Biorhythms for Carolina @Virginia: Post-Game Discussion

stankeylegjones said:
If this season ends the way it's been going (around a fringe top-25 team according to all of the analytics), would that be enough to part ways with him, in your opinion?
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I think he needs to do better than that. We hired a GM and dropped a lot of cash on this team. IMO he needs to do more than have a borderline season. He's had 2 good and 2 bad. He needs this one to end better than we are now. I think this team will get better, though. I think Seth is getting back into game mode, the team is remembering how to paly with him, and we are figuring out the PG situation. If that continues, I think HD should keep his job. If we continue to shit the bed like the Cali trip with the occasional good win like UVA and stay top 25ish, then I think he's had his chance. But I'd love for us to just stop making every single win or loss a referendum on this topic... it just might cost us the #1 PG in next year's class.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
I think he needs to do better than that. We hired a GM and dropped a lot of cash on this team. IMO he needs to do more than have a borderline season. He's had 2 good and 2 bad. He needs this one to end better than we are now. I think this team will get better, though. I think Seth is getting back into game mode, the team is remembering how to paly with him, and we are figuring out the PG situation. If that continues, I think HD should keep his job. If we continue to shit the bed like the Cali trip with the occasional good win like UVA and stay top 25ish, then I think he's had his chance. But I'd love for us to just stop making every single win or loss a referendum on this topic... it just might cost us the #1 PG in next year's class.
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Are we having a borderline season at present?
 
I don't know exactly what it means to continue on the current path this season. But if it means a season where we're in the top 25 all year, end up with a 5/6/7 seed, maybe win a game in the tournament, and Davis gets fired at the end, I think there will be a lot of backlash. I'm not at all confident in what the next hire might look like. But I think it will at least be an entertaining circus.
 
PTOHeel said:
I don't know exactly what it means to continue on the current path this season. But if it means a season where we're in the top 25 all year, end up with a 5/6/7 seed, maybe win a game in the tournament, and Davis gets fired at the end, I think there will be a lot of backlash. I'm not at all confident in what the next hire might look like. But I think it will at least be an entertaining circus.
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I'm too old to care much. Course, I have a little different perspective. It wasn't such a birthright when I was growing up. The year I was 10, UNC was 7-7. It got better. I feel like I've gotten to watch some great runs with some ups and downs and I'm grateful for the experience. Until recently, the best part of that has come from the Carolina family which is a lot more real than the Semesterhood that other team touts. It might have lost its vigor and it might have lost its value. I don't think so but it's not mine to decide. In the words of Ray Wiley Hubbard
And the days that I keep my gratitude
Higher than my expectations
Ah! Well, I have really good days
 
I do completely understand people being nervous over who would be in charge of the next hire. That is definitely a legitimate concern.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
I think he needs to do better than that. We hired a GM and dropped a lot of cash on this team. IMO he needs to do more than have a borderline season. He's had 2 good and 2 bad. He needs this one to end better than we are now. I think this team will get better, though. I think Seth is getting back into game mode, the team is remembering how to paly with him, and we are figuring out the PG situation. If that continues, I think HD should keep his job. If we continue to shit the bed like the Cali trip with the occasional good win like UVA and stay top 25ish, then I think he's had his chance. But I'd love for us to just stop making every single win or loss a referendum on this topic... it just might cost us the #1 PG in next year's class.
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Thank you for sharing.
 
NYCBlueBlood said:
IMO, the things impacting our drop in D from Dec to Jan are:

- Seth coming back
- Our entire team being new
- Long road trip after the holidays
- Lack of athleticism on the wings
- Need to adjust lineups due to solving for PG/wing issues
- Our top player being a freshman (not raised by an NBA journeyman)
- Level of competition increasing going from preseason to ACC play (this one is iffy, thus last)
- Others?

All this being said, we should not have crapped the bed the way we did. Our D should not have dropped off the way it did. There are legit criticisms of HD not fixing/ solving for it faster.
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- Seth coming back
Yes
- Our entire team being new
No
- Long road trip after the holidays
Maybe
- Lack of athleticism on the wings
No
- Need to adjust lineups due to solving for PG/wing issues
No
- Our top player being a freshman (not raised by an NBA journeyman)
No
- Level of competition increasing going from preseason to ACC play (this one is iffy, thus last)
No
- There are legit criticisms of HD not fixing/ solving for it faster.
No
 
donbosco said:
Now I'm wondering how many borderline seasons Coach Smith and Coach Williams had.
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Coach Williams, given the historical standards, probably 2010, 2013, 2014, 2020, 2021. The last 2 years made him retire.
Every other year was in the top 10 in kenpom except 2004, his first year, was 11th and 2011 was a 2 seed and 15th.

