Approval/Disapproval Polls

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Ramrouser said:
Observing Trump since his Inauguration, it's pretty obvious that he's going to govern without giving a $%^ about his approval ratings. Even for Trump, he's letting it rip, with no guardrails. He's going to accomplish all that he can during this two year window before the Dems take the House. Clearly that's why DOGE is acting with such breakneck speed. Trump likely knows there's virtually no way the Rs keep the House even if he were to govern in a vanilla Romney-like manner so why not go for it?
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As much as I don’t like and disagree with his methods, I think you’re exactly right that that’s what he’s doing and why. That said, I think it ultimately reveals him to be an extraordinarily weak executive- he’s got a Republican House, a Republican Senate, and a Republican SCOTUS and still has to try to govern like a monarch instead of like a president. We’ll see how ultimately effective it is or is not, but one thing is certain: Republicans are making way for the next Democratic president to do the same, for better or for worse.
 
Silence Dogood said:
You don't win all the toss ups and not be popular
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You understand election correlation, right?

538 and Nate Silver talk about this shit every election. It is not as though each toss up state is a 50/50 proposition that is totally separate of every other state. If Trump wins PA, it is highly likely he will win MI and Wisc. It is also highly likely that he will win NC, GA and Ariz. NV was the one flip, but it was highly correlated to the other swing states. Same way Biden won almost all the swing states (save NC) in 2020. Would you say that Biden was a highly popular president?

In our two-party system, winning the swing states by narrow margins does not mean that you are popular. It means that you were more popular than the alternative. Now that Trump is the incumbent, he does not get the benefit of being compared to the other guy/gal. He has to stand on his own two feet.

And as of February 27, 2025, he is historically unpopular for a president six weeks into his term. Given the way his popularity tanked in December 2017, and given the historical trends for modern presidencies, he will likely be sub 38% by the end of this year and may well dip into the 20s by next year.
 
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Ramrouser said:
Observing Trump since his Inauguration, it's pretty obvious that he's going to govern without giving a $%^ about his approval ratings. Even for Trump, he's letting it rip, with no guardrails. He's going to accomplish all that he can during this two year window before the Dems take the House. Clearly that's why DOGE is acting with such breakneck speed. Trump likely knows there's virtually no way the Rs keep the House even if he were to govern in a vanilla Romney-like manner so why not go for it?
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Wrong, the truth is he never had a plan, still doesn't have a plan, and he's such a worthless businessman that he thinks this stupid approach has a chance.
 


But ABC announced today that they are shuttering 538, so not clear if this particular data will continue to be available.
 
Moving forward, expect polls that show downward approval rating trends for the president to be similarly shuttered.

That was wordy as fuck, but for the life of me, I can't figure out a clearer way to write that sentence.
 
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