Biorhythms for Florida State in Chapel Hill: 7 PM Start on ESPN2

[uncjhodges]

I can see your point on offense, but this is an incredible defense to watch. It is a Derrick Phelps away from being ‘93 good. And, yes, I’m aware that Phelps was UNC’s best defensive PG, so that’s still a wide gap, but this year’s Heels are really good on that end of the court.

It’s positionally a good defense, but doesn’t force turnovers at all, and we’ve struggled recently significantly with defensive rebounding. We’re only 18th in defensive efficiency.
I think we over switch, particularly off the ball that leads to some unnecessary confusion but overall it’s a solid Defense.

I think Hubert’s done a much better job of understanding his roster and putting the players in the best position to succeed, especially compared to last year. And the Veesaar/Wilson combo is really fun to watch (which is the first time i’ve actually enjoyed watching UNC basketball since Hubert’s first year run)

 

[Peppers49]

We could definitely use better shooting. However, there's a lot of places we can find it on this team unlike last year. I'd worry a lot more if we were losing more games. I'm aware that our schedule hasn't been all that but I've seen some better UNC teams lose to teams like we played. I'm willing to be patient as long as we're doing this well.

Yeah don’t get me wrong, I like the overall construction of this team. The roster just seems to gel much better compared to last season and the most important thing is that they know how to make enough plays to win down the stretch, even if it isn’t always pretty.

Right now I would describe them as a “high floor” team because Veesaar’s and Wilson’s respective skill sets are so reliable. Just think we need one of the perimeter players to step up if we’re going to get into comfortably top 10 territory by season’s end.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Yes but you are putting almost all that difference on the coaching instead of just how good our players were, especially in contrast to the competition. As an old coach said, "It's not just the x's and o's, it's also the Jimmie's and Joes". Take the best two players off any of Hubert's teams, based on performance instead of potential, and compare them to the best two off any of Roy's. Better yet, how many point guards did Roy have that you would choose over Hubert's?

Yes, because choosing to run or not is coaching, all coaching. Lots of bad teams run, lots of bad teams don't (running more sets and orchestrated offense). It is what the coach emphasizes that the team will do. If the coach emphasizes running then the team will, if the coach doesn't then they want. As a counterexample to your insistence that running is based on talent, HD has had a couple of teams (including this one) with more talent that several of Roy's UNC teams. Those Roy teams all played at a faster pace than HD's best teams. Emphasizing running or not is not based on talent.

Now, a separate question is if that style the coach emphasizes maximizes the teams level of play or not.

Regarding talent, you can't simply compare the talent back then versus now, it's different. It's far better to compare the talent of this team to the rest of college basketball. Doing that, this team has a ton of talent. If you force me to compare this team's talent to Roy's UNC teams, then I'd say that CWilson and HV would play a lot, Seth probably would too. Others would/might get spot minutes. As far as a HD point guard, I'd love to have seen EC in Roy's system.

 

[donbosco]

In for another test of the Irrestible force meets the immovable object tomorrow...SMU averages over 90 ppg.

 

[superrific]

I'm with you Super. It is hard for a fan to make specific coaching critiques. I can criticize Hubert for not calling a TO with 37 seconds left in the first half as tactical matter (call back to strategy vs tactics debate), but claiming that Hubert would be a better coach if he ran less set plays or switched less on screens is to suggest that Hubert hasn't considered those strategies, which seems preposterous given his experience and mentoring.

Yes, I agree. And it's fair game to note that our execution out of timeouts is poor. It's the "HD is an idiot and doesn't know basketball" stuff that gets so tiring.

 

[SnoopRob]

If you can figure out how to measure that, I'd be very interested in seeing it - and very interested in hearing how you're quantifying it.

HD's teams are clearly not know for up-tempo style of play compared with Roy's teams. So, I'd argue that Roy's opponents tried to slow it down more against them. Roy's teams still averaged more possessions per game, even when the shot clock was 35 seconds, and fast-break points per game.

KenPom has a couple of stats that might get a little into what you're discussing...

First, he has our tempo at 68.0 possessions per game, which is 240th in the country.

But he also provides "Average Possession Length" (APL) for both offense and defense.

Our Offensive APL is 16.3 seconds, which is 85th in the country.

