Approval/Disapproval Polls

[milom98]

 

[mpaer]

" The Democrats don't care about you-but the Republicans HATE you
Love it

 

[Zoo_View]

“I luv you like chicken.”

 

[nycfan]

 

[lawtig02]

Not nearly enough.

 

[superrific]

I hate this trope about how Democrats don't give a fuck about rural people. The problem is figuring out what they actually want, and whether it can be reasonably delivered

1. We know about Obamacare, right? Dems tried give everyone health care. Red states refused to expand Medicaid. The voters didn't like that -- in fact, in many states, they passed ballot referenda to require the state to accept the Medicaid expansion. But did they vote out the people who did that to them? They did not. Not a single one, if memory serves me correctly.

2. Both Obama and Biden funded green energy manufacturing programs all over the country, including in rural areas. One would have thought the people screaming that they have no jobs and Dems don't care about them might have been appreciative. Instead, they tried to kill the projects. The Gotion battery plant is still in limbo because a bunch of morons think China is going to be using the factory to spy on them.

And Gotion has been fighting back, fighting in court. And Gretchen Whitmer and the Dems have been supportive. But it's probably not going to get built, at this point. I would be surprised if Gotion remains committed to the project after this year. So the people in Upper Big Bend Michigan, wherever that is, will not be manufacturing batteries. They will still be working highway exit fast food and bitching and complaining.

3. Sometimes rural people hear these complaints and interpret them as yet more bias. "You look down on us!" waah. What am I supposed to do with that? I don't look down on them, but I do think they are being hopelessly stupid and I really don't like getting blamed for it.

I don't have much in common with the average rural person, I'd imagine. Isn't that OK? It doesn't mean that I can't help. But I can't help if all of my efforts are thrown back in my face.

I remember back in college when there was a lot of flooding in various parts of the Midwest. I went out more than once to help fill sandbags for makeshift levees. Once, there was some fucking asshole who drove up in a BMW, got out, grabbed a sandbag, wife snapped a photo of the guy holding it, and then they drove away. Complete asshole move. The people there -- mostly blue-collar types -- automatically assumed the person was from the local university and started cursing it out. I was like, "hey, I'm from the local university too and I've been here three times this week!" It made no difference, and I started to feel unwelcome. I could take a couple of jokes about college educated assholes, but the 15th one is really unpleasant. I didn't go back. Probably they thought I didn't care about them. Because one liberal was a dickhead and the meatheads with chips on their shoulders decided to generalize that to everyone.

 

[nycfan]

KFF Health Tracking Poll: The Public's Views of Funding Reductions to Medicaid | KFF

As Congress works to pass the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which includes significant changes to Medicaid and the ACA, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll examines the views of groups that could be most directly impacted by the impending legislation. The poll finds most of the public is worried...

www.kff.org

 

[nycfan]

KFF Health Tracking Poll: The Public's Views of Funding Reductions to Medicaid | KFF

As Congress works to pass the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," which includes significant changes to Medicaid and the ACA, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll examines the views of groups that could be most directly impacted by the impending legislation. The poll finds most of the public is worried...

www.kff.org

 

[donbosco]

Who's voting and who's not in North Carolina

A look at turnout in one of the country's top swing states.

open.substack.com

"Who's voting and who's not in North Carolina​

A look at turnout in one of the country's top swing states.​

Thomas Mills
Jun 06, 2025

Compared to other states, North Carolina Democrats had a pretty good election cycle in 2024. While Kamala Harris lost the state by about three percent, the party won five of ten Council of State seats, including the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. They broke the veto-proof majority in the state house despite the heavily gerrymandered districts, and they held a Supreme Court seat despite Republican attempts to steal it.

However, Democrats face structural problems that prevent them from becoming a stronger party. Turnout statistics show that they have difficulty turning out their base voters and their share of registered voters is shrinking. They will need to fix these issues if they want to make the state a bluer shade of purple.

Overall, turnout was down very slightly from the 2020 presidential turnout of 75%. Just under 74% of registered voters showed up last November. For the first time in a presidential cycle in over a 125 years, more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats. For the first time in North Carolina history, unaffiliated voters made up a larger portion than either major party.

Turnout among Democrats was 73% while almost 80% of Republicans voted. Despite having the largest block of voters, unaffiliated turnout was only 67%.

People are increasingly registering unaffiliated but that does not necessarily mean they are independent. Many, if not most, prefer one party or the other, or at least they vote that way. Clearly, a majority of them supported Josh Stein for governor and preferred Democrats for the other top council of state seats. They obviously broke for Trump over Harris.

A look at demographics reveals the structural problems holding Democrats back. Turnout among African American voters, Democrats’ most consistent supporters, dropped two percent from 2020, despite having a Black woman at the top of the ticket. They made up less than 18% of the electorate, down to pre-Obama levels.

