It’s impossible to prove the counter factual one way or the other. But I think 2022 inflation coupled with Biden’s delay made 2024 toxic for any candidate.They ran an incumbent (Covid supply chain inflation) woman of color. If Dems had run Andy Bashear or some other non-incumbent man, they would have won. The 81 million who voted for Biden didn’t show of for either Hillary or Kamala. Trump can only beat a woman.