6 Weeks Out - Post your Predictions

  • Thread starter Thread starter aGDevil2k
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 85
  • Views: 2K
  • Politics 
theel4life said:
What is your deal?
Click to expand...
I am honestly answering the question, well, mostly honestly as I hedged on AZ and PA and easily could have put them in the red column, too. Swing states tend to swing the same direction … as I said, hope I’m wrong, that the polls way overcompensated for understating Trump votes previously and there are a ton of silent Dobbs voters who are registered independent ore Republican who we can’t detect by cross-checking polling, voting history and turnout data.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
I think this is the "safest" bet right now. Could obviously swing either direction from here, but do we agree this is like table stakes?


Screenshot 2024-10-25 154836.jpg
Click to expand...
Yeah I think this could be a safe bet, even still NV going red as well. I think NV, NC and GA are the hardest to predict.
 
I think that the Harris campaign has been spending way too much time in both North Carolina and Georgia, with great effect, to not win at least one of those two. I think it’s possible that it comes at the expense of Arizona, or perhaps more likely, Nevada, but that is absolutely a trade we are willing to make.
 
nycfan said:
I am honestly answering the question, well, mostly honestly as I hedged on AZ and PA and easily could have put them in the red column, too. Swing states tend to swing the same direction … as I said, hope I’m wrong, that the polls way overcompensated for understating Trump votes previously and there are a ton of silent Dobbs voters who are registered independent ore Republican who we can’t detect by cross-checking polling, voting history and turnout data.
Click to expand...
Agree with you, no way that Kamala outperforms Biden in last election.
 
The difference in 2020 and today that may impact this election:

January 6th
Dobbs
Republicans serving under Trump issuing warnings
Increase in young folks becoming eligible to vote
 
I believe that Trump is going to win. And I am now also convinced that most Americans are absolute morons.
 
I almost always vote early. I talk to everyone in line and listen.

This year was very different. I had to wait 1.5 hours and the vibe was different. The dude behind me talked to everyone around the whole time about Abbey Gate. The old lady in front of me talked very quietly about killing kids.

I very much fear Trump will win.
 
fssheels said:
Still laughing?
Click to expand...
Hell fucking yeah, I’m still laughing. You are outside of your damn mind if you think that my preferred presidential candidate losing an election is ever going to steal my joy whatsoever. Y’all voted, I voted. Y’all won, I lost. So what. I tip my cap. We’ll do it all again in four years. But I had a great damn day today. Took my two year old to Discovery Place in Huntersville and had a blast, all while my wife took part in a job interview and got an offer that will see our household income skyrocket well into top marginal rate territory. I texted a couple of family members with whom I absolutely do not see eye to eye politically that I loved ‘em. Checked in on a couple of college friends who I knew were taking the election results hard, and told ‘em I loved them, too, and that we’ll be just fine. My preferred presidential candidate lost a race, but I’ve still got everything in the world for which to be personally grateful. And I’ll spend the next four years making a concerted effort to be kinder and more compassionate and as helpful as possible to everyone around me who may be affected much more negatively than I am. So hell yeah I’m still laughing.
 
CFordUNC said:
Hell fucking yeah, I’m still laughing. You are outside of your damn mind if you think that my preferred presidential candidate losing an election is ever going to steal my joy whatsoever. Y’all voted, I voted. Y’all won, I lost. So what. I tip my cap. We’ll do it all again in four years. But I had a great damn day today. Took my two year old to Discovery Place in Huntersville and had a blast, all while my wife took part in a job interview and got an offer that will see our household income skyrocket well into top marginal rate territory. I texted a couple of family members with whom I absolutely do not see eye to eye politically that I loved ‘em. Checked in on a couple of college friends who I knew were taking the election results hard, and told ‘em I loved them, too, and that we’ll be just fine. My preferred presidential candidate lost a race, but I’ve still got everything in the world for which to be personally grateful. And I’ll spend the next four years making a concerted effort to be kinder and more compassionate and as helpful as possible to everyone around me who may be affected much more negatively than I am. So hell yeah I’m still laughing.
Click to expand...
Congrats, good deal. Just pointing out that my electoral map you laughed at was exactly right. Glad you are doing well.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top