Biorhythms for Carolina @Virginia: Noon Start

[PTOHeel]

I think this is an interesting perspective and I'd like to address it from someone who is solidly in the "HD shouldn't be our coach going forward" camp.

I am certainly rooting for the team and the program. I want this team to win every game they play. I want the program to succeed.

Now as it comes to HD, specifically, it's a lot murkier. I recognize that his personal success as a HC at Carolina is directly tied to the team's success. And I want the team to be successful, so I ultimately want HD to be success as long as he's at Carolina. But I am not terribly emotionally tied to HD's personal success as a coach. I loved him as a player at Carolina and hoped he'd be successful in whatever he did after Carolina, but I'm simply not that connected to him as Coach Hubert Davis. And I also have come to the conclusion over 5 seasons that HD as HC does not give the program the best shot at future success. So for me, there's a disconnect there as I want to Hubert to be personally successful in a distanced way and I certainly want him to be successful as the HC of Carolina Basketball, but I also have come to the conclusion that his continued presence as HC at Carolina is almost certainly detrimental to the future success of the program, so in that sense I am ready for him to move on after the conclusion of this season to whatever next role life has in store for him.

I appreciate that and understand what you’re saying. It kind of describes how I feel about BB and football. I don’t care about him personally. I only care about his ability to make the football team successful. It’s why my perspective in football and basketball differs.

 

[finesse]

If you look at 5 years as a data set of ~175 games (~35 games per season) rather than only 5 discrete data points each a season long, there is much more data to use for evaluation and you can start to get a reasonable approximation of how each coach handles their duties.

If you're going to evaluate coaches by seasons as discrete data points and reduce the data no further, then you can almost never make claims about how good any coach is because even the legends rarely coach beyond 40 years and that wouldn't be a great number of individual data points from which to evaluate.

It's not just the coaching. It's a long enough view to see if they made the adjustment or if the changes just hit them in their wheelhouse or if the new changes which are bound to happen are things they adjust to as well. IOW, I want at least a short video instead of a snapshot before I rush to a solution.

 

[donbosco]

"If you look at 5 years as a data set of ~175 games (~35 games per season) rather than only 5 discrete data points each a season long, there is much more data to use for evaluation and you can start to get a reasonable approximation of how each coach handles their duties." @SnoopRob

That's an interesting point and very valid I think. But in contrast...those are 5 unique years in the history of college basketball and really can't be compared with any other 5 year period for reasons that I noted...of course that is my 'take'...

 

[donbosco]

PS...I was pretty glad to see Cadeau move on.

Pretty dookish...too dookish for my taste.

 

[SnoopRob]

I should have checked on the FT thing.
UNC brand means very little now. It's about money. You would have fired Dean Smith I am sure.
This is a new day. There is an incredible amount of talent now. Much more than back in the day. Harder to dominate IMO. We are probably a round of 16 team now. Put EC on this team we got as good a chance as anyone but maybe dook and one or two more. The problem last year for EC was we had no outlet in the lane, which is why he and RJ had to force so many end of clock bad shots. EC would have thrived with Wilson and Vesscar. We are getting much better in half court offense. I think I heard yesterday we were one of top teams in 2 point fg defense. Perhaps cal and Stanford were an anomaly. Anyway we got a week to enjoy this win.

WWDD?

Carolina Basketball has more money than nearly every other D1 and P4 basketball program. We're among the top spenders in CBB. Money isn't our problem, it's how we use the money and how we "coach up" the players our money provides.

Again, the rest of your post is largely conjecture or facts that have no bearing on this discussion. For that reason, I'll largely leave it alone. But I will clarify for you that I would not have fired Dean Smith after seasons 4 or 5 of his tenure because he was given the primary task of running a clean program after recruiting and point shaving scandals and he was doing a great job at that task. But the certitude you show of not only an incorrect assumption about me but also an unprovable one shows why, at your core, you are and will always be an absolute fucking idiot.

 

[finesse]

PS...I was pretty glad to see Cadeau move on.

Pretty dookish...too dookish for my taste.

I really was high on him and wanted him to work out. However , I wouldn't have gone overboard to keep him. If nothing else, it seemed like he had rubbed every ref in the ACC the wrong way.

 

[heel79]

Carolina Basketball has more money than nearly every other D1 and P4 basketball program. We're among the top spenders in CBB. Money isn't our problem, it's how we use the money and how we "coach up" the players our money provides.

Again, the rest of your post is largely conjecture or facts that have no bearing on this discussion. For that reason, I'll largely leave it alone. But I will clarify for you that I would not have fired Dean Smith after seasons 4 or 5 of his tenure because he was given the primary task of running a clean program after recruiting and point shaving scandals and he was doing a great job at that task. But the certitude you show of not only an incorrect assumption about me but also an unprovable one shows why, at your core, you are and will always be an absolute fucking idiot.

Wow. Who would you have hired if not Hubert? As for Dean, he had largely done what was demanded, and that was to clean up the mess. I am skeptical that someone unhappy with 100 wins in four season would have been accepting of continued mediocrity. But sure.

WWDD?

