anyone gets a more generous whistle than DWade - the guy who legendarily got just about the most friendly whistle of all time in route to his first title - is a stretch. I'll just note that Lebron. MJ, and DWade all had multiple seasons where they shot more than 10 FT per game. SGA has only done it once so far and I suspect it's unlikely to happen again.
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1. No, I'm not saying that revolutionizing is a firm requirement. I'm just saying it's unlikely for someone to be GOAT good without doing so.
2. Yes, DWade got a ridiculous whistle in 2005. But with SGA it's not so much the calls he gets as much as the fouls he commits that aren't called. Even 10 years ago he would have fouled out in the first half of most games with his offensive antics.
3. This last point is just not worth talking about. I regret saying that it's unknowable whether possible or probable because obviously my thinking on this point is idiosyncratic.

My mental model goes something like this: estimate every player's likelihood to become the GOAT. Sum them up. Now assign a probability P that anyone currently playing will be GOAT. Divide the individual probabilities by that scaling factor so that all individual GOAT probabilities sum up to P. Now that you have the scaling factor, you don't need to talk about it any more. It's just there.

So yes, the odds of any player being GOAT, even Wemby, are small. But if you insist on keeping that scaling factor in the model all the time, then you can never say anything really interesting because the scaling factor will swamp the variations between players. Maybe this makes no sense. I promise you it's coherent. This just might be one of those times where my natural intuition is counter-intuitive for other people. It really doesn't matter. We're all saying the same thing on this point.
 
superrific said:
1. No, I'm not saying that revolutionizing is a firm requirement. I'm just saying it's unlikely for someone to be GOAT good without doing so.
2. Yes, DWade got a ridiculous whistle in 2005. But with SGA it's not so much the calls he gets as much as the fouls he commits that aren't called. Even 10 years ago he would have fouled out in the first half of most games with his offensive antics.
3. This last point is just not worth talking about. I regret saying that it's unknowable whether possible or probable because obviously my thinking on this point is idiosyncratic.

My mental model goes something like this: estimate every player's likelihood to become the GOAT. Sum them up. Now assign a probability P that anyone currently playing will be GOAT. Divide the individual probabilities by that scaling factor so that all individual GOAT probabilities sum up to P. Now that you have the scaling factor, you don't need to talk about it any more. It's just there.

So yes, the odds of any player being GOAT, even Wemby, are small. But if you insist on keeping that scaling factor in the model all the time, then you can never say anything really interesting because the scaling factor will swamp the variations between players. Maybe this makes no sense. I promise you it's coherent. This just might be one of those times where my natural intuition is counter-intuitive for other people. It really doesn't matter. We're all saying the same thing on this point.
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You can’t penalize a guy for getting calls.
 
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