Biorhythms for Florida State in Chapel Hill: 7 PM Start on ESPN2

Heelsandeers said:
Team 3P shooting:

2022 35.8%
2023 31.2%
2024 35.9%
2025 35.6%

Just not a lot of good or efficient shooters in 4 years. So when players who are supposed to be good shooters aren’t it stands out

I believe RJ, Manek, Ingram, Ian, and Love jr year are the only players to shoot it >36% on 3+ 3PA

Drake and Withers 5th yr the only players at >36% on 2+ 3PA

If Withers is like the 5th best shooter you can point to that really speaks to the shooting struggles
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The 31.2% in 2023 stands out and wasn’t good, but the other numbers aren’t too far off from the norm over the past 20+ years and better than quite a few years. If you go back before the years you cited, from 2005-2021, here are the numbers:

2005 - .403 (exceptional)
2006 - .375
2007 - .358
2008 - .372
2009 - .387
2010 - .328
2011 - .328
2012 - .334
2013 - .376
2014 - .336
2015 - .358
2016 - .327
2017 - .355
2018 - .359
2019 - .362 (we had Cam Johnson shooting lights out that year)
2020 - .304
2021 - .318

So our average team 3pt% between 2005 and 2021 was .352, which is lower than 2022, 2024, and 2025. So those years really aren’t bad comparatively. If you look at the 2025 % of .356 (the second lowest after the 2023 %), we had 8 seasons between 2005 and 2021 (nearly half) where we shot a worse %. We had only 3 seasons where we shot better than that by 2% or more.

In the the 21 seasons between 2005 and 2025, 2025 would rank 11th best in team 3pt %, 2024 would tie with 2018 for 7th best, and 2022 would tie with 2015 for 9th best.

Also, re: Withers. Numbers are numbers. His 5th year he shot .443 from 3, which is one of the all-time best 3pt percentages in UNC history (though his 2.4 attempts per game is not enough to put him in the record books).

ETA: re: the number of players to shoot 36% or better from 3 on 3+ attempts per game, it's not like there have been that many over the past 20+ years. The 5 mentioned are 5 in 4 seasons (2022-25), or 1.25 per season. Between 2005 and 2021, there were a total of 20 UNC players who shot 36% or better on at least 3 attempts per game, or 1.17 per season. (Those players were McCants, Felton, Terry, Noel, Wes Miller, Ellington, Green, Lawson, Graves, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Paige, Berry, Jackson, Maye, Kenny Williams, Cam Johnson, Brandon Robinson, and Walton.)
 
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Icky Mettle said:
That’s why when you’re shooting near or at that very-difficult-to-attain level, every whole percentage point is pretty significant.
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It's not a question of significance; it's a question of whether it's just a statistical artefact.

Suppose a baseball player is a career .274 hitter. He hits .307 one year. Would that change your perception of him as a hitter? Or did he just have a good year? He's probably still a .274-.280 hitter.
 
superrific said:
It's not a question of significance; it's a question of whether it's just a statistical artefact.

Suppose a baseball player is a career .274 hitter. He hits .307 one year. Would that change your perception of him as a hitter? Or did he just have a good year? He's probably still a .274-.280 hitter.
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I don't watch or follow baseball at all, so unfortunately I can't address that analogy.
 
OK, think like this. Steph Curry's shooting from 2012 to his injury is as follows (3 point %): 45.3%, 42.4, 44.3, 45.4, 41.1, 42.3, 43.7. There are multiple 2 or 3 point jumps in there. Do we think that Steph's ability changed meaningfully, or is this just normal variation in relatively small sample sizes (even the NBA season is about 80 games)? He was shooting 600 3s in some of those years so in terms of shots, the sample size is much bigger than Manek.