Many of those African American voters lived in rural counties in eastern North Carolina and along the South Carolina border, where turnout was significantly lower than the state as a whole. I suspect they are working class voters who were older and more religious. While they didn’t vote for Republicans, they rejected much of what they perceived as Democrats’ cultural agenda and sat out the election.

Turnout among young voters also fell. Just below 60% of voters under 40 years old came to polls. That’s about three percent lower than 2020, but considerably higher than their 2016 or 2012 turnout. Younger voters are the most unreliable part of the Democratic coalition. While they tend to support for Democrats, their turnout is consistently underwhelming.

In contrast, Republican voters maintained their high presidential year turnout. Turnout among White voters was over 78%, close to their 2020 turnout of 79%. Voters over 65 years old turned out at a rate of more than 83%. Rural counties in the piedmont and west, areas that are predominantly white and older, had the highest turnout in the state with most seeing turnout between 75% and 80%. Most supported Republicans by double digits.

Democrats are solidifying their base in areas of the state that are growing. They’re winning by huge margins in urban areas and they are slowly but surely shrinking Republican advantages in exurban counties like Johnston and Union. Newcomers and young people in these areas are keeping them competitive across the state.

Republicans, in contrast, are building advantages in areas that are shrinking, but they are cutting into the Democratic base by attracting more culturally conservative voters of all stripes. They are also maintaining or increasing their advantage in coastal counties like Brunswick and Pender that are growing, in large part, because of an influx of retirees. The reality, though, is that Republicans are reliant on increasing margins in areas that are losing population. That’s probably not sustainable over the long haul.

Both parties need to broaden their appeal if they want to become more dominant in the state. Democrats need to cut into GOP margins in high turnout rural counties. Republicans need to attract newcomers in more urban/suburban areas. In a state with a rapidly growing unaffiliated electorate, both sides need to appeal less to their base and more to the middle. Swing voters are for real in North Carolina."

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Who's voting and who's not in North Carolina

A look at turnout in one of the country's top swing states.

open.substack.com

"Who's voting and who's not in North Carolina​

A look at turnout in one of the country's top swing states.​

Thomas Mills
Jun 06, 2025

Compared to other states, North Carolina Democrats had a pretty good election cycle in 2024. While Kamala Harris lost the state by about three percent, the party won five of ten Council of State seats, including the governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. They broke the veto-proof majority in the state house despite the heavily gerrymandered districts, and they held a Supreme Court seat despite Republican attempts to steal it.

However, Democrats face structural problems that prevent them from becoming a stronger party. Turnout statistics show that they have difficulty turning out their base voters and their share of registered voters is shrinking. They will need to fix these issues if they want to make the state a bluer shade of purple.

Overall, turnout was down very slightly from the 2020 presidential turnout of 75%. Just under 74% of registered voters showed up last November. For the first time in a presidential cycle in over a 125 years, more registered Republicans voted than registered Democrats. For the first time in North Carolina history, unaffiliated voters made up a larger portion than either major party.

Turnout among Democrats was 73% while almost 80% of Republicans voted. Despite having the largest block of voters, unaffiliated turnout was only 67%.

People are increasingly registering unaffiliated but that does not necessarily mean they are independent. Many, if not most, prefer one party or the other, or at least they vote that way. Clearly, a majority of them supported Josh Stein for governor and preferred Democrats for the other top council of state seats. They obviously broke for Trump over Harris.

A look at demographics reveals the structural problems holding Democrats back. Turnout among African American voters, Democrats’ most consistent supporters, dropped two percent from 2020, despite having a Black woman at the top of the ticket. They made up less than 18% of the electorate, down to pre-Obama levels.

Many of those African American voters lived in rural counties in eastern North Carolina and along the South Carolina border, where turnout was significantly lower than the state as a whole. I suspect they are working class voters who were older and more religious. While they didn’t vote for Republicans, they rejected much of what they perceived as Democrats’ cultural agenda and sat out the election.

Turnout among young voters also fell. Just below 60% of voters under 40 years old came to polls. That’s about three percent lower than 2020, but considerably higher than their 2016 or 2012 turnout. Younger voters are the most unreliable part of the Democratic coalition. While they tend to support for Democrats, their turnout is consistently underwhelming.

In contrast, Republican voters maintained their high presidential year turnout. Turnout among White voters was over 78%, close to their 2020 turnout of 79%. Voters over 65 years old turned out at a rate of more than 83%. Rural counties in the piedmont and west, areas that are predominantly white and older, had the highest turnout in the state with most seeing turnout between 75% and 80%. Most supported Republicans by double digits.

Democrats are solidifying their base in areas of the state that are growing. They’re winning by huge margins in urban areas and they are slowly but surely shrinking Republican advantages in exurban counties like Johnston and Union. Newcomers and young people in these areas are keeping them competitive across the state.

