Economic News

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nycfan said:
"...Still, the labor market remains strong, and economists say it could take weeks or months before government-related job losses show up in national data. At 4. 1 percent, unemployment is low, and there are more open positions than people looking for work.

New figures Friday are expected to show that job growth continued in January, with employers adding an estimated 165,000 new positions. [NOTE -- actually, it was below that, but unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%]

Even so, economists say the new president’s funding cuts, tariff threats and deportations could quickly change the economic picture. The Trump administration has taken dramatic steps to shrink the federal workforce by making it easier to fire employees, putting nearly 10,000 USAID employees on leave and offering buyouts to millions of federal workers. ..."
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When unemployment does climb to 6 or 7%, Trump supporters will celebrate it as proof of getting rid of dead federal weight and waste. It won't change their outlook in the slightest.
 
wmheel1287 said:
When unemployment does climb to 6 or 7%, Trump supporters will celebrate it as proof of getting rid of dead federal weight and waste. It won't change their outlook in the slightest.
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Probably true, but from the WaPo article, the collateral impact on private employment could really impact everyone (which I know you know, just noting for the record):

"...The D.C. region, which relies on the federal government for 40 percent of its economy, is likely to face the biggest hit from government-related job losses.

But the rest of the country isn’t immune: Every five federal government jobs that are lost typically wipe away an additional two jobs nationwide, according to Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

“There are real spillover effects here,” he said. “If a scientist working at a university lab loses their funding, they’ve lost their job, they’ve lost their household spending, and that affects other jobs across the economy.” ..."
 


“…
Consumer sentiment fell about 5% in the University of Michigan’s preliminary February survey of consumers to its lowest reading since July 2024. Expectations of inflation in the year ahead jumped from 3.3% in January to 4.3%, the second month in a row of large increases and highest reading since November 2023.

“It’s very rare to see a full percentage point jump in inflation expectations,” said Joanne Hsu, who oversees the survey. Republicans have come off a postelection surge in confidence, she said, and Democrats and Independents also seem to believe that economic conditions have deteriorated since last month.

Morning Consult’s recent index of consumer confidence, too, fell between Jan. 25 and Feb. 3, driven primarily by concern over the country’s economic future.

“I don’t like the turbulence. I don’t like the chaos in the market,” said Paul Bisson, a 58-year-old, who writes proposals for a flight safety company and co-owns a dog daycare in San Antonio. Bisson voted for Trump, but feels “his policies have led to that chaos.” …”
 
nycfan said:
Probably true, but from the WaPo article, the collateral impact on private employment could really impact everyone (which I know you know, just noting for the record):

"...The D.C. region, which relies on the federal government for 40 percent of its economy, is likely to face the biggest hit from government-related job losses.

But the rest of the country isn’t immune: Every five federal government jobs that are lost typically wipe away an additional two jobs nationwide, according to Terry Clower, director of the Center for Regional Analysis at George Mason University.

“There are real spillover effects here,” he said. “If a scientist working at a university lab loses their funding, they’ve lost their job, they’ve lost their household spending, and that affects other jobs across the economy.” ..."
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Alaska will get destroyed with massive federal job cuts.
 
Fire as many federal employees as Elon Musk and Project 2025 want to fire and you’re looking at an economic DEPRESSION and China’s ascension - even when it should be cratering from its “one child, one son” policy.
 
nycfan said:

Bond yields steady ahead of looming Powell testimony, CPI data​

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This is what should happen. Trump has been telling everyone what he is planning to do, so that information should have been baked into asset prices long ago. Indeed, it's why interest rates started increasing in September, when Trump really started talking crazy about tariffs.
 


Inflation remained stubbornly high in January, new data expected to show​

Economists expect prices rose by 2.9 percent annually last month, the same gain reported in December.
 
nycfan said:


Inflation remained stubbornly high in January, new data expected to show​

Economists expect prices rose by 2.9 percent annually last month, the same gain reported in December.
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I remember back in the day when 3% inflation was the norm and no big deal, but now 2.9% is considered "stubbornly high "

It will be interesting to see if the Trump election has had an anticipatory impact and nudged the inflation rate a bit higher than 2.9%
 
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