Approval/Disapproval Polls

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UNCatTech said:
www.newsweek.com

Donald Trump's approval rating collapses with rural Americans

Rural voters have long been a cornerstone of Trump's base, and any slippage in their support could have major implications for future Republican success.
www.newsweek.com www.newsweek.com
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That will only matter if rural residents either stay at home on election day or actually vote for something other than a Republican candidate for pretty much every office on the ballot. And unfortunately, however disappointed a growing number of these people may be in Dear Leader, they'd still vote for him again if they could, and will almost certainly continue to vote straight ticket Republican. Democrats are simply anathema to most rural people right now.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So basically the nostalgia voters now realizing "Oh crap...I forgot that he was really bad 5-8 years ago"
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maybe a blue wave in the House in 2026 similar to 2018 ?

maybe pick off a few GQP Senate seats... ?

Tillis ?
concerned Susan Collins ?
Rubio's seat ?
Vance's seat ?
phony Joni Ernst ?
 
heelinhell said:
maybe a blue wave in the House in 2026 similar to 2018 ?

maybe pick off a few GQP Senate seats... ?

Tillis ?
concerned Susan Collins ?
Rubio's seat ?
Vance's seat ?
phony Joni Ernst ?
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Especially if Sherrod Brown runs for Vance’s Ohio seat. He’s a known centrist, is popular in Ohio, and barely lost with Trump on the ballot.
 
heelinhell said:
maybe a blue wave in the House in 2026 similar to 2018 ?

maybe pick off a few GQP Senate seats... ?

Tillis ?
concerned Susan Collins ?
Rubio's seat ?
Vance's seat ?
phony Joni Ernst ?
Click to expand...
I don’t see Florida going blue for a long time. Tillis and Collins are vulnerable, however.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I don’t see Florida going blue for a long time. Tillis and Collins are vulnerable, however.
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I would put the odds of both Tillis and Collins being Senators in 2027 at below 1%, assuming no big macro surprises.

I would put the odds of neither being Senators at somewhere like 80%.

Tillis won in 2020 by less than 2 points. That was with Trump on the ballot in an election year. In any midterm, he'd be at best even odds given that performance, since the out-of-power party gets 2-4 points in swing and Dems also do best among high propensity voters. In this midterm, I'm not sure how it's even close. Yes, I get it -- NC, Charlie Brown, etc. But almost nothing is solid against a tidal wave, and certainly not Thom Tillis.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So basically the nostalgia voters now realizing "Oh crap...I forgot that he was really bad 5-8 years ago"
Click to expand...
I would think the opposite. These are the price of eggs voters, the credulous voters who believed Trump's promises, the voters who freaked out about gangs taking over the whole country and have now realized that Trump isn't going to do a damn thing for them.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
That will only matter if rural residents either stay at home on election day or actually vote for something other than a Republican candidate for pretty much every office on the ballot. And unfortunately, however disappointed a growing number of these people may be in Dear Leader, they'd still vote for him again if they could, and will almost certainly continue to vote straight ticket Republican. Democrats are simply anathema to most rural people right now.
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Just looking for some definitions/demography here: "According to the Census Bureau, 80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas. The remaining 20% lives in areas classified as rural. There isn't a specific category for suburban areas. More people live in the eight most populous urban areas than all of rural America combined."

2020 Census Urban Areas Facts

I grew up rural and until very recently could not be considered anything but urban since I went away to college. Since leaving home I've lived in Chapel Hill/Carrboro, Greensboro, Asheville/Weaverville, and New York City (with some time outside of the country, urban as well). Even today living in Fairview part-time I'm likely considered as tied to Greater Asheville statistically by some measures (about 7 miles from the city limits).

Even in Chatham County where I was raised which many would consider to be quite deeply rural the percentages today stand at 34% Urban and 66% Rural or 21,000 to 42,000. https://accessnc.nccommerce.com/DemoGraphicsReports/pdfs/countyProfile/NC/37037.pdf

That said, voting in Chatham has skewed Democratic in modern times (of course when I was growing it was always Dem., NC in those days being a one-party state in most ways). In the election of 2024 Chatham went 55-43 in favor of Harris (29,000 to 22,000) and 63/33 in favor of Stein for Governor (32,000 to 17,000) over Robinson. NC SBE Contest Results

Chatham might be an anomaly or perhaps it is on the leading edge of a better North Carolina.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I don’t see Florida going blue for a long time. Tillis and Collins are vulnerable, however.
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With Florida it depends upon who the candidates will be, keeping in mind that it is an off year election and Trump is not on the ballot.
Same goes for Ohio
 
superrific said:
I would put the odds of both Tillis and Collins being Senators in 2027 at below 1%, assuming no big macro surprises.

I would put the odds of neither being Senators at somewhere like 80%.

Tillis won in 2020 by less than 2 points. That was with Trump on the ballot in an election year. In any midterm, he'd be at best even odds given that performance, since the out-of-power party gets 2-4 points in swing and Dems also do best among high propensity voters. In this midterm, I'm not sure how it's even close. Yes, I get it -- NC, Charlie Brown, etc. But almost nothing is solid against a tidal wave, and certainly not Thom Tillis.
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If Roy Cooper runs against Tillis, then Thom is toast :cool:

The Maine guv is thinking about running against Collins and it seems the Mainers may grown tired of concerned Susan Collins...

mainebeacon.com

Likely voters strongly favor Mills over Collins, polling finds - Maine Beacon

Likely 2026 voters like Gov. Janet Mills a lot more than they like Sen. Susan Collins. And that should cause a higher-than-normal level of concern for Sen. Collins about her political future. Collins, who has held her senate seat since 1997, has already said she plans to run for another term in...
mainebeacon.com mainebeacon.com
 
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