Republicans, in contrast, are building advantages in areas that are shrinking, but they are cutting into the Democratic base by attracting more culturally conservative voters of all stripes. They are also maintaining or increasing their advantage in coastal counties like Brunswick and Pender that are growing, in large part, because of an influx of retirees. The reality, though, is that Republicans are reliant on increasing margins in areas that are losing population. That’s probably not sustainable over the long haul.

Both parties need to broaden their appeal if they want to become more dominant in the state. Democrats need to cut into GOP margins in high turnout rural counties. Republicans need to attract newcomers in more urban/suburban areas. In a state with a rapidly growing unaffiliated electorate, both sides need to appeal less to their base and more to the middle. Swing voters are for real in North Carolina."

A good analysis. IMO, one underrated aspect of NC voting patterns in the Age of Trump has been that many heavily white rural counties in central and western NC have moved from being 55 to 65 percent Republican to 75 percent or better Republican since 2016. The county I grew up in always voted Republican in presidential elections, usually with around 60 percent of the vote, but Democrats did occasionally break through and elect a sheriff or county commissioner and they were competitive in some other races, such as voting Democratic for Congress a handful of times or having the Democratic presidential candidate get around 45 percent of the vote, like Bill Clinton in the 90s. Since Trump's first win in 2016, though, it now regularly votes Republican by 80 percent and Democrats have virtually ceased to exist as a functioning political party, even at the local level. It's just total domination. If I still lived there I'm not even sure I'd feel comfortable or safe if people knew I voted Democratic - it really is that bad.

 

[ColdBlueSteel]

… Because one liberal was a dickhead and the meatheads with chips on their shoulders decided to generalize that to everyone.

Good thing the esteemed members of this board don’t do anything like this every other post with regards to non-democrats.

 

[Zoo_View]

A good analysis. IMO, one underrated aspect of NC voting patterns in the Age of Trump has been that many heavily white rural counties in central and western NC have moved from being 55 to 65 percent Republican to 75 percent or better Republican since 2016. The county I grew up in always voted Republican in presidential elections, usually with around 60 percent of the vote, but Democrats did occasionally break through and elect a sheriff or county commissioner and they were competitive in some other races, such as voting Democratic for Congress a handful of times or having the Democratic presidential candidate get around 45 percent of the vote, like Bill Clinton in the 90s. Since Trump's first win in 2016, though, it now regularly votes Republican by 80 percent and Democrats have virtually ceased to exist as a functioning political party, even at the local level. It's just total domination. If I still lived there I'm not even sure I'd feel comfortable or safe if people knew I voted Democratic - it really is that bad.

That’s rural and exurban North Carolina……suburban also if you count the Trumplicans who live in counties like Brunswick and Union…..the retiree Trumplicans who moved here from PA, OH, MI, Upstate NY, etc…….you know…..the places so far north of the Mason-Dixon Line that you wrenched your neck doing a double-take because your eyes saw a Confederate battle flag and your brain said, “No effing way….” Then, your sub-conscious said, “Look again.”

Remember, they vote for Trump because of the economy and they figure he’s such a brilliant and successful businessman.

 

[heelinhell]

Checking Trump's approval on some issues. Here is the RCP polling average :

the economy 43%
foreign policy 43%
immigration 51%
inflation 40%
mid east conflict 41 %
right direction for the country 44%

 

[donbosco]

Checking Trump's approval on some issues. Here is the RCP polling average :

the economy 43%
foreign policy 43%
immigration 51%
inflation 40%
mid east conflict 41 %
right direction for the country 44%

I see numbers like this and I think back to my ancestors who themselves decided that what they called home was divergent enough from their own sentiments, hopes, and attitudes that they should leave. I am descended from Palantine and English and Scots-Irish folk for whom, as best that I can tell, the precise reasons for leaving were greatly varied. The Palantines were refugees and came indentured while the stories of the Scot-Irish and the English are something that I am still trying to get a specific grasp of.

Just the same, for some reason they decided to move on from the places they called home into places not particularly well-known presumably, at least for some, that sort of scenario was better than what they had come to actually know.

 

[heelinhell]

I see numbers like this and I think back to my ancestors who themselves decided that what they called home was divergent enough from their own sentiments, hopes, and attitudes that they should leave. I am descended from Palantine and English and Scots-Irish folk for whom, as best that I can tell, the precise reasons for leaving were greatly varied. The Palantines were refugees and came indentured while the stories of the Scot-Irish and the English are something that I am still trying to get a specific grasp of.

Just the same, for some reason they decided to move on from the places they called home into places not particularly well-known presumably, at least for some, that sort of scenario was better than what they had come to actually know.

My ancestors were French Huguenots who came over with Oglethorpe and settled in Georgia