6 Weeks Out - Post your Predictions

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rodoheel said:
Only thing that matters is the swing states. Personally I think Trump is winning Nevada and Kamala is winning Michigan. That laves five swing states. Gun to head, I would predict that Trump will take all the sun belt states (AZ, GA, NC) and at least one of the blue wall states (probably PA most likely) to win. My heart says Kamala holds the blue wall and takes either NC (Mark Robinson effect?) or GA to put an exclamation point on it.
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Nevada isn't really important. It only comes into play in some weird scenarios, like Kamala winning NC, PA and MI but losing WI.

My prediction is that Kamala wins NC and holds all three of the blue wall states in the following order of likelihood: MI, PA and WI.

Good article in Politico about the resurgence of the Meck County Dems and the work they are doing with GOTV and persuasion. The Dems could get an additional 20K votes from that. It doesn't entirely make up the the deficit from 2020, but it helps a lot.

When we look back at this election, I think migration is going to be more important than people realize. A lot of people moved out of NC to FL in the past four years. I'm going to take a guess that those people are disproportionately GOP. In fact, it seems likely to me that there has also been a partisan drain from the blue wall states -- whether it's people leaving the "tyranny" of Big Gretch or just retiring down south. It's possible that the inflow to NC has also been conservative, but I would guess that migration on net favors Dems. And that could be a fair number of votes.
 
superrific said:
Nevada isn't really important. It only comes into play in some weird scenarios, like Kamala winning NC, PA and MI but losing WI.

My prediction is that Kamala wins NC and holds all three of the blue wall states in the following order of likelihood: MI, PA and WI.

Good article in Politico about the resurgence of the Meck County Dems and the work they are doing with GOTV and persuasion. The Dems could get an additional 20K votes from that. It doesn't entirely make up the the deficit from 2020, but it helps a lot.

When we look back at this election, I think migration is going to be more important than people realize. A lot of people moved out of NC to FL in the past four years. I'm going to take a guess that those people are disproportionately GOP. In fact, it seems likely to me that there has also been a partisan drain from the blue wall states -- whether it's people leaving the "tyranny" of Big Gretch or just retiring down south. It's possible that the inflow to NC has also been conservative, but I would guess that migration on net favors Dems. And that could be a fair number of votes.
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I hope you're right, but if that partisan migration has happened in the blue wall states, it certainly isn't showing up in polling.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Small donations, volunteers, gender gaps
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Are there any objective measurements of those things in swing states specifically? Most of that feels more like good vibes than anything objective; is there any evidence that such things are predictive?
 
I predicted on the old ZZL and here months ago that Kamala would win comfortably. She’ll do it largely on the strength of female Gen Z, and women in general. Anecdotally I interact with people in that age range a good amount so I hear what some of them have to say, and I know there’s a big, underestimated tiktok presence to that effect. And it was seen in the numbers after the recent years’ reproductive rights initiatives in KS, OH, KY… stark red states that saw post-Dobbs mobilization soar for this demographic (as well as for others). And the Harris campaign and other Dem campaigns have done an effective enough job of tying candidates to that issue up and down the ballot.

The news cycle has long forgotten the absurdity and misogyny that enabled trump to just barely slither into the presidency. These young women were paying attention and they haven’t forgotten. And there’s a big number of them now aged 18-25 who feel they didn’t have a say in that election because they weren’t yet old enough to vote, and they’re highly motivated to not let that happen again.

These young women have never had a chance to vote for a female president. That is still a novel and very exciting concept to them, even if it’s not making the headlines now that it was in the lead up to 2016.

The Me-Too movement has long since cycled out of the headlines. These young women have not forgotten, and many still live it every day. The laundry list of trump’s improprieties may be old news to us, but it’s firmly on their radar. You think nobody is paying attention to the recent trump/Epstein story? They are.

Dobbs, for the real world damage it has done, is more than just a cherry on top for the political mobilization among this demographic… it’s the eye of a much bigger storm than is perceived.

They’re being underestimated and under-polled, many are likely “shy” Harris voters in swing or red states who are going to cast their ballots quietly to not have to deal with family or friends or boyfriends or husbands who don’t align with them. And they’re going to be the difference for Kamala winning going away.
 
duluoz said:
I predicted on the old ZZL and here months ago that Kamala would win comfortably. She’ll do it largely on the strength of female Gen Z, and women in general. Anecdotally I interact with people in that age range a good amount so I hear what some of them have to say, and I know there’s a big, underestimated tiktok presence to that effect. And it was seen in the numbers after the recent years’ reproductive rights initiatives in KS, OH, KY… stark red states that saw post-Dobbs mobilization soar for this demographic (as well as for others). And the Harris campaign and other Dem campaigns have done an effective enough job of tying candidates to that issue up and down the ballot.

The news cycle has long forgotten the absurdity and misogyny that enabled trump to just barely slither into the presidency. These young women were paying attention and they haven’t forgotten. And there’s a big number of them now aged 18-25 who feel they didn’t have a say in that election because they weren’t yet old enough to vote, and they’re highly motivated to not let that happen again.

These young women have never had a chance to vote for a female president. That is still a novel and very exciting concept to them, even if it’s not making the headlines now that it was in the lead up to 2016.

The Me-Too movement has long since cycled out of the headlines. These young women have not forgotten, and many still live it every day. The laundry list of trump’s improprieties may be old news to us, but it’s firmly on their radar. You think nobody is paying attention to the recent trump/Epstein story? They are.

Dobbs, for the real world damage it has done, is more than just a cherry on top for the political mobilization among this demographic… it’s the eye of a much bigger storm than is perceived.

They’re being underestimated and under-polled, many are likely “shy” Harris voters in swing or red states who are going to cast their ballots quietly to not have to deal with family or friends or boyfriends or husbands who don’t align with them. And they’re going to be the difference for Kamala winning going away.
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As it relates to that group, if I’m Kamala, I’m tempted to make Tucker’s speech from a couple of days ago into an ad. Cringe.
 
My prediction at this point is that she will win. But the better question is which state is the most problematic and could tip the election? I suspect Wisconsin.
 
uncjhodges said:
I don’t think there’s a way we win arizona but lose nevada and also win PA but lose MI
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Fair. I actually think the swing states will all swing one direction but at the last second I figured what the heck and gave Harris PA and AZ just to avoid Trump having 313 EVs or whatever it was when I swung all 7 swing states red.

Based on demographics, Wisconsin may be starting down the path following Iowa’s journey from purple to deep red …
 
I think this is the "safest" bet right now. Could obviously swing either direction from here, but do we agree this is like table stakes?


Screenshot 2024-10-25 154836.jpg
 
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