After 1967, Coach Smith basically never had a season as bad as 2 of Hubert’s last 3 years. off the top of my head, Closest to borderline would be 90 and 96.
 
Here is our talent level as rated by 247 Composite

Star-rating descending (247 Composite only):
Caleb Wilson — 5★
Seth Trimble — 4★
Derek Dixon — 4★
Jarin Stevenson — 4★
Isaiah Denis — 4★
Jonathan Powell — 3★
Jaydon Young — 3★
Kyan Evans — NR
Luka Bogavac — NR -- projected as a high 3/low 4
Henri Veesaar — NR -- projected as a 4
James Brown — NR
Zayden High — NR
As I had written earlier, I'm not particularly enamored of such rankings but I ran the roster through ChatGPT just the same to get some idea.

For comparison...the University of Arizona
Star-rating descending (247 Composite baseline + proxy):
Brayden Burries — 5★ (247 Composite #11 overall in 2025)
Koa Peat — 5★ (247 Composite #8 overall in 2025)
Dwayne Aristode — 4★ (247 Composite #24 overall)
Bryce James — 3★ (247 Composite ~#324)
Sidi Gueye — 3★ (247 Composite ~#161)
Mabil Mawut — 3★ (247 Composite ~#407)
Proxy/parallel 247 Composite equivalents (international or no Composite):
Motiejus Krivas — proxy 3★-4★ (international pro experience, likely above typical unranked freshman)
Tobe Awaka — proxy 3★-4★ (solid prep player with strong stats, no Composite rank)
Ivan Kharchenkov — proxy 3★ (international player without Composite rank; Euro youth productivity suggests mid-tier)

What about dook?
Star-rating descending (247 Composite baseline + proxy equivalents):
Cameron Boozer — 5★ (247Sports Composite ~0.9993, #3 overall)
Nikolas Khamenia — 4★ (~0.9922, ~#19 overall)
Cayden Boozer — 4★ (~0.9921, ~#20–21 overall)
Sebastian Wilkins — 4★ (247 Composite ~#35 overall)
Jonathan Foster — NR composite (but played in U.S. system; likely 3★ proxy)
Caleb Foster — NR composite (veteran recruit; 3★ proxy)
Isaiah Evans — NR composite (former recruit, 3★ proxy)
Patrick Ngongba II — NR composite (formerly a 4★ recruit but not in current 247 composite; 4★ proxy)
Dame Sarr — 3★ (247Sports Composite ~#32 overall)
Darren Harris — NR composite (freshman signee, 3★ proxy)
Maliq Brown — NR composite (transfer/recruit background; 3★ proxy)

Thoughts?
 
uncjhodges said:
Coach Williams, given the historical standards, probably 2010, 2013, 2014, 2020, 2021. The last 2 years made him retire.
Every other year was in the top 10 in kenpom except 2004, his first year, was 11th and 2011 was a 2 seed and 15th.

After 1967, Coach Smith basically never had a season as bad as 2 of Hubert’s last 3 years. off the top of my head, Closest to borderline would be 90 and 96.
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1970 wasn’t all that good, relatively speaking (18-9, first round ACCT loss).
 
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donbosco said:
Here is our talent level as rated by 247 Composite

Star-rating descending (247 Composite only):
Caleb Wilson — 5★
Seth Trimble — 4★
Derek Dixon — 4★
Jarin Stevenson — 4★
Isaiah Denis — 4★
Jonathan Powell — 3★
Jaydon Young — 3★
Kyan Evans — NR
Luka Bogavac — NR -- projected as a high 3/low 4
Henri Veesaar — NR -- projected as a 4
James Brown — NR
Zayden High — NR
As I had written earlier, I'm not particularly enamored of such rankings but I ran the roster through ChatGPT just the same to get some idea.

