Approval/Disapproval Polls

[altmin]

Yeah, I get it. I thought the convention was really good. I really like Harris. I took days off work and drove from out of state to NC to knock on doors for Harris and the entire Democratic ticket.

The message in 2024 wasn't enough. I have a hard time believing that focusing on issues to the left of Democratic incumbents is the best way to implement those policies.

Trump drove turnout to the right. Kamala didn't draw turnout from the left to counter it. The campaign banked on never-Trumpers and moderates and there just aren't enough to overcome Trump's populism.

Next candidate should have an easier task of drawing moderates and not facing a right wing populist cult, assuming there is an election and Trump doesn't flip off the Constitution and run again.

 

[Calheel]

They ran an incumbent (Covid supply chain inflation) woman of color. If Dems had run Andy Bashear or some other non-incumbent man, they would have won. The 81 million who voted for Biden didn’t show of for either Hillary or Kamala. Trump can only beat a woman.

It’s impossible to prove the counter factual one way or the other. But I think 2022 inflation coupled with Biden’s delay made 2024 toxic for any candidate.

 

[evrheel]

It’s impossible to prove the counter factual one way or the other. But I think 2022 inflation coupled with Biden’s delay made 2024 toxic for any candidate.

Especially for one who didn't run the gauntlet of primaries in which to build party support

 

[wmheel1287]

Do you think appealing a lot to a few people while making a lot of people mad will be better?

I don't think you do make a lot of people mad by taking the upper road approach to issues. The government of Israel is horrible. Full stop. People who shout things like "from the river to the sea" are equally awful. Full stop. Our goal should be to eradicate the positions of both the Israeli government AND those who target Israeli civilians.

That means cutting Israel off as an International pariah until the people of Israel use their Democracy to elect a government that isn't based in the foundational belief of eradicating Palestinians.

The people who mostly will be incensed by those statements will never vote for Democrats. The people who will appreciate the honesty will carry the day.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

If he feels threatened, he is likely to become more combative and more emboldened to challenge his constraints. I don't think he plans to leave office, so I don't think he will think and act like a lame duck, and Republicans (I use that term loosely) will do whatever he wants.

He’s already grown weaker.

 

[Geisterfahrer]

Inflation.

Name the positions.

They lost on trans rights. They absolutely hammered that one ad across America. Dems didn’t really run on trans rights but it was at least a factor in the loss. I agree it was mostly inflation though and some vestigial memory of Trump as a competent businessperson.

 

[BillOfRights]

 

[StrangePackage]

There needs to be a duh emoji

 

[Zoo_View]

They lost on trans rights. They absolutely hammered that one ad across America. Dems didn’t really run on trans rights but it was at least a factor in the loss. I agree it was mostly inflation though and some vestigial memory of Trump as a competent businessperson.

Agree - it wasn’t just inflation. The Trans ad was devastating.

In many ways it was the “hands” ad from 1990 all over again.

Devastatingly effective.

That said, inflation, inflation, inflation.

 

[JCTarheel82]

 

[nycfan]

 

[heelinhell]

39%... can we push it down to 35% and then 30% ?

 

[Bigs23]

39%... can we push it down to 35% and then 30% ?

It’ll be tough.

 

[superrific]

39%... can we push it down to 35% and then 30% ?

If he doesn't change policies and pretty fast, then I think 30% early next year will be a best case scenario for him.

 

[BlueSmoke]

With all this negative Trump polling, there was something I just saw briefly on the TV screen that could be relevant. It seems the country still supports Trump by 7 points over House Democrats. (could have been trust Trump more)

The question is: so being 100 days in the Trump mess, is it really true that Democrats can't outpoll Trump? If that is true, then that tells us something I would think about Democrats.

 

[aGDevil2k]

With all this negative Trump polling, there was something I just saw briefly on the TV screen that could be relevant. It seems the country still supports Trump by 7 points over House Democrats. (could have been trust Trump more)

The question is: so being 100 days in the Trump mess, is it really true that Democrats can't outpoll Trump? If that is true, then that tells us something I would think about Democrats.

It's cause folks are mad Dems aren't doing more even though we have no power and it's a year from campaign season

 

[Calheel]

With all this negative Trump polling, there was something I just saw briefly on the TV screen that could be relevant. It seems the country still supports Trump by 7 points over House Democrats.

The question is: so being 100 days in the Trump mess, is it really true that Democrats can't outpoll Trump? If that is true, then that tells us something I would think about Democrats.

The democratic approval stats are being misunderstood because there is so much democratic anger at democratic politicians. It is not as though those people like Trump more than democrats. It is that they are mad at democrats.

In contrast, there is virtually no Republican anger at Trump. So what those approval polls are picking up is the massive erosion of independent support for Trump.

 

[BlueSmoke]

Valid points. I will just say it never hurts to put the shine on the Democratic Brand. A swamp creature like Trump will always take advantage of a weak brand.

 

[superrific]

Yeah. I'm not worried about Dem poll numbers. Midterm elections are about the incumbent anyway. Here's my current thinking.

Probability of Dems retaking House in 2026: >95%. There would have to be a miracle for the GOP to lose fewer than 10 seats.
Probability of Dems retaking Senate in 2026: ~50%. If we hadn't lost PA last year, it would be much closer to 80%.

Think 2014. Dems lost a lot of Senate seats that year in states that didn't seem ex ante to be that close. But the national trends swamped all. Dems stayed home; high propensity voters turned out for Pubs; and the Pubs won seats that they hadn't thought were in play. I have my eyes on Ohio -- would love for Tim Ryan or Sherrod Brown to run for JD's Senate seat. I think that will be a winnable race in 26. Iowa too. I would have said Florida but I can't remember seeing such a catastrophic loss of support for a state political party pretty much anywhere. I hate to mention Texas because it's been such a stupid tease for us, but eventually a Dem will win there and 26 could be the year -- especially if Pubs end up with Paxton on the ticket.

 

[finesse]

With all this negative Trump polling, there was something I just saw briefly on the TV screen that could be relevant. It seems the country still supports Trump by 7 points over House Democrats. (could have been trust Trump more)

The question is: so being 100 days in the Trump mess, is it really true that Democrats can't outpoll Trump? If that is true, then that tells us something I would think about Democrats.

Be a more apt comparison to compare him to individual Democrats. It's a lot easier to be against a generic outgroup than a specific individual. That's totally discounting any other circumstances. It might not come out much differently but it would be more meaningful.