 

[Geisterfahrer]

I know I keep posting about Dixon, but I’m just really impressed by him. He is actually sort of reminding me of a freshman Marcus Paige, but with a better three-point %. I don’t think he’s quite as good of a ball handler and he doesn’t seem quite as quick, but he seems to bring a lot of things to the table that Marcus Paige did.

Our whole backcourt benefitted greatly by UVA’s lack of quickness. Dixon’s handle is maybe what surprises me most, he’s pretty tight with the ball. Nothing like Marcus’s court vision though. Which is another amazing thing about Caleb, that dude sees the floor.

 

[superrific]

Just FYI: people on this thread may not actually be rooting against HD. I don't know what's in your mind and I don't pretend to.

But I will say that the observables appear gauge symmetric to rooting against HD. A lot of "good win buts"

 

[SnoopRob]

I appreciate that and understand what you’re saying. It kind of describes how I feel about BB and football. I don’t care about him personally. I only care about his ability to make the football team successful. It’s why my perspective in football and basketball differs.

I care a lot more about HD as a coach than I do Belichick as a coach.

I actively dislike Belichick and did before he ever stepped foot in CH. At best, I would have only tolerated him at Carolina Football HC and would have only celebrated his success because of the program rather than anything for him personally.

If HD does indeed leave CH, I genuinely hope that he is successful in whatever he takes up next.

 

[duluoz]

I usually just skip over these debates about the right way to be a fan. I will say the thing that irritates me a little about those on the more critical side is it doesn’t feel like they’re rooting for Hubert. I’m not saying they aren’t. That’s just the way it feels to me. And that’s hard for me to read because he’s such a big part of UNC basketball history. He’s one of a handful of players I remember being a really big fan of as a kid. I don’t know how long he’ll be the head coach, but as long as he’s here, I will be pulling so hard for his success.

With most of them, I’m sure they’d prefer a season clearly bad enough that HD is gone, over a season juuuust above the line where he keeps his job.

That reveals everything you need to know about that type of entitlement. Never mind how Dean, Roy, MJ, et al. would land on that hypothetical question. The greatest irony being that these people point to “Carolina standards” as their guiding rationale, as if they know more about that concept than the men who actually built those standards, and not just watched them from the stands or on tv.

 

[SnoopRob]

"If you look at 5 years as a data set of ~175 games (~35 games per season) rather than only 5 discrete data points each a season long, there is much more data to use for evaluation and you can start to get a reasonable approximation of how each coach handles their duties." @SnoopRob

That's an interesting point and very valid I think. But in contrast...those are 5 unique years in the history of college basketball and really can't be compared with any other 5 year period for reasons that I noted...of course that is my 'take'...

And every team we've played against in those 5 years have had to take on the exact same systemic struggles as Carolina and HD.

HD's main problem isn't that he's failing against the historical heights of Carolina Basketball, it's that he's often failing against the very real opponents his team plays on the court in the here and now.

 

[donbosco]

And every team we've played against in those 5 years have had to take on the exact same systemic struggles as Carolina and HD.

HD's main problem isn't that he's failing against the historical heights of Carolina Basketball, it's that he's often failing against the very real opponents his team plays on the court in the here and now.

I guess my point is, that no, Carolina's challenges have been uniquely Tar Heel, not much akin to anyone else's. One might even argue they are produced by the very distinctiveness of "The Carolina Way" and what Coach Smith built and Coach Williams buttressed.

 

[heel79]

And every team we've played against in those 5 years have had to take on the exact same systemic struggles as Carolina and HD.

HD's main problem isn't that he's failing against the historical heights of Carolina Basketball, it's that he's often failing against the very real opponents his team plays on the court in the here and now.

No. The failure is historical standards. 95 percent of division 1 programs would take our last 5 years over theirs. You still have not said who you would have hired. I think that's a fair question.

 

[SnoopRob]

Wow. Who would you have hired if not Hubert? As for Dean, he had largely done what was demanded, and that was to clean up the mess. I am skeptical that someone unhappy with 100 wins in four season would have been accepting of continued mediocrity. But sure.

WWDD?

After Roy, when there was no obvious successor on the Carolina bench nor in the Carolina Family, I wanted the AD to run a legitimate search by which to hire the best coach we could have convinced to come to Chapel Hill to be the next coach of Carolina Basketball. For me, it was more about the process than about a specific outcome.

 

[BillOfRights]

It's easiest to take your points one-by-one, so that's what I'll do.

It's up to players to play with energy and make make plays, but when we have game after game and season after season of different players not playing with energy and not making plays, then the ultimate blame lies with the coaches. And, on the whole under HD, a wide variety of players have consistently not made the plays. Again, this is back to the it's not about "one game" or "one season" excuse...our team failing to play up to their talent level is a consistent issue under HD.



I think that HD has likely improved as a coach during his time as HC, but it's not been enough to make a difference in our overall performance across multiple games and seasons. If someone isn't meeting the base level goals, it doensn't really matter that they're only failing by 25% rather than 50%.



