Approval/Disapproval Polls

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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nycfan said:


But ABC announced today that they are shuttering 538, so not clear if this particular data will continue to be available.
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The weird thing is they have two different tracking polls. One for "approval" and one for "favorability". He does two points worse in the favorability than the approval. Now he is finally underwater in both.

Absent a Pearl Harbor type attack, I doubt he is ever positive again in either type of poll.
 
superrific said:
Doubt it. He's moved on to poker.
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His gambling book is actually about applying gambling theory to all sorts of non-gambling issues. Only half of the book was really about poker.

I'd be very excited to have a 538 that incorporates gambling analysis more heavily into the site. Gambling theory is extremely useful in all sorts of real-world scenarios. Ed Thorp, who wrote Beat the Dealer in the 1960s and popularized card counting, became a very successful hedge fund investor in Newport Beach (who incidentally shared a floor with me for several years and is a very interesting person).

So, I'd think Nate would be interested in reviving 538 if he could get it for basically free.
 
Calheel said:
His gambling book is actually about applying gambling theory to all sorts of non-gambling issues. Only half of the book was really about poker.

I'd be very excited to have a 538 that incorporates gambling analysis more heavily into the site. Gambling theory is extremely useful in all sorts of real-world scenarios. Ed Thorp, who wrote Beat the Dealer in the 1960s and popularized card counting, became a very successful hedge fund investor in Newport Beach (who incidentally shared a floor with me for several years and is a very interesting person).

So, I'd think Nate would be interested in reviving 538 if he could get it for basically free.
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1. You could be very successful in hedge funds with basic math or gambling principles in the 1960s. Not so much anymore.
2. I didn't read the book. My sense, just from casual reading of mostly things posted here, is that he spends most of his time on poker. He wrote the book, of course, but that doesn't mean that he's going back to politics.

I don't think Nate would be interested in 538 any more. It isn't going to be a moneymaker. When it was new and exciting, it made money, but now it's stale. Its brand got pummeled by all the nerdiness. It's a two-month every two-years sort of thing, at least in terms of publicity and readership. Not a business I'd like to be in.
 
Calheel said:
His gambling book is actually about applying gambling theory to all sorts of non-gambling issues. Only half of the book was really about poker.

I'd be very excited to have a 538 that incorporates gambling analysis more heavily into the site. Gambling theory is extremely useful in all sorts of real-world scenarios. Ed Thorp, who wrote Beat the Dealer in the 1960s and popularized card counting, became a very successful hedge fund investor in Newport Beach (who incidentally shared a floor with me for several years and is a very interesting person).

So, I'd think Nate would be interested in reviving 538 if he could get it for basically free.
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Nate Silver is getting out of political polling for very deliberate reasons. It's not his passion. He is not going to revive the website.

www.vox.com

What happened to Nate Silver

Once beloved by progressives, Silver now feuds with them regularly. He tells us why.
www.vox.com www.vox.com
 
Majority of Americans can’t name Trump’s policies except for “immigrants bad” and “transgender is worse.”

Please don’t say “cut waste and fraud” or “reduce the size of government” because most people can’t identify waste/fraud in the government and most don’t want “their government benefits” cut.
 
Zoo_View said:
Majority of Americans can’t name Trump’s policies except for “immigrants bad” and “transgender is worse.”

Please don’t say “cut waste and fraud” or “reduce the size of government” because most people can’t identify waste/fraud in the government and most don’t want “their government benefits” cut.
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So continue to defend the status quo, got it.
 
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