Blue Hopium ONLY info

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superrific said:
I honestly don't know how to read that, but I doubt you are reading it correctly. What you are seeing is not plausible.

I don't have time to look through all the polls, but what I just saw from the ABC/Ipsos poll was that 8-10% of their respondents said they have already voted. The poll was in the field from Oct 18-22. So it is working off much, much less data than Bonier. That makes the results not really comparable.

It does seem likely that Kamala is slightly outperforming Bonier's estimates but outside of that I'm not sure we can glean anything.
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How is he not reading it right?

He's saying that the "exit polls" of sorts show that even though there is an R lead in the D vs R vote so far, it's a much higher Kamala vote result than R vs D would indicate.
 
aGDevil2k said:
How is he not reading it right?

He's saying that the "exit polls" of sorts show that even though there is an R lead in the D vs R vote so far, it's a much higher Kamala vote result than R vs D would indicate.
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Because he's looking at two quite different data sets and trying to compare them. And there is still a sample selection bias because of unaffiliateds.
 
heelinhell said:
This election will define the quintessence of our country...

Are we still a country that is a shining city on a hill that appeals to the better angels of our nature ?
or
Are we now a country that is a dark and fearful dystopia preying upon and exploiting our ignoble instincts ?

For the sake of my children and grandchildren I hope and believe we will continue our quest to form a more perfect union.
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I feel that I ca
nycfan said:
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I Hope Please GIF
 
nycfan said:
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Someone on Pod Save America (I think) said this, but it feels like we're at that stage of the election like when Theoden was killed in the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. What the forces of Sauron didn't know was that Aragorn had led the Men of Dunharrow through the mountain and were coming up from the south. Once they arrived, it was all over.

The women of America being the amazing, beautiful, not-dead Men of Dunharrow, of course.
 
Nothing like explaining how women are going to save us by using a LOTR reference. LOL.

FYI to everyone: Dems "outperforming polls" since Dobbs is not a reason to think they will again this year. Dems have now claimed the highest propensity voters -- i.e. the people who vote in special elections, off-year elections, etc. That won't necessarily translate to the general election.

Note for hopium: I think Kamala is going to win for a number of reasons, many of which are covered on this thread. The doom and gloom on the other thread is misplaced. I just don't think the outperforming polls is a good reason. Since there are many good reasons, I don't see anything wrong with pointing this out.

Anyway I do like the confidence being projected from the campaign, and it's in stark contrast to the silence coming from the GOP.
 
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lawtig02 said:
Someone on Pod Save America (I think) said this, but it feels like we're at that stage of the election like when Theoden was killed in the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. What the forces of Sauron didn't know was that Aragorn had led the Men of Dunharrow through the mountain and were coming up from the south. Once they arrived, it was all over.

The women of America being the amazing, beautiful, not-dead Men of Dunharrow, of course.
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Unfortunately, it was the worst cgi of the entire series.
 
lawtig02 said:
Someone on Pod Save America (I think) said this, but it feels like we're at that stage of the election like when Theoden was killed in the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. What the forces of Sauron didn't know was that Aragorn had led the Men of Dunharrow through the mountain and were coming up from the south. Once they arrived, it was all over.

The women of America being the amazing, beautiful, not-dead Men of Dunharrow, of course.
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*adjusts nerd glasses on nose*

This post appears to track the film version of events with respect to the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. In The film, Aragorn, Gimli, and Legolas lead the "glowing green soap bubbles" representing the men of Dunharrow onto the field, where they proceed to devour everything in their path; a somewhat objectionable use of CGI in a film series that otherwise did a good job in that regard. In the books, of course, the men of Dunharrow never came to the Pelennor Fields; instead, they helped Aragorn fight the Corsairs of Umbar in Southern Gondor, allowing Aragorn and his small force of Dunedain to capture their fleet and then sail it up the Anduin along with a couple thousand men from Gondor's coastal provinces who had been left behind to guard against the attack from the Corsairs. After the attack on the Corsair fleet, Aragorn released the men of Dunharrow from their oath, and it was only the (live) men of Southern Gondor who joined Aragorn, Legolas, Gimli, and the Dunedain on the voyage up the Anduin to help break the siege of Minas Tirith.
 
HeelingAg said:
Unfortunately, it was the worst cgi of the entire series.
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Agree. But I've read through that scene in the book a few times now, and it's not like Tolkien gave Jackson much to work with. The whole thing is just implausible. It fits Tolkien's religious worldview though.

