Approval/Disapproval Polls

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Mulberry Heel said:
The real question is can Democrats effectively tie Trump and Republicans to his increasingly unpopular (even hated) tariff and other destructive policies, like gutting Medicaid and going after vaccines? If they can they should do well next year, but if not it may be another long election season for them. Given that we're talking about Democrats and messaging I'm not holding my breath.
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I just don't get this frequent hand-wringing. If the economy is in the dumps, the midterms practically take care of themselves. And if Trump's approval rating is under 40%, same.

We've already seen on these threads shifts in the congressional ballot. Is that because of Dem messaging, or because Trump is shitting the bed?
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I believe it was the only state last year in which every single county voted for Trump. And it's also the state that has brought us the total shitshow of Ryan Walters, the crazed, fanatical, Bible-thumping ultra-MAGA grifter and moral hypocrite who is currently the OK Public Schools Superintendent. So yeah, MAGA shithole country for sure.
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James Inhofe was best known for his stunt with a snowball on the floor…….disproving climate change.

He was a perfect representative of Oklahoma.
 
CFordUNC said:
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Fascinating

South Carolina appears to be a state that might be waking up slowly... Not counting on it being purple any time soon but compared to the plains, Ohio and Indiana....

NC may be a trouble spot for the GOP
 
An AP late July poll reveals that people are beginning to be concerned about Trump's competence as a president. Yes he is corrupt and immoral, but we thought he would be good at governing the country and making our lives better but now...

Half the country believe Trump policies have hurt them
20% say his policies have made no difference in improving their lives
25% say his policies have helped them ( shout out to HY, calla, and ram )

50% of indys say his policies have had a negative impact

campaign tip for Dems : Don't run on Trump's corruption and threat to democracy; run on Trump's and the GQP's incompetence in governing the country and improving your lives. This message will resonate with voters. Sounding the alarm about a threat to our democracy and the corruption rot in the GQP will not.
 
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heelinhell said:
An AP late July poll reveals that people are beginning to be concerned about Trump's competence as a president. Yes he is corrupt and immoral, but we thought he would be good at governing the country and making our lives better but now...

Half the country believe Trump policies have hurt them
20% say his policies have made no difference in improving their lives
25% say his policies have helped them ( shout to HY, calla, and ram )

50% of indys say his policies have had a negative impact

campaign tip for Dems : Don't run on Trump's corruption and threat to democracy; run on Trump's and the GQP's incompetence in governing the country and improving your lives. This message will resonate with voters. Sounding the alarm about a threat to our democracy and the corruption rot in the GQP will not.
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It can be both, but I completely agree his incompetence should be the main message.
 
lawtig02 said:
It can be both, but I completely agree his incompetence should be the main message.
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I'm not a political strategist or psychologist, but it might be more effective to run against his failed policies. Incompetence could come across as good ideas poorly executed. While they may be in many cases poorly executed, they are without a doubt bad ideas and failed policies that are not improving the lives of most Americans.
 
BillOfRights said:
I'm not a political strategist or psychologist, but it might be more effective to run against his failed policies. Incompetence could come across as good ideas poorly executed. While they may be in many cases poorly executed, they are without a doubt bad ideas and failed policies that are not improving the lives of most Americans.
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Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Incompetence at not just failing to improve people’s lives, but doing unnecessary things that have made them much worse.
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, that’s what I’m saying. Incompetence at not just failing to improve people’s lives, but doing unnecessary things that have made them much worse.
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But the "doing unnecessary things that have made them much worse" isn't incompetence. It's intentional. The trump administration's incompetence (I believe the 2nd term is more competent than the first term) has been our saving grace. If they were more competent, things would be worse.
 
Zoo_View said:
ANY Democrat would be associated with Biden.
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To a point, yes, but as VP Harris was particularly hamstrung distancing herself from or criticizing any Biden policies.

Biden v Trump II rematch also made the election almost entirely about the past — it became about the desire to go back to pre-COVID times. A candidate not directly associated with the Biden Administration could have made a clean break and offered more of an argument about the future.

All that said, how on earth could there have been a rational process in the time available to elect a replacement candidate? That potential zoom could have also destroyed the chance of any Dem candidate — but we will never know.
 
We have been over this. Democratic voters savage their party in polls for not fighting back. I agree with the sentiment.
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‘They roll right over’: Many Democrats think their party is weak, AP-NORC poll finds​

WASHINGTON (AP) — Many Democrats see their political party as “weak” or “ineffective,” according to a poll that finds considerable pessimism within Democratic ranks.
Democrats’ frustration appears to reflect their concern that party leaders are not doing enough to stop Trump’s GOP, which controls Washington.

