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Economic News

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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nycfan said:
The article he links basically argues that the MSM is mean to Trump, their drumbeat of negativity is the problem driving down consumer sentiment, not Trump’s glorious policies and people need to chill and let Trump remake the economy how he sees fit because sure, maybe there will be some pain but that is the cost of weening us off over-reliance on government spending on stupid stuff. Sure, no one will bat 1.000 but just relax and let Trump do what he thinks is best and ignore the media panic.
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We were talking to a snowbirding neighbor who just got back from Florida. They said the Americans they were talking to had no idea that there was large scale Canadian resentment (they were wondering why it was so less crowded than previous years) and couldn't figure out why the stock market was doing poorly. It seems the Fox News bubble is largely ignoring the causes of the economic downturn.
 
altmin said:
We were talking to a snowbirding neighbor who just got back from Florida. They said the Americans they were talking to had no idea that there was large scale Canadian resentment (they were wondering why it was so less crowded than previous years) and couldn't figure out why the stock market was doing poorly. It seems the Fox News bubble is largely ignoring the causes of the economic downturn.
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It is still all Biden’s fault over on Fox and Trump is just joking with Canada, no biggie, but Canadian liberals have TDS and no sense of humor.
 
Housing starts data better than forecast:





A mixed bag but not indicative of widespread recessionary pressures.
 
Big money in the stock market is in complete denial about the path the Trump economy is on. The 10% correction in S&P and Dow (15% or more I believe on the NASDAQ) is barely the beginning. I also think Trump loyalists are standing pat on investments in support of Trump.

A 10% correction is nothing. We average about one of those at least once per year, even in very good years for the markets. The coming Trump economy is NOT already priced into the market.

See the non-political non-biased readings and forecasts by a recent survey of The Fed members and analysts.

By the way, even Warren Buffet is very cautious right now (the best ever) and he teaches buy and hold. Fix News and the Trump Admin is spewing garbage, though they keep throwing out pre-manufactured excuses like "detox period" "re-balancing economy" "short term volotilty for longer term prosperity" yada yada yada. My favorite is meathead coach from Alabamer, "no pain, no gain."

Of course, all that spin presupposes that these tariffs help in the long run, and these massive Federal cuts are well thought out through cost benefit analysis. I've never seen a chainsaw in all my years of studying cost-benefit analysis in Econ. studies.

 
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finesse said:
Be my guess. If you've been planning it, getting it out of the ground this spring is the thing. See where things are late summer.
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Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
 
superrific said:
Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
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Long retired and out of touch. Still, I doubt if the time that's best for foundation and masonry work has changed or the generally best work weather. Old and quite possibly outdated experience says homebuilding, especially spec stuff, will take an early hit.
 
nycfan said:
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Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
 
nycfan said:

Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
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Trump is an idiot. He just is.
 
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
 
superrific said:
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
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Here is my prediction. The April 2 tariffs won't be as advertised. At least not for very long.
 
Calheel said:
Here is my prediction. The April 2 tariffs won't be as advertised. At least not for very long.
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While I agree with you as a matter of experience, the reporting has been that they are putting a huge amount of effort into them. The Canada things were always slipshod. This one seems more real, though obviously it's hard to conclude much about the king of chaos.

And there will be no way to walk it back with, "oh, we got some concession about this" when literally the tariffs are against the whole world.
 
Curious to see what, if any, rate cuts occur this year. We just quoted rates between 6.35%-7.50% for 30-year fixed and 7-year ARMs, and those are with 800+ credit scores. Would love to see those rates come down a little bit before I pull the trigger but it may not happen. The only reason I'm not more distraught about giving up my current 3.15% 30-year fixed is because I can't wait to GTFO of Alabama and back home to NC.
 
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