Economic News

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nycfan said:

Bond yields steady ahead of looming Powell testimony, CPI data​

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This is what should happen. Trump has been telling everyone what he is planning to do, so that information should have been baked into asset prices long ago. Indeed, it's why interest rates started increasing in September, when Trump really started talking crazy about tariffs.
 


Inflation remained stubbornly high in January, new data expected to show​

Economists expect prices rose by 2.9 percent annually last month, the same gain reported in December.
 
nycfan said:


Inflation remained stubbornly high in January, new data expected to show​

Economists expect prices rose by 2.9 percent annually last month, the same gain reported in December.
Click to expand...

I remember back in the day when 3% inflation was the norm and no big deal, but now 2.9% is considered "stubbornly high "

It will be interesting to see if the Trump election has had an anticipatory impact and nudged the inflation rate a bit higher than 2.9%
 
Such an easy layup for Democrats. Flood the zone with the talking point that the threat of Trump tariffs caused inflation to come back because business stocked up and drove prices up. The media will then start asking Trump about it. Pin the tail on that orange elephant.
 
From CreditSights / LevFin Insights newsletter:

cpi chart.jpg

"...
  • Headline CPI beat consensus expectations by two-tenths with a 0.5% MoM increase. That pushed the 3m annualized rate to 4.7%, the fastest pace since November 2022 when the YoY rate of headline CPI was 7.1%. Both Food and Energy prices accelerated contributing to the upside surprise.
  • Core CPI rose 0.4% MoM, besting consensus expectations by one-tenth. Core services rose 0.5% MoM, the fastest pace since March 2024, while core goods rose 0.3% MoM, the fastest pace since 2023. A sustained reversal in the core goods deflation we saw throughout 2024 will present a renewed challenge for the Fed, while key services components continue to prove sticky.
  • We expect monetary policy expectations to start to reflect two-sided risk (either a hike or cut next) and this, among other factors, will begin to push credit spreads wider. The upside surprise to January 2024 CPI reported last February led to 6 bp of IG and 1 bp of HY spread tightening over the next week. Last year's moves at this time are counter intuitive, but are indicative of less overall policy uncertainty, a strong US economy and greater conviction that the next monetary policy move will be a cut, not a hike. While the US economy remains solid, fiscal policy uncertainty has reached a fever pitch, and we expect the market to begin pricing in a meaningful probability that the Fed will hike...."
 
CFordUNC said:
Wow. The Trump inflation

Ugh. I know, I know. It’s a terrible addiction and hard to break!
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It’s really not. Spend 20 minutes on a flight or layover deleting your account and following a similar core of 40-50 accounts on Bluesky. You’ll gradually build up the same information diet and followings without the christonationalism and Nazi adjacent posts musk forces into your feed.

Within a handful of days, I suspect you won’t think a thing of Twitter, outside of breaking the reflexive habit of clicking the app or shortcut.
 
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