Point is: maybe Manek improved, but odds are that it was just normal variation around his mean.
 
superrific said:
OK, think like this. Steph Curry's shooting from 2012 to his injury is as follows (3 point %): 45.3%, 42.4, 44.3, 45.4, 41.1, 42.3, 43.7. There are multiple 2 or 3 point jumps in there. Do we think that Steph's ability changed meaningfully, or is this just normal variation in relatively small sample sizes (even the NBA season is about 80 games)? He was shooting 600 3s in some of those years so in terms of shots, the sample size is much bigger than Manek.

Point is: maybe Manek improved, but odds are that it was just normal variation around his mean.
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Well yeah. I wasn’t arguing against that point. Had he played one more season, he may have shot 35% or worse. Or maybe he would have continued to improve prove his percentage. Who knows? My point was simply that he was an example of a player whose 3pt % did not decline after transferring to UNC, and in fact, it improved. And I think your point goes both ways, as other players may come to UNC and see their percentage drop despite their shooting “ability” essentially being what it was previously.

Very few players shoot the same 3pt % percentage every year or continuously improve their % each year.
 
Icky Mettle said:
The 31.2% in 2023 stands out and wasn’t good, but the other numbers aren’t too far off from the norm over the past 20+ years and better than quite a few years. If you go back before the years you cited, from 2005-2021, here are the numbers:

So our average team 3pt% between 2005 and 2021 was .352, which is lower than 2022, 2024, and 2025. So those years really aren’t bad comparatively. If you look at the 2025 % of .356 (the second lowest after the 2023 %), we had 8 seasons between 2005 and 2021 (nearly half) where we shot a worse %. We had only 3 seasons where we shot better than that by 2% or more.
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I think the biggest difference is roster construction. The better Roy teams had 2 and sometimes 3 legitimate front court players who were threats to score inside. You saw some of that with Ingram/Bacot but not really otherwise until this season

Also, a lot of those poor shooting Roy teams didn't take 22-24 3PA per game. Maybe some did. You're right though, 36% isn't terrible and more than enough if you excel in other areas. If this year's team can get to that % watch out
 
Rock said:
Can you elaborate on how they haven’t improved much?
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In a nutshell, HD/staff are far too much running sets, in leads to stagnant offense, bad shots, bad decisions. This team is far better running freelance. On defense, the quick switching leads to few turnovers, mismatches, more difficult rebounding, etc. Overall, this team comes out not ready to play far more often than they should, as well as poor stretches.

Having said that, 13-1 is freaking 13-1, which is awesome.
 
Bigs23 said:
He's going to ALWAYS find a way to take a shot Hubert.

Fuck that guy.
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Bigs, once I realized last season that you have absolutely no clue about basketball I self-imposed a rule to simply not respond to any of your posts. I'm not observing that rule to say, fuck you too.
 
Icky Mettle said:
The 31.2% in 2023 stands out and wasn’t good, but the other numbers aren’t too far off from the norm over the past 20+ years and better than quite a few years. If you go back before the years you cited, from 2005-2021, here are the numbers:

2005 - .403 (exceptional)
2006 - .375
2007 - .358
2008 - .372
2009 - .387
2010 - .328
2011 - .328
2012 - .334
2013 - .376
2014 - .336
2015 - .358
2016 - .327
2017 - .355
2018 - .359
2019 - .362 (we had Cam Johnson shooting lights out that year)
2020 - .304
2021 - .318

So our average team 3pt% between 2005 and 2021 was .352, which is lower than 2022, 2024, and 2025. So those years really aren’t bad comparatively. If you look at the 2025 % of .356 (the second lowest after the 2023 %), we had 8 seasons between 2005 and 2021 (nearly half) where we shot a worse %. We had only 3 seasons where we shot better than that by 2% or more.

In the the 21 seasons between 2005 and 2025, 2025 would rank 11th best in team 3pt %, 2024 would tie with 2018 for 7th best, and 2022 would tie with 2015 for 9th best.