My issue with enjoying games is that we have many of the same problems over the last 5 games that we had over the first 18 games of the 2021-2022 season...the team simply doesn't seem to play hard, smart, and together in a way that both maximizes their individual abilities nor the ability of the collective team to succeed. Again, I have little doubt that HD is a better coach than he was when he was hired, but he's not improved enough that the team is consistently successful.


I find this season (and nearly every season under HD) utterly frustrating. Our players are clearly talented in total and each player has skills that should contribute to team success, but the performance of the team, in total, has been and continues to be that we don't play well - either against our potential nor against actual opponents - on a consistent basis. The second half of yesterday's game was a lot of fun, but that kind of collective performance has been rare under HD. And I have little evidence that the next half or the next game or the rest of the season will show similarly good performance as we saw in the second half yeasterday, which makes it pretty hard to be excited about that half or that game or the rest of the season.

I don't think you can find 10 P5 coaches that are consistently satisfied with their team's effort.

I think fans' "goals" are often a product of selective memories. We romanticize the past without remembering the struggles. Coach Smith had down years. Coach Williams had down years. Nobody will ever go to 13 consecutive sweet sixteens again.

My assessment of Davis's improvement differs from yours. I see it in halftime adjustments. I see it in plays out of timeouts. I think it has made a difference in overall performance.

For me this season isn't nearly as frustrating as the Caleb Love/RJ Davis era. If you want to avoid frustration, I suggest a different hobby instead of college sports.

Several posts, including yours, have mentioned consistency. 18-23 year old American males is a bad place to look for consistency. As donbosco pointed out, COVID, NIL, and the portal have had a major impact. Kentucky, Kansas, UCLA, Purdue, and Michigan State have been inconsistent game to game and year to year. Carolina has won more ACC games in Coach Davis's tenure than all but 1 team. That is, if not consistent excellence, at least consistent really-goodness.

I get your frustration. I don't understand some lineup decisions. Last season I wanted more Withers at the 4 and Powell at the 3. I'm finally getting more Dixon and less Evans, but I still want more Powell. Lack of defense for 4 straight games. Poor 3FG and FT shooting. I understand, however, that there is only so much a coaching staff can do.

I also don't have any confidence that a new coach would be better. Who? Dusty May or TJ Otzelberger? Unless you think Mark Byington is ready and willing... Hard pass on the Nate Oats, Scott Drew and Todd Goldens of the world.

You may consider me a sunshine pumper. I don't. Maybe I have an advantage because i'm not surrounded by other Carolina fans. I'm not subject to groupthink in that regard. You guys (and ladies) are my Carolina family, and I appreciate the diversity of comments. I just think that this team is fun to watch, and I can't think of anyone realistically that I would rather have coaching this team than Coach Davis.

 

[SnoopRob]

I guess my point is, that no, Carolina's challenges have been uniquely Tar Heel, not much akin to anyone else's. One might even argue they are produced by the very distinctiveness of "The Carolina Way" and what Coach Smith built and Coach Williams buttressed.

And our disagreement is that I believe Carolina's challenges have largely been those systemic to the current milieu of CBB and, where Carolina has struggled in meeting those challenges, it is because we have specifically made poor choices in how to address them.

Of course, that disagreement is largely a matter of perception and I doubt either of us will convince the other. But I am glad we can both be fans of Carolina Basketball and hope for its success together.

 

[donbosco]

I usually just skip over these debates about the right way to be a fan. I will say the thing that irritates me a little about those on the more critical side is it doesn’t feel like they’re rooting for Hubert. I’m not saying they aren’t. That’s just the way it feels to me. And that’s hard for me to read because he’s such a big part of UNC basketball history. He’s one of a handful of players I remember being a really big fan of as a kid. I don’t know how long he’ll be the head coach, but as long as he’s here, I will be pulling so hard for his success.

I know folks that are/were big fans but cannot bring themselves to pull for Coach Davis and pretty actively denigrate him but still pull for Carolina to win. In at least one case for his deep Christian faith and "aw shucks" demeanor. Others fall in the category of those who really wanted to leave the 'family' tree behind.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Are you looking at it in context of UNC beating a 14th ranked team? Or are you looking at it as a team, facing a higher ranked team who is undefeated at home , who is coming off a couple of tough losses sucking it up after falling behind and salvaging a win while getting back in contention for an NCAA bid? To me, context matters.

I think looking at it in any light says a lot about how far removed we are from what was UNC basketball. Perhaps that version of UNC basketball is gone, and perhaps I just need to accept it. But fuck, we're spending at a top-5 level on the roster, and yet we're playing know where near that level. To add to that, our biggest rival just keeps rolling, while we're performing at the level of a fringe top 20 program under HD. I'm frustrated.

 

[heel79]

After Roy, when there was no obvious successor on the Carolina bench nor in the Carolina Family, I wanted the AD to run a legitimate search by which to hire the best coach we could have convinced to come to Chapel Hill to be the next coach of Carolina Basketball. For me, it was more about the process than about a specific outcome.

You must really be pissed at Roy. I got a buddy who wanted Wes Miller. He doesn't talk about Wes much anymore but he has not warmed up to Hubert.
WWDD?