2026 Midterm Elections

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The Texas Senate District #9 had the following vote totals:
  • 2026 Run-off for the Special Election - 94,880
  • 2025 Special Election Primary - 118,912 (52.43% went to the two Republicans)
  • 2022 General Election - 277,883 (60% GOP)
  • 2018 General Election - 244,793 (54% GOP)
I doubt this Special Election tells us a ton about how this district goes in November; it tells us that this Republican likely is unpopular and in trouble in a low turn-out race.

It may tell us that the GOP and Trump are not popular today.
 
Zoo_View said:
The Texas Senate District #9 had the following vote totals:
  • 2026 Run-off for the Special Election - 94,880
  • 2025 Special Election Primary - 118,912 (52.43% went to the two Republicans)
  • 2022 General Election - 277,883 (60% GOP)
  • 2018 General Election - 244,793 (54% GOP)
I doubt this Special Election tells us a ton about how this district goes in November; it tells us that this Republican likely is unpopular and in trouble in a low turn-out race.

It may tell us that the GOP and Trump are not popular today.
Click to expand...
It isn't supposed to tell us how this district is going to vote in November. It tells us a fair amount about the national political mood.

This is what I've been saying for a year. In a midterm election with an unpopular president, there will be surprises. Some seats that are considered "safe" (i.e. "likely" in polling parlance) can flip. I predict the Dems take at least one Senate seat this year that was seen as probably not competitive this time last year. I don't know whether that will be AK or TX or IA or maybe a surprise (it's stlil too early to predict everywhere).

And the GOP is going to need a HUGE shift in the national mood to come close to keeping the House.
 
Zoo_View said:
The Texas Senate District #9 had the following vote totals:
  • 2026 Run-off for the Special Election - 94,880
  • 2025 Special Election Primary - 118,912 (52.43% went to the two Republicans)
  • 2022 General Election - 277,883 (60% GOP)
  • 2018 General Election - 244,793 (54% GOP)
I doubt this Special Election tells us a ton about how this district goes in November; it tells us that this Republican likely is unpopular and in trouble in a low turn-out race.

It may tell us that the GOP and Trump are not popular today.
Click to expand...
Trump felt that this state Senate race was so important that he actually publicly endorsed the GQPer and urged his MAGAs to turnout and vote for the GQPer.

It may not mean there will be a Texas blue wave in November, but I do think it may serve as a canary in the coal mine for GQPers in nationwide races come November.
 
superrific said:
It isn't supposed to tell us how this district is going to vote in November. It tells us a fair amount about the national political mood.

This is what I've been saying for a year. In a midterm election with an unpopular president, there will be surprises. Some seats that are considered "safe" (i.e. "likely" in polling parlance) can flip. I predict the Dems take at least one Senate seat this year that was seen as probably not competitive this time last year. I don't know whether that will be AK or TX or IA or maybe a surprise (it's stlil too early to predict everywhere).

And the GOP is going to need a HUGE shift in the national mood to come close to keeping the House.
Click to expand...
I always await your brilliant insight with bated breath. Thank you for your excellent insight. I’ve never before seen such insight.
 
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