Economic News | Fed extends wait & see posture on interest rates

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Be my guess. If you've been planning it, getting it out of the ground this spring is the thing. See where things are late summer.
Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
 
Are you still in the business or retired? I mean, just curious. Either way, you know way more about it than I do. You're my source for on-the-ground reporting from the world of homebuilding.
Long retired and out of touch. Still, I doubt if the time that's best for foundation and masonry work has changed or the generally best work weather. Old and quite possibly outdated experience says homebuilding, especially spec stuff, will take an early hit.
 

Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
 

Officials say they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%​

“…
New economic projections showed 11 of 19 policymakers expect the Fed to cut rates at least twice this year, a narrower majority than the 15 officials who had penciled in at least two cuts in December.

Officials indicated they expected inflation to rise this year to 2.7%, up from 2.5% in January. The revision likely reflected increases on tariffs announced by President Trump and showed officials expect inflation to ultimately slow in 2026 and 2027.

Fed officials also said they expect GDP growth of 1.7% in 2025, down from their December projections of 2.1%.

Officials marked up their forecasts of unemployment and lowered their forecasts for economic growth. In their policy statement, they said uncertainty around the economic outlook had increased.

They removed language that had previously described the risks to achieving low and stable inflation with strong employment as “roughly in balance.” …”
Trump is an idiot. He just is.
 
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
 
I expect GDP growth to be substantially less than 1.7%. If the April 2 tariffs are as advertised, it will be a miracle not to have negative growth for the year.
Here is my prediction. The April 2 tariffs won't be as advertised. At least not for very long.
 
Here is my prediction. The April 2 tariffs won't be as advertised. At least not for very long.
While I agree with you as a matter of experience, the reporting has been that they are putting a huge amount of effort into them. The Canada things were always slipshod. This one seems more real, though obviously it's hard to conclude much about the king of chaos.

And there will be no way to walk it back with, "oh, we got some concession about this" when literally the tariffs are against the whole world.
 
Curious to see what, if any, rate cuts occur this year. We just quoted rates between 6.35%-7.50% for 30-year fixed and 7-year ARMs, and those are with 800+ credit scores. Would love to see those rates come down a little bit before I pull the trigger but it may not happen. The only reason I'm not more distraught about giving up my current 3.15% 30-year fixed is because I can't wait to GTFO of Alabama and back home to NC.
 

Target just reported fourth quarter net sales declined 3% and warned that February topline performance was “soft,” after civil rights leaders called for a Target boycott in Black History Month for changing its position on DEI, followed by a sharp drop in traffic to Target stores and website during the Feb. 28 Economic Blackout.

...

Experts generally agree grassroots consumer boycotts do not have a significant effect on a company’s results. However, this time Target may be particularly at risk. Boycott calls are coming from many different groups, including faith and civil rights leaders, and the People’s Union, which is spreading its protests widely across many big businesses. Professor Brayden King at Northwestern University’s Kellogg School of Management shared with USA Today that more than affecting consumer purchase behavior, boycotts put a “negative spotlight” on the company that can have “reputational consequences.” Consumer trust is a critical factor in where they choose to shop and a retailer’s reputation measures that.

Target’s Reputation Plunges This Year​

Target has historically trended as a “reputationally strong” company, according to reputation tracking firm RepTrak. However, its reputation took a steep downward turn early this year, dropping from 73.8 on a 100-point scale in December to 66.3 in January, coinciding with the company scaling back its DEI initiatives which set off the first boycott call.

History Repeat Itself?​

Target experienced its steepest reputational decline in 2023 after its Pride Month displays resulted in a consumer backlash and boycotts. It had a reputation high score of 76.9 in April that year, then plunged to a low of 60.9 in December 23. In fiscal 2023, Target revenues declined 2%.

What We Don’t Know​

Target full-year 2024 revenues declined 1%, dropping to $106.6 billion from $107.4 billion previous year. For fiscal 2025, it is guiding on flat comparable sales with expectations of net sales growth around 1%, reflecting ongoing consumer and tariff “uncertainty.” The company fielded no analyst questions about boycott pressures, but on the subject of tariffs, it reassured investors that it has been “very proactive” on this issue to diversify its country of origin suppliers. While we must wait for any fallout from the gathering storm of consumer boycotts till next quarter earnings, the company credited soft February sales on declining consumer confidence and “uncharacteristically cold weather” across the U.S.
 

