Approval/Disapproval Polls

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Icky Mettle said:
I don’t see Florida going blue for a long time. Tillis and Collins are vulnerable, however.
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I would put the odds of both Tillis and Collins being Senators in 2027 at below 1%, assuming no big macro surprises.

I would put the odds of neither being Senators at somewhere like 80%.

Tillis won in 2020 by less than 2 points. That was with Trump on the ballot in an election year. In any midterm, he'd be at best even odds given that performance, since the out-of-power party gets 2-4 points in swing and Dems also do best among high propensity voters. In this midterm, I'm not sure how it's even close. Yes, I get it -- NC, Charlie Brown, etc. But almost nothing is solid against a tidal wave, and certainly not Thom Tillis.
 
aGDevil2k said:
So basically the nostalgia voters now realizing "Oh crap...I forgot that he was really bad 5-8 years ago"
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I would think the opposite. These are the price of eggs voters, the credulous voters who believed Trump's promises, the voters who freaked out about gangs taking over the whole country and have now realized that Trump isn't going to do a damn thing for them.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
That will only matter if rural residents either stay at home on election day or actually vote for something other than a Republican candidate for pretty much every office on the ballot. And unfortunately, however disappointed a growing number of these people may be in Dear Leader, they'd still vote for him again if they could, and will almost certainly continue to vote straight ticket Republican. Democrats are simply anathema to most rural people right now.
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Just looking for some definitions/demography here: "According to the Census Bureau, 80% of the U.S. population lives in urban areas. The remaining 20% lives in areas classified as rural. There isn't a specific category for suburban areas. More people live in the eight most populous urban areas than all of rural America combined."

2020 Census Urban Areas Facts

I grew up rural and until very recently could not be considered anything but urban since I went away to college. Since leaving home I've lived in Chapel Hill/Carrboro, Greensboro, Asheville/Weaverville, and New York City (with some time outside of the country, urban as well). Even today living in Fairview part-time I'm likely considered as tied to Greater Asheville statistically by some measures (about 7 miles from the city limits).

Even in Chatham County where I was raised which many would consider to be quite deeply rural the percentages today stand at 34% Urban and 66% Rural or 21,000 to 42,000. https://accessnc.nccommerce.com/DemoGraphicsReports/pdfs/countyProfile/NC/37037.pdf

That said, voting in Chatham has skewed Democratic in modern times (of course when I was growing it was always Dem., NC in those days being a one-party state in most ways). In the election of 2024 Chatham went 55-43 in favor of Harris (29,000 to 22,000) and 63/33 in favor of Stein for Governor (32,000 to 17,000) over Robinson. NC SBE Contest Results

Chatham might be an anomaly or perhaps it is on the leading edge of a better North Carolina.
 
superrific said:
I would put the odds of both Tillis and Collins being Senators in 2027 at below 1%, assuming no big macro surprises.

I would put the odds of neither being Senators at somewhere like 80%.

Tillis won in 2020 by less than 2 points. That was with Trump on the ballot in an election year. In any midterm, he'd be at best even odds given that performance, since the out-of-power party gets 2-4 points in swing and Dems also do best among high propensity voters. In this midterm, I'm not sure how it's even close. Yes, I get it -- NC, Charlie Brown, etc. But almost nothing is solid against a tidal wave, and certainly not Thom Tillis.
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If Roy Cooper runs against Tillis, then Thom is toast :cool:

The Maine guv is thinking about running against Collins and it seems the Mainers may grown tired of concerned Susan Collins...

mainebeacon.com

Likely voters strongly favor Mills over Collins, polling finds - Maine Beacon

Likely 2026 voters like Gov. Janet Mills a lot more than they like Sen. Susan Collins. And that should cause a higher-than-normal level of concern for Sen. Collins about her political future. Collins, who has held her senate seat since 1997, has already said she plans to run for another term in...
mainebeacon.com mainebeacon.com
 
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superrific said:
I would think the opposite. These are the price of eggs voters, the credulous voters who believed Trump's promises, the voters who freaked out about gangs taking over the whole country and have now realized that Trump isn't going to do a damn thing for them.
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But the point is they forgot he didnt do shit about it from his first time. They were simply thinking "oh he was great" cause he was riding the Obama coattails.
 
