Biorhythms for Florida State in Chapel Hill: 7 PM Start on ESPN2

[Centerpiece]

I'll take Caleb's wisdom, Powell's athleticism and Trimble's "want-to" for $1000 Alex... and make it a true Daily Double.

I knew my trust in Caleb, Seth and Powell wasn’t misplaced. Powell with 26 minutes of good D and putting up crooked numbers in several catagories on the stat sheet.
Caleb and Seth breaking or tying their own personal bests in rebounds and points, respectively

 

[GoHeelsweeeehoooo]

I wonder if at some point Powell will replace Bogavac in the starting lineup

 

[finesse]

I wonder if at some point Powell will replace Bogavac in the starting lineup

I could get over that.

 

[Heelsandeers]

J Stevenson 3P shooting watch

16% and 1 of his last 17

 

[finesse]

J Stevenson 3P shooting watch

16% and 1 of his last 17

Yeah. His stroke looks too good for it to be that bad but it is. I like everything else he brings so it's worth playing him so he'll get a chance for it to come around. It's not worth playing him a whole lot unless it does ,though.

 

[SnoopRob]

J Stevenson 3P shooting watch

16% and 1 of his last 17

1) I think it’ll get better. (It kinda has to, right? I mean, progress to the mean and all that?)

2) This is why he should be getting a good bit of his minutes at the 4/5 instead of the 3.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Overall, the team shoots .329

117 for 356

Who would have thought that our 7-footer would potentially be one of the best 3-point shooters we’ve ever had?

 

[donbosco]

Kind of serious but I think we oughta do something for Trimble behind the backboard - cushions and space.

 

[heel79]

Interesting game for evans - he made some big threes for us but also had some really ugly misses - also really hoping Bogavac starts figuring things out

Evans ends up with ball in his hands at end of shot click a lot and has to force things.

 

[duluoz]

Apart from Manek and maybe Cormac, it seems as if so many supposed sharpshooters or even steady shooters who transferred in suddenly bottomed out. And it’s not due to not getting enough clean looks. Or being overwhelmed by competition. Just plain became bad shooters on great looks at the rim.

Withers, Tyson, Wojick, Nance, off the top of my head, and now Evans, Stevenson, Luka all on the same squad. I don’t get it.

 

[donbosco]

Apart from Manek and maybe Cormac, it seems as if so many supposed sharpshooters or even steady shooters who transferred in suddenly bottomed out. And it’s not due to not getting enough clean looks. Or being overwhelmed by competition. Just plain became bad shooters on great looks at the rim.

Withers, Tyson, Wojick, Nance, off the top of my head, and now Evans, Stevenson, Luka all on the same squad. I don’t get it.

Max Owens/Michael Brooker Syndrome.

 

[Heelsandeers]

Overall, the team shoots .329

117 for 356

Take out the bye games and it's way worse

42 for 154. .273 vs KU, MSU, UK, GTOWN, OSU, FSU

Veesaar 44% 7-16
Powell 38% 8-21
Dixon 35% 6-17
Evans 26% 8-31
Trimble 25% 3-12
Bogavac 24% 6-25
Stevenson 15% 3-20
Wilson 0% 0-8

Powell played 26 mins vs FSU which was a season high

 

[donbosco]

Take out the bye games and it's way worse

42 for 154. .273 vs KU, MSU, UK, GTOWN, OSU, FSU

Veesaar 44% 7-16
Powell 38% 8-21
Evans 26% 8-31
Trimble 25% 3-12
Bogavac 24% 6-25
Stevenson 15% 3-20
Wilson 0% 0-8

Powell played 26 mins vs FSU which was a season high

Dixon?

 

[Icky Mettle]

Apart from Manek and maybe Cormac, it seems as if so many supposed sharpshooters or even steady shooters who transferred in suddenly bottomed out. And it’s not due to not getting enough clean looks. Or being overwhelmed by competition. Just plain became bad shooters on great looks at the rim.

Withers, Tyson, Wojick, Nance, off the top of my head, and now Evans, Stevenson, Luka all on the same squad. I don’t get it.

I posted about this before, but, at least historically, it’s a little more perception than reality. Also you forgot Ingram who vastly improved his 3-point shooting at UNC from previous years, and not entirely correct on Withers (see below), but here is part of my post from when we previously discussed this:

Brady Manek shot the best 3-point % of his career under Davis (that was the only season of his career he shot over 40%).

Harrison Ingram shot the best 3-point % of his career under Davis by about 7%.

Cormac Ryan shot the second-best 3-point % of his career under Davis (the .407 he shot two years before coming to UNC was the anomaly).

Jae’lyn Withers didn’t have a lot of 3-point attempts throughout most of his career and was very inconsistent from year to year, but his fifth year Davis gave him more of a green light and he had his best 3-point % of his career at .443 (an excellent percentage).

Not a transfer, but I believe Ian Jackson’s .395 was the second highest 3-point % any UNC freshman has shot after Kerwin Walton’s 42% (Walton’s % dropped after Davis took over for Roy, but so did his playing time). Jackson is shooting a slightly lower % this season under Pitino (.368).

 

[Centerpiece]

I posted about this before, but, at least historically, it’s a little more perception than reality. Also you forgot Ingram who vastly improved his 3-point shooting at UNC from previous years, and not entirely correct on Withers (see below), but here is part of my post from when we previously discussed this:

Brady Manek shot the best 3-point % of his career under Davis (that was the only season of his career he shot over 40%).