For comparison...the University of Arizona
Star-rating descending (247 Composite baseline + proxy):
Brayden Burries — 5★ (247 Composite #11 overall in 2025)
Koa Peat — 5★ (247 Composite #8 overall in 2025)
Dwayne Aristode — 4★ (247 Composite #24 overall)
Bryce James — 3★ (247 Composite ~#324)
Sidi Gueye — 3★ (247 Composite ~#161)
Mabil Mawut — 3★ (247 Composite ~#407)
Proxy/parallel 247 Composite equivalents (international or no Composite):
Motiejus Krivas — proxy 3★-4★ (international pro experience, likely above typical unranked freshman)
Tobe Awaka — proxy 3★-4★ (solid prep player with strong stats, no Composite rank)
Ivan Kharchenkov — proxy 3★ (international player without Composite rank; Euro youth productivity suggests mid-tier)

What about dook?
Star-rating descending (247 Composite baseline + proxy equivalents):
Cameron Boozer — 5★ (247Sports Composite ~0.9993, #3 overall)
Nikolas Khamenia — 4★ (~0.9922, ~#19 overall)
Cayden Boozer — 4★ (~0.9921, ~#20–21 overall)
Sebastian Wilkins — 4★ (247 Composite ~#35 overall)
Jonathan Foster — NR composite (but played in U.S. system; likely 3★ proxy)
Caleb Foster — NR composite (veteran recruit; 3★ proxy)
Isaiah Evans — NR composite (former recruit, 3★ proxy)
Patrick Ngongba II — NR composite (formerly a 4★ recruit but not in current 247 composite; 4★ proxy)
Dame Sarr — 3★ (247Sports Composite ~#32 overall)
Darren Harris — NR composite (freshman signee, 3★ proxy)
Maliq Brown — NR composite (transfer/recruit background; 3★ proxy)

Thoughts?
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Isaiah Evans, a top 2024 recruit and current Duke freshman, was ranked as a consensus five-star player nationally (around #8 by ESPN, #10 by 247Sports) and the #1 player in North Carolina by ESPN

Patrick Ngongba II is a 6'11" sophomore center for the Duke Blue Devils, entering the 2026 NBA Draft conversation as a potential first-round pick. Formerly a five-star recruit (No. 19 overall, 247Sports) in the 2024 class, he has shown elite efficiency and defensive potential as a high-level big man.

Dame Sarr, a 6-foot-7 (or 6'8") elite international guard/forward from Italy, is a 5-star prospectin the 2025 recruiting class, ranked as high as No. 17 overall in the final On3 150 rankings.

Caleb Foster was a highly-rated five-star point guard in the 2023 recruiting class, ranking as the No. 13-24 prospect nationally.

Darren Harris was a consensus four-star, top-60 shooting guard prospect in the 2024 class from Paul VI Catholic in Virginia who committed to Duke. Ranked around No. 31–56 nationally(No. 45 by ESPN, No. 56 by 247Sports), he was the 2023-24 Gatorade Virginia Player of the Year, known as an elite shooter and 2024 state champion.
 
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Bigs23 said:
Isaiah Evans, a top 2024 recruit and current Duke freshman, was ranked as a consensus five-star player nationally (around #8 by ESPN, #10 by 247Sports) and the #1 player in North Carolina by ESPN

Patrick Ngongba II is a 6'11" sophomore center for the Duke Blue Devils, entering the 2026 NBA Draft conversation as a potential first-round pick. Formerly a five-star recruit (No. 19 overall, 247Sports) in the 2024 class, he has shown elite efficiency and defensive potential as a high-level big man.

Dame Sarr, a 6-foot-7 (or 6'8") elite international guard/forward from Italy, is a 5-star prospectin the 2025 recruiting class, ranked as high as No. 17 overall in the final On3 150 rankings.

Caleb Foster was a highly-rated five-star point guard in the 2023 recruiting class, ranking as the No. 13-24 prospect nationally.

Darren Harris was a consensus four-star, top-60 shooting guard prospect in the 2024 class from Paul VI Catholic in Virginia who committed to Duke. Ranked around No. 31–56 nationally(No. 45 by ESPN, No. 56 by 247Sports), he was the 2023-24 Gatorade Virginia Player of the Year, known as an elite shooter and 2024 state champion.
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Damn - that’s astronomical.
 
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