2026 Midterm Elections

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Geisterfahrer said:
Pretty facile analysis given the margin, eeyore.
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Yeah, there’s no way that explains the margin here. Veteran Texas GOP operatives have called this an earthquake. 30 point swings don’t happen just because a candidate has minor baggage. It’s Texas. This is mainly about Hispanic voters repoloarizing to Dems after 2024, though Rehmet also outperformed Clinton 2016 in terms of Hispanic voters.

It’s also not just nominating a white guy. Rehmet is a union leader. The politics matter. Have we not learned the lesson of treating politics as a purely aesthetic game? Ignoring coalition trends is what led to so many shocked liberals in 2016 and 2024.

You can see what Rehmet highlights from his background on his campaign website: Taylor Rehmet | Texas SD 9
 
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Paine said:
Yeah, there’s no way that explains the margin here. Veteran Texas GOP operatives have called this an earthquake. 30 point swings don’t happen just because a candidate has minor baggage. It’s Texas. This is mainly about Hispanic voters repoloarizing to Dems after 2024, though Rehmet also outperformed Clinton 2016 in terms of Hispanic voters.

It’s also not just nominating a white guy. Rehmet is a union leader. The politics matter. Have we not learned the lesson of treating politics as a purely aesthetic game?

You can see what Rehmet highlights from his background on his campaign website: Taylor Rehmet | Texas SD 9
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He sounds like 41 yo Graham Platner who is running for the seat of the concerned and deeply troubled Susan Collins in Maine. If he can defeat Chuck Schumer's primary pick who is 78 years old and as dull as Collins, then we have a good chance to flip Maine.
 
heelinhell said:
He sounds like 41 yo Graham Platner who is running for the seat of the concerned and deeply troubled Susan Collins in Maine. If he can defeat Chuck Schumer's primary pick who is 78 years old and as dull as Collins, then we have a good chance to flip Maine.
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Yep, the class politics matters. Candidates like Platner in Maine or Rehmet in Texas are culturally and politically legible to the voters they’re trying to win. They have a clear social location and a material story to tell.

If this were just about being a “white guy,” Beto O’Rourke would’ve won in 2018. He didn’t because aesthetics aren’t a substitute for rooted politics.

What I don’t understand is how altmin can argue that minor Republican baggage explains a 30-point swing while ignoring the actual Democratic candidate who produced the victory. That’s an asymmetric analysis.

Sure, national mood probably helped at the margins, but how you run a campaign and what you choose to emphasize still matters. Otherwise, politics is just vibes and accidents, and that clearly doesn’t explain what happened here.

P.S. I am beyond relieved that Platner’s campaign has kept up the momentum following the smears. IIRC, he outraised Mills 2:1 last quarter.
 
Paine said:
Yep, the class politics matters. Candidates like Platner in Maine or Rehmet in Texas are culturally and politically legible to the voters they’re trying to win. They have a clear social location and a material story to tell.

If this were just about being a “white guy,” Beto O’Rourke would’ve won in 2018. He didn’t because aesthetics aren’t a substitute for rooted politics.

What I don’t understand is how altmin can argue that minor Republican baggage explains a 30-point swing while ignoring the actual Democratic candidate who produced the victory. That’s an asymmetric analysis.

Sure, national mood probably helped at the margins, but how you run a campaign and what you choose to emphasize still matters. Otherwise, politics is just vibes and accidents, and that clearly doesn’t explain what happened here.

P.S. I am beyond relieved that Platner’s campaign has kept up the momentum following the smears. IIRC, he outraised Mills 2:1 last quarter.
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In the Maine race, I'm worried it will be a NC Chuck Schumer redux. He pushed out Jeff Jackson and put his thumb on Beasley and we know how that turned out. It turned a sure win into a defeat.

If Mills wins the Dem primary, then Collins is likely to keep her seat.
If Platner wins the Dem primary, then we will gain a seat in the Senate.

We need a new Dem leader in the Senate who understands that we do not need to support septuagenarians for Congress when we have very qualified dynamic younger folks to promote who will lead us going into the future.
 
heelinhell said:
In the Maine race, I'm worried it will be a NC Chuck Schumer redux. He pushed out Jeff Jackson and put his thumb on Beasley and we know how that turned out. It turned a sure win into a defeat.

If Mills wins the Dem primary, then Collins is likely to keep her seat.
If Platner wins the Dem primary, then we will gain a seat in the Senate.

We need a new Dem leader in the Senate who understands that we do not need to support septuagenarians for Congress when we have very qualified dynamic younger folks to promote who will lead us going into the future.
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I share the concern. The problem with Schumer isn’t age in a vacuum so much as it is political instinct. His instincts are fossilized from when he came of age in politics. He defaults to risk avoidance and insider comfort, and we’ve seen how that plays out with your Jackson v. Beasley comp.

