I couldn't be happier the way things have gone the first 100 days. I'm not wild about the the tariffs and "liberation day" but this shall soon pass as we make trade deals with our allies over the coming months allowing us to focus on China. Have trust in Bessent.
1. Have trust in Bessent? You'd never heard of the guy three months ago. You still don't know anything about him, apparently, because he's not a dealer. He's a currency trader who tried to be a hedge fund manager but mostly failed. And he has written in support of the universal tariffs. The tariffs you don't like -- those were his ideas.
2. I can promise you that there will be no trade deals of any significance. Each one takes much longer than 90 days to complete, even if the US had a clear set of goals. Which it does not.
To be clear, Trump knows that the "high tariffs are screwing" story is bullshit because countries like Canada and in Europe barely have tariffs at all. So he's pointed to non-tariff barriers? Do you know what a non-tariff barrier is? I do. I've written about them. They are not nefarious. The US has tons of them. They are usually not created as trade barriers; usually (like the EU's GMO laws) they are public initiatives that have trade implications. Traditionally, when other countries complain about US non-trade barriers, the right wing blows a gasket because they think it interferes with American sovereignty. As with everything, you've changed your tune completely.
When you can demonstrate a basic knowledge of trade law, we can have a conversation but as of now, I'd get further with my son. Trade economics would also be helpful (for instance, understanding the relationship between a country's current and capital accounts).
3. In the coming months? Shelves are going to start emptying if Trump doesn't cancel the tariffs. You're really going to keep supporting Trump if you go to Wal Mart over Memorial Day weekend and the shelves are half empty because of the trade war? Seriously?
Trump seems to think that China is going to cave. They won't. It's like a soccer game in which one team is kicking the ball in the wrong direction. Do you think the other team is going to tell them, "um, you're supposed to go this way"? No, they will fucking let their opponents keep scoring own goals.
Trump is the best thing to happen to China in a while. Their economy was sputtering. Their demographics looked bad. But now they've roared back to life. China, not the US, is currently the most powerful country in the world because Trump has weakened the US so badly. Trump is leading the world into a Chinese dominated century.
You don't have to believe me -- the Chinese (and Russians) are gleefully saying it themselves. Every economist or foreign policy specialist anywhere (other than the current administration where people are afraid) says that Trump has opened so many doors for China and greatly eroded