Harrison Ingram shot the best 3-point % of his career under Davis by about 7%.

Cormac Ryan shot the second-best 3-point % of his career under Davis (the .407 he shot two years before coming to UNC was the anomaly).

Jae’lyn Withers didn’t have a lot of 3-point attempts throughout most of his career and was very inconsistent from year to year, but his fifth year Davis gave him more of a green light and he had his best 3-point % of his career at .443 (an excellent percentage).

Not a transfer, but I believe Ian Jackson’s .395 was the second highest 3-point % any UNC freshman has shot after Kerwin Walton’s 42% (Walton’s % dropped after Davis took over for Roy, but so did his playing time). Jackson is shooting a slightly lower % this season under Pitino (.368).

Exactly... "more perception than reality"

 

[superrific]

I posted about this before, but, at least historically, it’s a little more perception than reality.

I disagree. I think there is a reality. You're right to bring up counter-examples, but I'd respond as follows:

1. Neither Manek nor Ingram were brought in specifically to be shooters. That was a pleasant surprise. Both were playable without it. It's the guys who we bring in specifically to shoot, and then who lose the ability to do so -- that's the frustrating part.

2. Volume matters. Withers was shooting just over 2 a game. That's not nothing, but it's not going to move the needle all that much. Plus, the year before he was horrible.

3. Ryan shot at basically his career average (.354 versus .352), which isn't dropping off a cliff but one might have hoped for some improvement, either from age/experience or just better shots.

4. Manek shot 40.3% compared to his career average of .382, so that's basically a wash. He didn't get worse, but he didn't improve a lot either.

And that's kind of the point. We've had many guys just fall off a cliff; our success stories are guys who were basically at career levels. Ingram is the one success.

5. So you're right that the perception is perhaps skewed, but I'd bet an empirical analysis would show a decline. Evans is starting to find his stroke a little bit maybe, and he could right the ship (but even his FT % is significantly down), so it could change by year's end. But Sevenson? Sigh. And I have no idea about Luka. Henri is way up compared to his career average; let's see if he can keep it up. But again, it's a bad trade if we're getting a good % on 2 attempts from him and a bad % on 5 attempts per game from Evans.

 

[Icky Mettle]

I disagree. I think there is a reality. You're right to bring up counter-examples, but I'd respond as follows:

1. Neither Manek nor Ingram were brought in specifically to be shooters. That was a pleasant surprise. Both were playable without it. It's the guys who we bring in specifically to shoot, and then who lose the ability to do so -- that's the frustrating part.

2. Volume matters. Withers was shooting just over 2 a game. That's not nothing, but it's not going to move the needle all that much. Plus, the year before he was horrible.

3. Ryan shot at basically his career average (.354 versus .352), which isn't dropping off a cliff but one might have hoped for some improvement, either from age/experience or just better shots.

4. Manek shot 40.3% compared to his career average of .382, so that's basically a wash. He didn't get worse, but he didn't improve a lot either.

And that's kind of the point. We've had many guys just fall off a cliff; our success stories are guys who were basically at career levels. Ingram is the one success.

5. So you're right that the perception is perhaps skewed, but I'd bet an empirical analysis would show a decline. Evans is starting to find his stroke a little bit maybe, and he could right the ship (but even his FT % is significantly down), so it could change by year's end. But Sevenson? Sigh. And I have no idea about Luka. Henri is way up compared to his career average; let's see if he can keep it up. But again, it's a bad trade if we're getting a good % on 2 attempts from him and a bad % on 5 attempts per game from Evans.

Withers shot 2.4 threes per game his 5th year when he shot .443. He took just 0.5 per game the season before. I also disagree that improving one’s 3pt % by 2% once you hit at least 35+% (as in Manek’s case) is a wash. I’m not saying anything about players this season, as we’re not even halfway done, I’m talking about past players in the HD era. The only guys we really brought in in the HD era with a reputation for being a sharpshooters and didn’t live up to that were Cade and perhaps Wojcik, but they also didn’t come from the most competitive conferences and didn’t have a whole lot more to their skill sets or physical attributes to warrant much playing time.

 

[superrific]

Withers shot 2.4 threes per game his 5th year when he shot .443. He took just 0.5 per game the season before. I also disagree that improving one’s 3pt % by 2% once you hit at least 35+% (as in Manek’s case) is a wash. I’m not saying anything about players this season, as we’re not even halfway done, I’m talking about past players in the HD era. The only guys we really brought in in the HD era with a reputation for being a sharpshooters and didn’t live up to that were Cade and perhaps Wojcik, but they also didn’t come from the most competitive conferences and didn’t have a whole lot more to their skill sets or physical attributes to warrant much playing time.

On a small sample size of 30-40 games, 2% is noise. Also some of our HS players seemingly lost their touch. Whatever, if it's real, I don't think it's HD's fault, it's just frustrating.

 

[Heelsandeers]

Team 3P shooting:

2022 35.8%
2023 31.2%
2024 35.9%
2025 35.6%

Just not a lot of good or efficient shooters in 4 years. So when players who are supposed to be good shooters aren’t it stands out

I believe RJ, Manek, Ingram, Ian, and Love jr year are the only players to shoot it >36% on 3+ 3PA

Drake and Withers jr yr the only players at >36% on 2+ 3PA

If Withers is like the 5th best shooter you can point to that really speaks to the shooting struggles