And it’s not just Maine. Mills isn’t the only bad candidate the DSCC has lined up. Look at Haley Stevens in Michigan. On paper she’s “safe,” but in practice she has zero ability to connect with voters.

The ground has shifted under people like Schumer, but he’s still operating out of learned helplessness. He assumes Dems can only win by playing defense instead of asking why some candidates actually move people and others don’t.
 
heelinhell said:
In the Maine race, I'm worried it will be a NC Chuck Schumer redux. He pushed out Jeff Jackson and put his thumb on Beasley and we know how that turned out. It turned a sure win into a defeat.

If Mills wins the Dem primary, then Collins is likely to keep her seat.
If Platner wins the Dem primary, then we will gain a seat in the Senate.

We need a new Dem leader in the Senate who understands that we do not need to support septuagenarians for Congress when we have very qualified dynamic younger folks to promote who will lead us going into the future.
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Your political instincts are wrong. I have no idea where you are getting these ideas, but they are incorrect.

First, NC in 2022 was never going to be a sure win. Never. It was a Republican incumbent seat in a good cycle for Pubs. The only reason it became close in the fall was abortion. That wasn't a live issue during primary season. It's like the people who say Cal Cunningham would have won but for the affair. There's essentially no evidence that at all.

Second, everyone who has piling on Schumer should take a look at where we are right now. Schumer's shutdown was the most effective political maneuver we've seen in a long while. People were complaining that he didn't hold out longer, and those people didn't have a realistic view of what could be accomplished. A minority party shutdown will never result in actual concessions. The point isn't to get policy wins; it was to change the conversation.

And boy did the conversation ever change. Suddenly affordability was on everyone's minds; health care was on everyone's minds. That is one reason why Trump is now underwater on pretty much every issue. And I think it's hilarious that Trump has basically agreed to negotiate with Schumer about ICE. So this is what will happen:

1. There will be no agreement about anything;
2. Schumer gets to come back in two weeks and say, "they said they were open to negotiating. They were not being truthful."
3. Politically, we get to dominate news cycles with ICE abuses;

Third, what gives you such tremendous insight into Maine? You support Roy Cooper running for Senate, yes? His entry into the race has turned that seat into a likely Dem. He's old. So why is Mills different?

4. This is a favorable electoral environment. We actually don't need candidates to break through. We need candidates not to fuck up, in these close races. It's different in Texas, though if I recall you are supporting Crockett, who has no chance to win and whose candidacy is not helpful. Talerico could win. Crockett cannot. It's as simple as that.
 
Paine said:
I share the concern. The problem with Schumer isn’t age in a vacuum so much as it is political instinct. His instincts are fossilized from when he came of age in politics. He defaults to risk avoidance and insider comfort, and we’ve seen how that plays out with your Jackson v. Beasley comp.

And it’s not just Maine. Mills isn’t the only bad candidate the DSCC has lined up. Look at Haley Stevens in Michigan. On paper she’s “safe,” but in practice she has zero ability to connect with voters.

The ground has shifted under people like Schumer, but he’s still operating out of learned helplessness. He assumes Dems can only win by playing defense instead of asking why some candidates actually move people and others don’t.
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Looking at the Dem primary in Michigan, there are three candidates that are polling about the same vs. GQPer Rogers in a tight race. My worry that a hotly contested 3 person Dem primary is more the problem than if just one of them were able to marshal resources to run against Rogers. My preference would be McMorrow of the three, but three Dems attacking each other is not good at this point:(
 
Paine said:
I share the concern. The problem with Schumer isn’t age in a vacuum so much as it is political instinct. His instincts are fossilized from when he came of age in politics. He defaults to risk avoidance and insider comfort, and we’ve seen how that plays out with your Jackson v. Beasley comp.

And it’s not just Maine. Mills isn’t the only bad candidate the DSCC has lined up. Look at Haley Stevens in Michigan. On paper she’s “safe,” but in practice she has zero ability to connect with voters.

The ground has shifted under people like Schumer, but he’s still operating out of learned helplessness. He assumes Dems can only win by playing defense instead of asking why some candidates actually move people and others don’t.
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Haley Stevens is not winning that primary right now. It's a healthy race. The most important thing is for the leftist to get out. That seat will be won by Dems unless we nominate a crazy on the left.

Also, it's unclear to me why you are so enthusiastic about Platner. I might have been enthusiastic about him ten years ago. Then Sinema and Fetterman happened (I was excited about both). Maybe we need less people-out-of-nowhere. Well, Sinema wasn't out of nowhere; she morphed, but Fetterman should be a cautionary tale. It's easy to blame his change on his stroke but that's not really knowable.

