Approval/Disapproval Polls

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lawtig02 said:
If I were in control, my headline for this one would have been "Consumer Confidence Sinks to Lowest Level Since the Last Time America was Stupid Enough to Put Donald Trump in the White House."


Consumer confidence sank 7.9 points in April to a reading of 86, the Conference Board said in its latest survey released Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since May 2020 and a larger decline than economists had projected. The survey’s Expectations Index, which captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted 12.5 points this month to 54.4, the lowest level in 13 years.

Meanwhile, the share of Americans anticipating a recession in the year ahead climbed to a two-year high, the survey showed. Trump’s tariffs were “on top of consumers’ minds,” according to their write-in responses.
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Love your headline.🤣
 
lawtig02 said:
If I were in control, my headline for this one would have been "Consumer Confidence Sinks to Lowest Level Since the Last Time America was Stupid Enough to Put Donald Trump in the White House."


Consumer confidence sank 7.9 points in April to a reading of 86, the Conference Board said in its latest survey released Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since May 2020 and a larger decline than economists had projected. The survey’s Expectations Index, which captures people’s outlook on the economy, plummeted 12.5 points this month to 54.4, the lowest level in 13 years.

Meanwhile, the share of Americans anticipating a recession in the year ahead climbed to a two-year high, the survey showed. Trump’s tariffs were “on top of consumers’ minds,” according to their write-in responses.
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C'mon lawtig

Can't you be patient and wait for the beautiful tariffs to take full effect and make the American economy great again ?
 
UNCatTech said:
www.newsweek.com

Donald Trump's approval rating collapses with rural Americans

Rural voters have long been a cornerstone of Trump's base, and any slippage in their support could have major implications for future Republican success.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
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That will only matter if rural residents either stay at home on election day or actually vote for something other than a Republican candidate for pretty much every office on the ballot. And unfortunately, however disappointed a growing number of these people may be in Dear Leader, they'd still vote for him again if they could, and will almost certainly continue to vote straight ticket Republican. Democrats are simply anathema to most rural people right now.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So basically the nostalgia voters now realizing "Oh crap...I forgot that he was really bad 5-8 years ago"
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maybe a blue wave in the House in 2026 similar to 2018 ?

maybe pick off a few GQP Senate seats... ?

Tillis ?
concerned Susan Collins ?
Rubio's seat ?
Vance's seat ?
phony Joni Ernst ?
 
heelinhell said:
maybe a blue wave in the House in 2026 similar to 2018 ?

maybe pick off a few GQP Senate seats... ?

Tillis ?
concerned Susan Collins ?
Rubio's seat ?
Vance's seat ?
phony Joni Ernst ?
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Especially if Sherrod Brown runs for Vance’s Ohio seat. He’s a known centrist, is popular in Ohio, and barely lost with Trump on the ballot.
 
heelinhell said:
maybe a blue wave in the House in 2026 similar to 2018 ?

maybe pick off a few GQP Senate seats... ?

Tillis ?
concerned Susan Collins ?
Rubio's seat ?
Vance's seat ?
phony Joni Ernst ?
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I don’t see Florida going blue for a long time. Tillis and Collins are vulnerable, however.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I don’t see Florida going blue for a long time. Tillis and Collins are vulnerable, however.
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I would put the odds of both Tillis and Collins being Senators in 2027 at below 1%, assuming no big macro surprises.

I would put the odds of neither being Senators at somewhere like 80%.

Tillis won in 2020 by less than 2 points. That was with Trump on the ballot in an election year. In any midterm, he'd be at best even odds given that performance, since the out-of-power party gets 2-4 points in swing and Dems also do best among high propensity voters. In this midterm, I'm not sure how it's even close. Yes, I get it -- NC, Charlie Brown, etc. But almost nothing is solid against a tidal wave, and certainly not Thom Tillis.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So basically the nostalgia voters now realizing "Oh crap...I forgot that he was really bad 5-8 years ago"
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I would think the opposite. These are the price of eggs voters, the credulous voters who believed Trump's promises, the voters who freaked out about gangs taking over the whole country and have now realized that Trump isn't going to do a damn thing for them.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
That will only matter if rural residents either stay at home on election day or actually vote for something other than a Republican candidate for pretty much every office on the ballot. And unfortunately, however disappointed a growing number of these people may be in Dear Leader, they'd still vote for him again if they could, and will almost certainly continue to vote straight ticket Republican. Democrats are simply anathema to most rural people right now.
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Just looking for some definitions/demography here: "According to the Census Bureau, 80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas. The remaining 20% lives in areas classified as rural. There isn't a specific category for suburban areas. More people live in the eight most populous urban areas than all of rural America combined."

2020 Census Urban Areas Facts

I grew up rural and until very recently could not be considered anything but urban since I went away to college. Since leaving home I've lived in Chapel Hill/Carrboro, Greensboro, Asheville/Weaverville, and New York City (with some time outside of the country, urban as well). Even today living in Fairview part-time I'm likely considered as tied to Greater Asheville statistically by some measures (about 7 miles from the city limits).

Even in Chatham County where I was raised which many would consider to be quite deeply rural the percentages today stand at 34% Urban and 66% Rural or 21,000 to 42,000. https://accessnc.nccommerce.com/DemoGraphicsReports/pdfs/countyProfile/NC/37037.pdf

That said, voting in Chatham has skewed Democratic in modern times (of course when I was growing it was always Dem., NC in those days being a one-party state in most ways). In the election of 2024 Chatham went 55-43 in favor of Harris (29,000 to 22,000) and 63/33 in favor of Stein for Governor (32,000 to 17,000) over Robinson. NC SBE Contest Results

Chatham might be an anomaly or perhaps it is on the leading edge of a better North Carolina.
 
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