Also, re: Withers. Numbers are numbers. His 5th year he shot .443 from 3, which is one of the all-time best 3pt percentages in UNC history (though his 2.4 attempts per game is not enough to put him in the record books).

ETA: re: the number of players to shoot 36% or better from 3 on 3+ attempts per game, it's not like there have been that many over the past 20+ years. The 5 mentioned are 5 in 4 seasons (2022-25), or 1.25 per season. Between 2005 and 2021, there were a total of 20 UNC players who shot 36% or better on at least 3 attempts per game, or 1.17 per season. (Those players were McCants, Felton, Terry, Noel, Wes Miller, Ellington, Green, Lawson, Graves, McDonald, Bullock, Hairston, Paige, Berry, Jackson, Maye, Kenny Williams, Cam Johnson, Brandon Robinson, and Walton.)
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What % of total shots were from 3pt in those years? What % of those misses were rebounded?
 
stankeylegjones said:
In a nutshell, HD/staff are far too much running sets, in leads to stagnant offense, bad shots, bad decisions. This team is far better running freelance. On defense, the quick switching leads to few turnovers, mismatches, more difficult rebounding, etc. Overall, this team comes out not ready to play far more often than they should, as well as poor stretches.

Having said that, 13-1 is freaking 13-1, which is awesome.
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I feel the same way. Yes, the record is great, but I think the team could be even better if they ran a different half court offense with more freelance movement that included more screens off the ball and cuts to the basket. Also not a fan of switching all the time. And I have thought this from the beginning with Hubert as the coach. It seems every other team plays the same way, though. Hubert doesn't have to do the same thing as everyone else, but I guess he feels this is the best defense and offense. I just don't agree it gives them the best possible chance to be as successful as possible, especially with the offense.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I don’t know how to get stats for rebounds on missed 3pt attempts, but generally speaking, the % of 3pt shots out of total shots has increased slightly over the years, but it’s not a steady increase.
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I would've thought Roy's teams shot a lot less 3s than HD's teams.

In general, Roy's teams rebounded a lot more of their missed shots (overall) than HD's teams, I think. That makes a difference and makes the lower 3pt % less of a deal.
 
stankeylegjones said:
In a nutshell, HD/staff are far too much running sets, in leads to stagnant offense, bad shots, bad decisions. This team is far better running freelance. On defense, the quick switching leads to few turnovers, mismatches, more difficult rebounding, etc. Overall, this team comes out not ready to play far more often than they should, as well as poor stretches.

Having said that, 13-1 is freaking 13-1, which is awesome.
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I can see your point on offense, but this is an incredible defense to watch. It is a Derrick Phelps away from being ‘93 good. And, yes, I’m aware that Phelps was UNC’s best defensive PG, so that’s still a wide gap, but this year’s Heels are really good on that end of the court.
 
CarolinaFever said:
I feel the same way. Yes, the record is great, but I think the team could be even better if they ran a different half court offense with more freelance movement that included more screens off the ball and cuts to the basket. Also not a fan of switching all the time. And I have thought this from the beginning with Hubert as the coach. It seems every other team plays the same way, though. Hubert doesn't have to do the same thing as everyone else, but I guess he feels this is the best defense and offense. I just don't agree it gives them the best possible chance to be as successful as possible, especially with the offense.
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the dude your opinion GIF
 
stankeylegjones said:
I would've thought Roy's teams shot a lot less 3s than HD's teams.

In general, Roy's teams rebounded a lot more of their missed shots (overall) than HD's teams, I think. That makes a difference and makes the lower 3pt % less of a deal.
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It’s somewhat complicated. While that’s the case on average, there’s more to it. Outside of this season, which thus far has consisted of the highest number of 3pt attempts per game of any UNC basketball team, the most attempts per game in a season was 2018-19 with 23.9 3pt attempts per game. The shot clock went from 35 seconds to 30 seconds in the 2015-16 season so naturally there were more shot attempts n general starting in 2015-16.
 
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