aGDevil2k said:
But the point is they forgot he didnt do shit about it from his first time. They were simply thinking "oh he was great" cause he was riding the Obama coattails.
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I think 2024 was more of a referendum on Dems than an embrace of Trump. And now millions of voters are going to learn which party can actually govern.
 
heelinhell said:
If Roy Cooper runs against Tillis, then Thom is toast :cool:
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Thom is toast anyway. Again, he barely beat Cal Cunningham. I don't know much about Cal except what I read on this board, but almost nothing is written here that is flattering to him. Roy Cooper might be the only person who could beat Tillis in 2028, but I'd expect Tillis to be a significant underdog to any halfway serious Dem candidate.

Candidates rarely matter in wave elections. I mean, if you run an assclown like Mark Robinson, Herschel Walker or Madison Cawthorn, then it can matter, but outside of those types of extreme cases, wave elections are about the party. I'm quite positive that Montanans personally like Tester better than pretty much any GOP figure in Montana but Tester lost because Montanans were voting on party lines.
 
superrific said:
Thom is toast anyway. Again, he barely beat Cal Cunningham. I don't know much about Cal except what I read on this board, but almost nothing is written here that is flattering to him. Roy Cooper might be the only person who could beat Tillis in 2028, but I'd expect Tillis to be a significant underdog to any halfway serious Dem candidate.

Candidates rarely matter in wave elections. I mean, if you run an assclown like Mark Robinson, Herschel Walker or Madison Cawthorn, then it can matter, but outside of those types of extreme cases, wave elections are about the party. I'm quite positive that Montanans personally like Tester better than pretty much any GOP figure in Montana but Tester lost because Montanans were voting on party lines.
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I ran for Congress in 2006

You are tempting me to run for Senate in 2026 :D
 
superrific said:
How did you do?
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I ran in the Democratic primary with the goal of serving as a proxy vote for the impeachment of GWB in order to pressure the incumbent to support John Conyers resolution to impeach GWB.

My platform was :

1 ) Impeach GWB
2 ) single payer national health system
3 ) support the Murtha resolution to withdraw from Iraq

It was an off year election without any state wide election so I calculated that the turnout would be low but that my platform could garner enough votes to scare the current rep to get off the back bench and take a stand.

I eschewed campaign donations and spent $1500 to file and another $500 on campaign signs.

I was disappointed that many failed to recognize my candidacy as a proxy vote for my platform . Various local news folks and political groups offered support for my platform but told me I could not win and that the current rep was not much but better than nothing.

It was an educational experience dealing with the lazy clueless local press. I did enjoy kicking the rep's ass in a few voter "town halls" :cool:

I was hoping to get 20% of the primary vote... I got 10% in my home county and 6% overall in the district... so less than $1 per vote😊
 
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heelinhell said:
I ran in the Democratic primary with the goal of serving as a proxy vote for the impeachment of GWB in order to pressure the incumbent to support John Conyers resolution to impeach GWB.

My platform was :

1 ) Impeach GWB
2 ) single payer national health system
3 ) support the Murtha resolution to withdraw from Iraq

It was an off year election without any state wide election so I calculated that the turnout would be low but that my platform could garner enough votes to scare the current rep to get off the bench and take a stand.

I eschewed campaign donations and spent $1500 to file and another $500 on campaign signs.

I was disappointed that many failed to recognize my candidacy as a proxy vote for my platform . Various local news folks and political groups offered support for my platform but told me I could not win and that the current rep was not much but better than nothing.

It was an educational experience dealing with the lazy clueless local press. I did enjoy kicking the rep's ass in a few voter "town halls" :cool:

I was hoping to get 20% of the primary vote... I got 10% in my home county and 6% overall in the district... so less than $1 per vote😊
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Pretty cool.

The idea of voluntarily being around that many people and trying to put a good face on it makes me shudder.
 
superrific said:
Thom is toast anyway. Again, he barely beat Cal Cunningham. I don't know much about Cal except what I read on this board, but almost nothing is written here that is flattering to him. Roy Cooper might be the only person who could beat Tillis in 2028, but I'd expect Tillis to be a significant underdog to any halfway serious Dem candidate.

