Economic News Thread | Consumer Confidence declines

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Mulberry Heel said:
You may well be right, although I do think that cutting federal funding is going to hurt a lot of liberal researchers, doctors, scientists, and the like, and I think MAGA Nation isn't going to stop using the government to go after liberals in various professions. I do think you're absolutely right that Trump's base - especially the non-college educated, rural ones - are going to likely suffer the most. Trump doesn't care about them beyond their votes, he's often expressed contempt for them in private conversations that were later leaked, and if they struggle he's just going to shrug as long as they stick with him.
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Because no matter how bad off they are, at least they're white, straight and "Christian."
 

US employers cut more jobs last month than any February since 2009​



“… US-based employers last month announced plans to slash 172,017 jobs, a 103% increase from January and the highest February total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s latest monthly job cuts report released Thursday.

… It’s the 12th highest monthly total in the 32 years Challenger has been tracking job cuts. The 11 others (four came during the Covid-19 pandemic) all occurred when the US was in a recession, Challenger data shows.

The largest share of job cut announcements came in the government sector, where the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency has axed jobs, slashed federal spending and scrapped contracts.

By Challenger’s count, there were 62,242 announced cuts across 17 federal agencies. That’s a 41,311% increase from the 151 cuts announced through February 2024, Challenger noted.

The DOGE effect was not limited to the public sector: Downstream impacts, such as the loss of funding for private nonprofits, led to another 894 cuts, according to the report.

… Outside of the government, the next largest cuts were in retail (38,956), technology (14,554) and consumer products (10,625).

Thursday’s report is “something to be concerned about,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, noting that the government cuts accounted for one-third of the overall announced layoffs. …”
 

Treasury Yields Take a Blow from ADP Jobs Report​


Treasury Yields Take a Blow from ADP Jobs Report

The 10-year Treasury yield pared gains, pressured by weaker-than-expected U.S. private employment numbers.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

“… Weaker-than-expected U.S. private employment numbers add downward pressure on Treasury yields. ADP says employers added 77,000 jobs last month, compared to consensus forecast of 148,000 in a Wall Street Journal survey.

January figure was revised to 186,000 from 183,000. Annual pay was up 4.7% from a year earlier. Small business shed 12,000 jobs. February national payrolls are due Friday. Yields have been trending lower amid signs of economic cooling. Tariffs have added to the risk-off wave. …”
 
nycfan said:

US employers cut more jobs last month than any February since 2009​



“… US-based employers last month announced plans to slash 172,017 jobs, a 103% increase from January and the highest February total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s latest monthly job cuts report released Thursday.

… It’s the 12th highest monthly total in the 32 years Challenger has been tracking job cuts. The 11 others (four came during the Covid-19 pandemic) all occurred when the US was in a recession, Challenger data shows.

The largest share of job cut announcements came in the government sector, where the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency has axed jobs, slashed federal spending and scrapped contracts.

By Challenger’s count, there were 62,242 announced cuts across 17 federal agencies. That’s a 41,311% increase from the 151 cuts announced through February 2024, Challenger noted.

The DOGE effect was not limited to the public sector: Downstream impacts, such as the loss of funding for private nonprofits, led to another 894 cuts, according to the report.

… Outside of the government, the next largest cuts were in retail (38,956), technology (14,554) and consumer products (10,625).

Thursday’s report is “something to be concerned about,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, noting that the government cuts accounted for one-third of the overall announced layoffs. …”
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I’m sure all those people who lost their jobs are so thankful that that that one transgendered athlete isn’t able to play in the volleyball rec league any longer.
 
ChileG said:
I’m sure all those people who lost their jobs are so thankful that that that one transgendered athlete isn’t able to play in the volleyball rec league any longer.
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What is more important ? Your job or the safety of your darling volleyball player-the one your wife carried for 9 mths, baptized in the name of white jesus
 
mpaer said:
What is more important ? Your job or the safety of your darling volleyball player-the one your wife carried for 9 mths, baptized in the name of white jesus
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For me, the job and economy, which is why I would never, ever vote for Trump. But apparently it isn’t so with a large portion of the voters in this country.
 
nycfan said:


This should soothe the markets a bit, maybe?
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“… The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent, from 4 percent.

  • Is DOGE playing a role? The jobs report was based on surveys conducted in the second week of February, so economists say the administration’s mass firings, buyouts and hiring freezes at federal agencies may not fully surface in the monthly data until sometime this spring.
  • What about tariffs? A similar wait is in store for those hoping to ascertain the effects that President Trump’s tariffs — both those imposed and those still threatened — may have on global trading partners, business investment and employment.
  • Zooming out: Even without the shake-up in foreign trade and federal employment, private-sector hiring has slowed substantially from the blowout pace of 2021 to 2023. That has left labor market analysts and financial commentators gearing up for a potential cooling in economic growth this year.
  • Context: For now, unemployment continues to glide just above record lows. And gains in average hourly earnings for workers have kept up a solid pace, overtaking inflation since mid-2023. …”
 
Unemployment up to 4.1 vs 4.0%. Non farm payrolls increase 151K vs 170K est. Jan non farm payrolls adjusted down by about 20K.

So poorer results showing but not bulk of it yet. DOGE cuts not in yet. Companies slowing hiring not in yet on tariff chaos. Will see more of these in Mar and Apr.
 
nycfan said:
“… The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent, from 4 percent.

  • Is DOGE playing a role? The jobs report was based on surveys conducted in the second week of February, so economists say the administration’s mass firings, buyouts and hiring freezes at federal agencies may not fully surface in the monthly data until sometime this spring.
  • What about tariffs? A similar wait is in store for those hoping to ascertain the effects that President Trump’s tariffs — both those imposed and those still threatened — may have on global trading partners, business investment and employment.
  • Zooming out: Even without the shake-up in foreign trade and federal employment, private-sector hiring has slowed substantially from the blowout pace of 2021 to 2023. That has left labor market analysts and financial commentators gearing up for a potential cooling in economic growth this year.
  • Context: For now, unemployment continues to glide just above record lows. And gains in average hourly earnings for workers have kept up a solid pace, overtaking inflation since mid-2023. …”
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nycfan said:
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1) I had no idea who Maria Bartiromo was a week ago, but she is rapidly becoming the most entertaining part of the Foxnews clips that you all keep insisting on posting here and I keep watching, for some ungodly reason.

She feels very much like a female version of Bobby Moynihan's SNL Weekend Update character, drunk uncle. And I'm here for it.

 
nycfan said:
“… The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent, from 4 percent.

  • Is DOGE playing a role? The jobs report was based on surveys conducted in the second week of February, so economists say the administration’s mass firings, buyouts and hiring freezes at federal agencies may not fully surface in the monthly data until sometime this spring.
  • What about tariffs? A similar wait is in store for those hoping to ascertain the effects that President Trump’s tariffs — both those imposed and those still threatened — may have on global trading partners, business investment and employment.
  • Zooming out: Even without the shake-up in foreign trade and federal employment, private-sector hiring has slowed substantially from the blowout pace of 2021 to 2023. That has left labor market analysts and financial commentators gearing up for a potential cooling in economic growth this year.
  • Context: For now, unemployment continues to glide just above record lows. And gains in average hourly earnings for workers have kept up a solid pace, overtaking inflation since mid-2023. …”
Click to expand...
 
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