United States arms-makers are being frozen out of the European Union’s massive new defense spending plan, which aims to splash the cash for EU and allied countries, according to defense spending plans released Wednesday.

Also left out — for now — is the United Kingdom.

“We must buy more European. Because that means strengthening the European defense technological and industrial base,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in announcing the Readiness 2030 program.
In a bid to strengthen ties with allies, Brussels involved countries like South Korea and Japan and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in its program that could see as much as €800 billion spent on defense.

“We need to see not only Russia as a threat, but also ... more global geopolitical developments and where Americans will put their strategic attention,” European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius told reporters.

In recent years, about two-thirds of EU procurement orders have gone to U.S. defense companies.
 
The GOP is the recession party...

Clinton came in to clean up the Poppy Bush recession
Obama came in to clean up the GWB great recession
Biden came in to clean up the Trump pandemic recession

If past is prologue it looks like there will be yet another GOP recession. The only question is whether there will be an opportunity for another Dem administration to clean up the next recession.
 

United States arms-makers are being frozen out of the European Union’s massive new defense spending plan, which aims to splash the cash for EU and allied countries, according to defense spending plans released Wednesday.

Also left out — for now — is the United Kingdom.

“We must buy more European. Because that means strengthening the European defense technological and industrial base,” said Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in announcing the Readiness 2030 program.
In a bid to strengthen ties with allies, Brussels involved countries like South Korea and Japan and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) in its program that could see as much as €800 billion spent on defense.

“We need to see not only Russia as a threat, but also ... more global geopolitical developments and where Americans will put their strategic attention,” European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius told reporters.

In recent years, about two-thirds of EU procurement orders have gone to U.S. defense companies.
As Europe rebuilds its domestic defense industries, a few things likely happen:
  • US sales to European nations decrease
  • US sales to “European-affiliated” nations (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, etc.) decrease
  • US sales decrease worldwide
  • European defense industries increase their supplying to the worldwide arms trade; that’ll decrease U.S. sales AND likely worsen civil wars and/or cross-border wars in Africa and Asia and the Middle East as more vendors vie to sell weapons/ammunition to nations and warlords
 
As Europe rebuilds its domestic defense industries, a few things likely happen:
  • US sales to European nations decrease
  • US sales to “European-affiliated” nations (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, etc.) decrease
  • US sales decrease worldwide
  • European defense industries increase their supplying to the worldwide arms trade; that’ll decrease U.S. sales AND likely worsen civil wars and/or cross-border wars in Africa and Asia and the Middle East as more vendors vie to sell weapons/ammunition to nations and warlords
It also grossly ups the chance of a worldwide conflagration merely by nature of fewer points of cooperation, and proliferation of manufacturing capable of producing mass casualty devices.
 
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“…A poll of more than 220 U.S. CEOs finds business confidence at lowest level since November 2012—and recession fears on the rise.

After a double-digit surge in optimism in the months following the November presidential election, confidence among America’s business community fell sharply the first week of March, according to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index, fielded March 4 and 5.

CEOs’ rating of current business conditions in the U.S. fell 20 percent from January, from 6.3 to 5 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. This is the lowest level since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic shut down businesses around the world.

CEOs’ forecast for what those conditions will look like 12 months from now fell by an even greater margin—28 percent—from 7/10 in January to 5/10 in March. The last time CEOs’ outlook hit that low was November 2012. …”
 
IMG_5794.jpeg


“…A poll of more than 220 U.S. CEOs finds business confidence at lowest level since November 2012—and recession fears on the rise.

After a double-digit surge in optimism in the months following the November presidential election, confidence among America’s business community fell sharply the first week of March, according to Chief Executive’s latest CEO Confidence Index, fielded March 4 and 5.

CEOs’ rating of current business conditions in the U.S. fell 20 percent from January, from 6.3 to 5 out of 10, on a scale where 1 is Poor and 10 is Excellent. This is the lowest level since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic shut down businesses around the world.

CEOs’ forecast for what those conditions will look like 12 months from now fell by an even greater margin—28 percent—from 7/10 in January to 5/10 in March. The last time CEOs’ outlook hit that low was November 2012. …”
Too bad the CEOs all gave Orangeturd money
 
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