It’s impossible to prove the counter factual one way or the other. But I think 2022 inflation coupled with Biden’s delay made 2024 toxic for any candidate.
Approval/Disapproval Polls
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evrheel
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Especially for one who didn't run the gauntlet of primaries in which to build party support
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I don't think you do make a lot of people mad by taking the upper road approach to issues. The government of Israel is horrible. Full stop. People who shout things like "from the river to the sea" are equally awful. Full stop. Our goal should be to eradicate the positions of both the Israeli government AND those who target Israeli civilians.
That means cutting Israel off as an International pariah until the people of Israel use their Democracy to elect a government that isn't based in the foundational belief of eradicating Palestinians.
The people who mostly will be incensed by those statements will never vote for Democrats. The people who will appreciate the honesty will carry the day.
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He’s already grown weaker.
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They lost on trans rights. They absolutely hammered that one ad across America. Dems didn’t really run on trans rights but it was at least a factor in the loss. I agree it was mostly inflation though and some vestigial memory of Trump as a competent businessperson.
BillOfRights
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There needs to be a duh emoji
Agree - it wasn’t just inflation. The Trans ad was devastating.
In many ways it was the “hands” ad from 1990 all over again.
Devastatingly effective.
That said, inflation, inflation, inflation.
JCTarheel82
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39%... can we push it down to 35% and then 30% ?
Bigs23
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It’ll be tough.
superrific
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If he doesn't change policies and pretty fast, then I think 30% early next year will be a best case scenario for him.
With all this negative Trump polling, there was something I just saw briefly on the TV screen that could be relevant. It seems the country still supports Trump by 7 points over House Democrats. (could have been trust Trump more)
The question is: so being 100 days in the Trump mess, is it really true that Democrats can't outpoll Trump? If that is true, then that tells us something I would think about Democrats.
The question is: so being 100 days in the Trump mess, is it really true that Democrats can't outpoll Trump? If that is true, then that tells us something I would think about Democrats.
aGDevil2k
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It's cause folks are mad Dems aren't doing more even though we have no power and it's a year from campaign season
The democratic approval stats are being misunderstood because there is so much democratic anger at democratic politicians. It is not as though those people like Trump more than democrats. It is that they are mad at democrats.
In contrast, there is virtually no Republican anger at Trump. So what those approval polls are picking up is the massive erosion of independent support for Trump.
superrific
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Yeah. I'm not worried about Dem poll numbers. Midterm elections are about the incumbent anyway. Here's my current thinking.
Probability of Dems retaking House in 2026: >95%. There would have to be a miracle for the GOP to lose fewer than 10 seats.
Probability of Dems retaking Senate in 2026: ~50%. If we hadn't lost PA last year, it would be much closer to 80%.
Think 2014. Dems lost a lot of Senate seats that year in states that didn't seem ex ante to be that close. But the national trends swamped all. Dems stayed home; high propensity voters turned out for Pubs; and the Pubs won seats that they hadn't thought were in play. I have my eyes on Ohio -- would love for Tim Ryan or Sherrod Brown to run for JD's Senate seat. I think that will be a winnable race in 26. Iowa too. I would have said Florida but I can't remember seeing such a catastrophic loss of support for a state political party pretty much anywhere. I hate to mention Texas because it's been such a stupid tease for us, but eventually a Dem will win there and 26 could be the year -- especially if Pubs end up with Paxton on the ticket.
Probability of Dems retaking House in 2026: >95%. There would have to be a miracle for the GOP to lose fewer than 10 seats.
Probability of Dems retaking Senate in 2026: ~50%. If we hadn't lost PA last year, it would be much closer to 80%.
Think 2014. Dems lost a lot of Senate seats that year in states that didn't seem ex ante to be that close. But the national trends swamped all. Dems stayed home; high propensity voters turned out for Pubs; and the Pubs won seats that they hadn't thought were in play. I have my eyes on Ohio -- would love for Tim Ryan or Sherrod Brown to run for JD's Senate seat. I think that will be a winnable race in 26. Iowa too. I would have said Florida but I can't remember seeing such a catastrophic loss of support for a state political party pretty much anywhere. I hate to mention Texas because it's been such a stupid tease for us, but eventually a Dem will win there and 26 could be the year -- especially if Pubs end up with Paxton on the ticket.
Be a more apt comparison to compare him to individual Democrats. It's a lot easier to be against a generic outgroup than a specific individual. That's totally discounting any other circumstances. It might not come out much differently but it would be more meaningful.
superrific
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Usually "generic [other party]" outpolls everyone. In the 90s, by far the most successful candidates in political polls were "unnamed Republican" and "unnamed Democrat." They were probably undefeated. I think pollsters eventually stopped asking that question because it was so uninformative. I haven't seen a poll like that in a while.
That said, I really don't care about Dem approval rating right now. All politics in America is negative partisanship anyway. We'd do better if it wasn't, but that's what 2026 is going to be about. Dems could run on a one sentence platform: "we are the opposite of Trump" and probably win big.