There is little sign that such voters would abandon their party in favor of Trump’s allies in upcoming elections, and the vast majority of Democrats described the GOP negatively. But disaffected Democrats might decide not to vote at all. That could undermine their party’s push to reclaim at least one chamber of Congress in 2026.
www.pbs.org

‘They roll right over’: Many Democrats think their party is weak, AP-NORC poll finds

Many Democrats see their political party as “weak” or “ineffective,” according to a poll that finds considerable pessimism within Democratic ranks. Republicans are more complimentary of their party, although a small but significant share describe the GOP as “greedy” or say it is generally "bad."
www.pbs.org www.pbs.org
 
From today’s New York Times:

“But in interviews with nearly 30 predominantly working-class voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 before defecting or struggling deeply with their choices last year, many had a stinging message for the Democratic Party.

Just because we have misgivings about Mr. Trump, they say, it doesn’t mean we like you.”

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The article listed 5 takeaways:

(1) Many voters lost trust in the Democratic Party over the way the Biden-then-Harris primary process was handled. As a former Dem voter who switched to Trump said: “It almost seemed wrong. It was kind of like, OK, the same people that were just running the country are now telling us that this is the person that we should vote for.”

(2) Democrats focused too much on cultural issues and not enough on everyday economic issues.

(3) Democrats focused too much attention and money on overseas problems like Ukraine rather than on problems here at home like jobs and inflation.

(4) Many voters who switched to Trump agreed with him on immigration and securing the border, but now some think he’s going too far.

(5) They’re fed up with the Democratic Party but not necessarily with Democratic candidates. As one man said, “Honestly, I don’t identify with any party.”

In my opinion, there’s no one person who has a sure-fire diagnosis that explains what happened in the past or a sure-fire prognosis for a successful recovery in the future, but there are some things I believe are indisputable.

The main thing is that the Party is a problem. When you have a 33% approval rating … a lower rating than both Trump and the Republican Party … you’re in trouble. Hopefully the party has learned 2 things: (1) voters don’t like the party trying to orchestrate who their candidates will be, and (2) if you don’t focus on the issues that matter most to the voters you lose the voters.

It’s a long way to November 2026, but we really need to get our act together and soon. We can blame Trump, blame MAGA, blame the media, blame whoever for the dire circumstances we’re in, but we’re being dishonest if we don’t admit that part of the blame is on us.
 
Centerpiece said:
From today’s New York Times:

“But in interviews with nearly 30 predominantly working-class voters who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 before defecting or struggling deeply with their choices last year, many had a stinging message for the Democratic Party.

Just because we have misgivings about Mr. Trump, they say, it doesn’t mean we like you.”

—————————

The article listed 5 takeaways:

(1) Many voters lost trust in the Democratic Party over the way the Biden-then-Harris primary process was handled. As a former Dem voter who switched to Trump said: “It almost seemed wrong. It was kind of like, OK, the same people that were just running the country are now telling us that this is the person that we should vote for.”

(2) Democrats focused too much on cultural issues and not enough on everyday economic issues.

(3) Democrats focused too much attention and money on overseas problems like Ukraine rather than on problems here at home like jobs and inflation.

(4) Many voters who switched to Trump agreed with him on immigration and securing the border, but now some think he’s going too far.

(5) They’re fed up with the Democratic Party but not necessarily with Democratic candidates. As one man said, “Honestly, I don’t identify with any party.”

In my opinion, there’s no one person who has a sure-fire diagnosis that explains what happened in the past or a sure-fire prognosis for a successful recovery in the future, but there are some things I believe are indisputable.

The main thing is that the Party is a problem. When you have a 33% approval rating … a lower rating than both Trump and the Republican Party … you’re in trouble. Hopefully the party has learned 2 things: (1) voters don’t like the party trying to orchestrate who their candidates will be, and (2) if you don’t focus on the issues that matter most to the voters you lose the voters.

It’s a long way to November 2026, but we really need to get our act together and soon. We can blame Trump, blame MAGA, blame the media, blame whoever for the dire circumstances we’re in, but we’re being dishonest if we don’t admit that part of the blame is on us.
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This is extremely oversimplified, but 2026 will be primarily about how the economy is doing, with a few other things floating in the background. 2028 will be about the specific people running on each party's ticket.

Dems should do all they can to connect with middle America over the next few years, especially if we get control of anything in 2026. But the almost singular focus should be on figuring out who is the right candidate to win in 2028. Especially since the conservative Supreme Court has now made the president a demigod.
 
lawtig02 said:
This is extremely oversimplified, but 2026 will be primarily about how the economy is doing, with a few other things floating in the background. 2028 will be about the specific people running on each party's ticket.

Dems should do all they can to connect with middle America over the next few years, especially if we get control of anything in 2026. But the almost singular focus should be on figuring out who is the right candidate to win in 2028. Especially since the conservative Supreme Court has now made the president a demigod.
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I agree 100%

The fact that the Democratic party is at 34% and the GQP is at 38% is somewhat surprising to me. The GQP enjoys 90% approval among fellow GQPers. I'm guessing at least half of the Dems are disappointed with their party for being play by the rules we go high when they go low wussies .

I believe the status of the economy will determine the outcome of the 2026 elections. There is no reason for Dem candidates to campaign on cultural issues or threats to democracy.

The determining campaign question will be, are you better off now than you were 2 years ago ? If yes, then it's a GQP win; If no then Dems should take the House and may take the Senate.
 
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