And in a strange way, the analogy to this time fits my religious worldview as well. I used to believe in a God who would right all wrongs. I still believe in God, but I now firmly think it's people, not a divine power, that brings justice to this world. I believe the majority of Americans still know the difference between right and wrong, and that's what will decide this election. And if he doesn't die first, Trump will eventually find out what justice really looks like.
 
rodoheel said:
*adjusts nerd glasses on nose*

This post appears to track the film version of events with respect to the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. In The film, Aragorn, Gimli, and Legolas lead the "glowing green soap bubbles" representing the men of Dunharrow onto the field, where they proceed to devour everything in their path; a somewhat objectionable use of CGI in a film series that otherwise did a good job in that regard. In the books, of course, the men of Dunharrow never came to the Pelennor Fields; instead, they helped Aragorn fight the Corsairs of Umbar in Southern Gondor, allowing Aragorn and his small force of Dunedain to capture their fleet and then sail it up the Anduin along with a couple thousand men from Gondor's coastal provinces who had been left behind to guard against the attack from the Corsairs. After the attack on the Corsair fleet, Aragorn released the men of Dunharrow from their oath, and it was only the (live) men of Southern Gondor who joined Aragorn, Legolas, Gimli, and the Dunedain on the voyage up the Anduin to help break the siege of Minas Tirith.
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Agree. And what I find implausible is that the men of South Gondor could have made much of a difference. But we're probably starting a separate thread at this point.
 
lawtig02 said:
Someone on Pod Save America (I think) said this, but it feels like we're at that stage of the election like when Theoden was killed in the Battle of the Pelennor Fields. What the forces of Sauron didn't know was that Aragorn had led the Men of Dunharrow through the mountain and were coming up from the south. Once they arrived, it was all over.

The women of America being the amazing, beautiful, not-dead Men of Dunharrow, of course.
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And in this case Sauron's side is no orcs, all trolls.
 
lawtig02 said:
Agree. And what I find implausible is that the men of South Gondor could have made much of a difference. But we're probably starting a separate thread at this point.
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I think Tolkien describes it as mostly a psychological effect for both sides - the Corsair ships approach with their sails furled, with both sides assuming the Corsairs have come to finish the job, then unfurl them to show the banner of the kingdom of Gondor. It wasn't so much the number of men, as that it gave new hope to the defenders of Minas Tirith while confusing and disorienting their enemies. Not to mention that even a small group of the Dunedain, being direct descendants of the Numenoreans (and also including the sons of Elrond), would have been quite intimidating warriors.
 
superrific said:
Nothing like explaining how women are going to save us by using a LOTR reference. LOL.

FYI to everyone: Dems "outperforming polls" since Dobbs is not a reason to think they will again this year. Dems have now claimed the highest propensity voters -- i.e. the people who vote in special elections, off-year elections, etc. That won't necessarily translate to the general election.

But I do like the confidence being projected, and it's in stark contrast to the silence coming from the GOP.
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You do realize that this is supposed to be the Hopium thread, correct? No need to rain on people's parade here.

Just to elaborate a bit more, this is where people go to not feel despondent over Trump potentially winning. People peruse the information here because they are tired of some of the negative, even if potentially true, information on the Polls thread.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
You do realize that this is supposed to be the Hopium thread, correct? No need to rain on people's parade here.

Just to elaborate a bit more, this is where people go to not feel despondent over Trump potentially winning. People peruse the information here because they are tired of some of the negative, even if potentially true, information on the Polls thread.
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All right. I edited. To be clear, I think Kamala is going to win. I don't see it as a bad thing to say, "that's not a great reason to think Kamala will win. Here are five better reasons." Anyway, I think Kamala is winning and it's not about unskewing the polls or the like.
 
superrific said:
All right. I edited. To be clear, I think Kamala is going to win. I don't see it as a bad thing to say, "that's not a great reason to think Kamala will win. Here are five better reasons." Anyway, I think Kamala is winning and it's not about unskewing the polls or the like.
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I know that you might not see it as a bad thing. You may be right, or you may be wrong. Either way, my point is that if you want to simply say "here is why I think that Harris will win, and here are five of MY reasons", that will go over well. When you shoot down any other idea, that sort of takes away from the Hopium.

I enjoy your posting and your analysis. But my suggestion would be to stick to only positive vibes on this thread and not attempt to analyze anything that could be construed as negative. My guess is that most people on this thread would feel the same way.
 
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