Candidates rarely matter in wave elections. I mean, if you run an assclown like Mark Robinson, Herschel Walker or Madison Cawthorn, then it can matter, but outside of those types of extreme cases, wave elections are about the party. I'm quite positive that Montanans personally like Tester better than pretty much any GOP figure in Montana but Tester lost because Montanans were voting on party lines.
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North Carolina is an upstream state for Dems seeking national office. Obviously not impossible and ‘26 brings a lot of headwinds for Tillis
despite his tack to the GOP middle the last few years.

But I do not share your certainty about a Dem win here. Maybe just kicked dog syndrome from over 40 years of watching Democrats need a 2-3 point polling lead to be competitive in national races.
 
nycfan said:
North Carolina is an upstream state for Dems seeking national office. Obviously not impossible and ‘26 brings a lot of headwinds for Tillis
despite his tack to the GOP middle the last few years.

But I do not share your certainty about a Dem win here. Maybe just kicked dog syndrome from over 40 years of watching Democrats need a 2-3 point polling lead to be competitive in national races.
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I hear you. And my position depends on Trump's approval rating being low. And I understand not wanting get hopes up.

But the whole point of wave elections is that they allow for victories in upstream states. Remember: in 06, Dems flipped even MO and MT. In 08, Dems flipped NC and IA. In 2014, Pubs flipped CO. Now, most of these gains prove short-lived. NC flipped back in 14; CO flipped back in 20; MO would have flipped in 12 but for their idiotic candidate and it did flip in 18. Tester in MT had surprising longevity but his days were always numbered.

The Pubs haven't won a statewide race with a margin of more than 3 points in quite a while. Even in 2022, what should have been an extremely favorable environment for Pubs, Budd only won by 3 points and Beasley was nobody's idea of a good candidate. I cannot see a scenario in which the national environment isn't at least +6 more favorable to Dems than 2024. And that's arguably before turnout factors.

I suppose when I think about it that way, I might be underrating Tillis' chances. Maybe he's 80% to lose rather than 90%. Either way, I would need very good odds to wager on Tillis in 26.
 
superrific said:
I hear you. And my position depends on Trump's approval rating being low. And I understand not wanting get hopes up.

But the whole point of wave elections is that they allow for victories in upstream states. Remember: in 06, Dems flipped even MO and MT. In 08, Dems flipped NC and IA. In 2014, Pubs flipped CO. Now, most of these gains prove short-lived. NC flipped back in 14; CO flipped back in 20; MO would have flipped in 12 but for their idiotic candidate and it did flip in 18. Tester in MT had surprising longevity but his days were always numbered.

The Pubs haven't won a statewide race with a margin of more than 3 points in quite a while. Even in 2022, what should have been an extremely favorable environment for Pubs, Budd only won by 3 points and Beasley was nobody's idea of a good candidate. I cannot see a scenario in which the national environment isn't at least +6 more favorable to Dems than 2024. And that's arguably before turnout factors.

I suppose when I think about it that way, I might be underrating Tillis' chances. Maybe he's 80% to lose rather than 90%. Either way, I would need very good odds to wager on Tillis in 26.
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Trump has stabilized his disapproval ratings for now. I am sure he will do stupid again soon, but for now, he is no longer declining on trade or the economy.
 
Calheel said:
Trump has stabilized his disapproval ratings for now. I am sure he will do stupid again soon, but for now, he is no longer declining on trade or the economy.
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1. The economy hasn't cratered yet. Let's revisit in two months, even if Trump doesn't do any more stupid.
2. His current approval rating, along with the other factors like declining consumer confidence, "right direction/ wrong direction" polling, is plenty bad enough for Tillis to be a longshot. I think Tillis needs Trump to recover.
 
Speaking of senate races in 2026 I'm feeling better about Ossoff's chances of winning re-election in Georgia - he's raised a shit-ton of money and doesn't look like any serious Republican is looking to run for that seat
 
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