Our Defensive APL is 18.3 seconds, which is 341st in the country.

(D-1 average for each is 17.2 seconds.)

A bit of what we can take from that is that our offense isn't flying, but it's not super duper slow like Virginia's used to be. But on defense we play a style that does not emphasize steals (or even consistent pressure on the ball) and instead is committed to defending deep into each possession. That is likely what is keeping our average tempo down more than just what we're doing on offense. But the reduced tempo, created by our defensive style, does essentially create "slow" games.

 

[stankeylegjones]

KenPom has a couple of stats that might get a little into what you're discussing...

First, he has our tempo at 68.0 possessions per game, which is 240th in the country.

But he also provides "Average Possession Length" (APL) for both offense and defense.

Our Offensive APL is 16.3 seconds, which is 85th in the country.

Our Defensive APL is 18.3 seconds, which is 341st in the country.

(D-1 average for each is 17.2 seconds.)

A bit of what we can take from that is that our offense isn't flying, but it's not super duper slow like Virginia's used to be. But on defense we play a style that does not emphasize steals (or even consistent pressure on the ball) and instead is committed to defending deep into each possession. That is likely what is keeping our average tempo down more than just what we're doing on offense. But the reduced tempo, created by our defensive style, does essentially create "slow" games.

Thanks for this! It's so much easier to argue via numbers than the good ol' "eye test."

Are these two stats available for free? If not, how do they compare with some of Roy's UNC teams?

 

[Heelsandeers]

Fairly obvious before the season that this wasn't the roster that was going to lead a more uptempo style of play

Defensive APL is a good point. Having Seth back in the mix should lead to a little more tempo on both ends

 

[stankeylegjones]

Fairly obvious before the season that this wasn't the roster that was going to lead a more uptempo style of play

Defensive APL is a good point. Having Seth back in the mix should lead to a little more tempo on both ends

Why do you think this roster is suited for a more uptempo style of play? Is it just more "HD speak" when he says he wants them to play faster, rather than him thinking they'd be better off playing faster but just not implementing changes to get them playing faster?

 

[SnoopRob]

Thanks for this! It's so much easier to argue via numbers than the good ol' "eye test."

Are these two stats available for free? If not, how do they compare with some of Roy's UNC teams?

These stats are on the paid side of KP's site. Which, if you don't subscribe, at $25 per year it's a great deal.

Here's a screen cap that shows what you're asking, though. Sadly, APL only goes back to the 2010 season.

 

[Heelsandeers]

Why do you think this roster is suited for a more uptempo style of play?

I don't think it is. That's not Evan's game and I'm not sure it's Dixon's yet either

Trimble is a threat in transition and attacking his man but is only just now starting to make quick reads for others

I think they can/should up the pressure some defensively. Which would hopefully lead to more turnovers/opportunities in transition

 

[stankeylegjones]

These stats are on the paid side of KP's site. Which, if you don't subscribe, at $25 per year it's a great deal.

Here's a screen cap that shows what you're asking, though. Sadly, APL only goes back to the 2010 season.

Thank you! This is awesome, and I'm looking forward to digging in. Just a quick glance, HD's teams' offensive APL is considerably lower than Roy's teams. While the defense seems to be the opposite (slightly?).

 

[BillOfRights]

Some other notes. Carolina is:
18th in defensive efficiency
2nd in defensive eFG%
10th in opponents FTA/FGA (Carolina defends without fouling)
2nd in defensive 2FG%
11th in defensive 3FG% (remember "Carolina can't defend the 3"?)
3rd in defensive 2FGA distance.
69th in defensive R%

The only area where Carolina isn't highly ranked is forcing turnovers, but 18th in defensive efficiency is better than 7 of Coach Williams last 9 teams, and likely good enough for a deep run.

While offense gets most of the fans' attention, it's often defense that limits Carolina's ceiling, including last season. I'm encouraged by Carolina's improved defense, and this team likely goes as far as the 3FG and FT shooting takes them. I think this is a better shooting team that they have demonstrated so far, so I'm optimistic about the rest of the season.

 

[donbosco]

This is significant...

10th in opponents FTA/FGA (Carolina defends without fouling)

...but seldom discussed.