I'm quite sure you said the same thing about Elissa Slotkin as Haley Stevens. Or at least you didn't want Slotkin. And I see where you were coming from. But 1) she won, outrunning Kamala; and 2) she stuck her neck out with Mark Kelly and the others to deliver her message about illegal orders. Centrist doesn't mean mushy. Again, that contributed to changing the national discussion, because now we had the administration trying to explain what was wrong with Dems reminding the troops that they shouldn't obey unlawful orders.
 
heelinhell said:
Looking at the Dem primary in Michigan, there are three candidates that are polling about the same vs. GQPer Rogers in a tight race. My worry that a hotly contested 3 person Dem primary is more the problem than if just one of them were able to marshal resources to run against Rogers. My preference would be McMorrow of the three, but three Dems attacking each other is not good at this point:(
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Rogers lost to Slotkin in a favorable environment in 2024. He's not winning this race unless the Dems fuck up.

I know it's frustrating that Trump keeps winning Michigan, but other than that race, the Michigan Dems have managed to find a good spot and Michigan is once again a more-blue-than-purple state. Two Dem Senators, Dem governor, Dem legislature until last cycle, Dem ballot proposals have been winning; Dem Supreme Court justices have been winning, etc.
 
superrific said:
Your political instincts are wrong. I have no idea where you are getting these ideas, but they are incorrect.

First, NC in 2022 was never going to be a sure win. Never. It was a Republican incumbent seat in a good cycle for Pubs. The only reason it became close in the fall was abortion. That wasn't a live issue during primary season. It's like the people who say Cal Cunningham would have won but for the affair. There's essentially no evidence that at all.

Second, everyone who has piling on Schumer should take a look at where we are right now. Schumer's shutdown was the most effective political maneuver we've seen in a long while. People were complaining that he didn't hold out longer, and those people didn't have a realistic view of what could be accomplished. A minority party shutdown will never result in actual concessions. The point isn't to get policy wins; it was to change the conversation.

And boy did the conversation ever change. Suddenly affordability was on everyone's minds; health care was on everyone's minds. That is one reason why Trump is now underwater on pretty much every issue. And I think it's hilarious that Trump has basically agreed to negotiate with Schumer about ICE. So this is what will happen:

1. There will be no agreement about anything;
2. Schumer gets to come back in two weeks and say, "they said they were open to negotiating. They were not being truthful."
3. Politically, we get to dominate news cycles with ICE abuses;

Third, what gives you such tremendous insight into Maine? You support Roy Cooper running for Senate, yes? His entry into the race has turned that seat into a likely Dem. He's old. So why is Mills different?

4. This is a favorable electoral environment. We actually don't need candidates to break through. We need candidates not to fuck up, in these close races. It's different in Texas, though if I recall you are supporting Crockett, who has no chance to win and whose candidacy is not helpful. Talerico could win. Crockett cannot. It's as simple as that.
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I admire the absolute certainty you have that your opinion is superior to mine. I will not assert that your political instincts are wrong nor whether your ideas are incorrect.

I don't think I suggested that I have tremendous insight into Maine, but I do track the news in Maine when it comes to the Senate race upon which I inform an opinion. My guess is you have not been doing the same. Correct me if I am wrong.

I would be happy with either Crockett or Talerico. But given your absolute certainty that Crockett cannot win, please inform her campaign and urge her to drop out.
 
heelinhell said:
Looking at the Dem primary in Michigan, there are three candidates that are polling about the same vs. GQPer Rogers in a tight race. My worry that a hotly contested 3 person Dem primary is more the problem than if just one of them were able to marshal resources to run against Rogers. My preference would be McMorrow of the three, but three Dems attacking each other is not good at this point:(
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I've been a big fan of Mallory McMorrow for a while. She's right on most issues and delivers that message very well. She is a great candidate.


www.yahoo.com

McMorrow gets separation in latest poll for Michigan’s open U.S. Senate seat

State Sen. Mallory McMorrow is leading the Democratic primary for Michigan's open U.S. Senate seat, with 22% of likely voters backing her, while U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens and former Wayne County health official Abdul El-Sayed trail at 16.5% and 15.9% respectively, and 38% of those polled are still...
www.yahoo.com www.yahoo.com

 
Paine said:
Yep, the class politics matters. Candidates like Platner in Maine or Rehmet in Texas are culturally and politically legible to the voters they’re trying to win. They have a clear social location and a material story to tell.

If this were just about being a “white guy,” Beto O’Rourke would’ve won in 2018. He didn’t because aesthetics aren’t a substitute for rooted politics.

What I don’t understand is how altmin can argue that minor Republican baggage explains a 30-point swing while ignoring the actual Democratic candidate who produced the victory. That’s an asymmetric analysis.

Sure, national mood probably helped at the margins, but how you run a campaign and what you choose to emphasize still matters. Otherwise, politics is just vibes and accidents, and that clearly doesn’t explain what happened here.

P.S. I am beyond relieved that Platner’s campaign has kept up the momentum following the smears. IIRC, he outraised Mills 2:1 last quarter.
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Sounds like Fetterman to me....
 
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