Economic News

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It's official. Trump is horrible for the US Economy. -0.3% for the quarter:

apnews.com

U.S. economy shrinks 0.3% in first quarter as Trump trade wars disrupt businesses

The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% from January through March, first drop in three years. It was slowed by a surge in imports as companies in the United States tried to bring in foreign goods before President Donald Trump imposed massive tariffs.
apnews.com apnews.com

And it's going to get worse as shelves start to empty and Trump plays whack-a-mole with rising product prices. A stagflated recession will be a fact by July 1.
 
superrific said:
1. The fact that January is in this report only means it's not as bad as it would otherwise have been. Biden dragging it down, LOL.

2. You could even say the next quarter is some of Biden. Cool. We know what's coming and so does Trump.
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Gas prices were $2.29 in Texas and grocery prices were lower on January 19th than the end of the month. Jobs and investment were only cut when the US Economy, the envy of the world, had to hedge on all bets because of the Trump Tariff Insanity. Just ask the CEOs, and not the Billionaire Bros, although they know the truth.

Gas prices here are $2.55/ga,l although oil futures are about the same, just a tad lower. Business have to take profits this quarter because they don't know WTH will happen in Qs 2, 3, 4.

I bought our new CR-V Hybrid for $32.5K in November. They are $36,500 today.
 

GM Expects Tariffs to Cost Up to $5 Billion in 2025, Slashes Outlook​

Automaker projects profit of between $8.2 billion and $10.1 billion for full year​



——

McDonald’s U.S. Sales Decline in Shaky Economy​

Fast-food giant’s patrons are ‘grappling with uncertainty’ as spending slows at several restaurant chains​


 


Another data point with a weird hitch in its giddy up — this uptick apparently is driven by a seasonal jump in unemployment claims in NY associated with the Passover/Easter holidays.
 
Weekly initial jobless claims come in higher than expected, 241K versus 225K.

Ongoing unemployment claims are now just over 1.9 Million, the highest since late 2021.
 
nycfan said:


Strong report, well ahead of estimates.
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somewhat comforting that the Biden economy is holding on in the face of Trump's threats and posturing...

So Trump has not sunk the Biden economy in his 1st 100 days, but what will the economy look like 100 days from now ?

time will tell...
 
nycfan said:


Strong report, well ahead of estimates.
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“… The jobs number was less than the 185,000 jobs added in March. The job gains for February and March were revised down by a combined 58,000 jobs.

Federal-government layoffs were a drag on payrolls. Federal government employment declined by 9,000 in April. …”

IMG_6814.jpeg
 
heelinhell said:
somewhat comforting that the Biden economy is holding on in the face of Trump's threats and posturing...

So Trump has not sunk the Biden economy in his 1st 100 days, but what will the economy look like 100 days from now ?

time will tell...
Click to expand...
It is another case of the data not reflecting a lot of the more cautious business chatter and doomsaying so far. Overall, April data indicates that businesses definitely have taken defensive measures (building inventory to avoid tariffs, accelerating investments in equipment and co structuring ahead of tariffs, etc) that are warping some of the data but people have not yet slammed on the breaks. The general behavior reflected in the data to date suggests to a deep-seated expectation that the Trump Administration eventually will (mostly) back down and offset the negative impact of trade policy with steep tax cuts and regulatory relief.

The question is going to be if/when “expect Trump to back down but plan ahead for some period of tariff disruptions” turns into significant cuts and down-sizing. There has been significant anecdotal evidence of businesses pulling back but it just isn’t showing up in the data. There is more data of some weakening consumer spending in some sectors, but overall that remains pretty robust to date as well.

A lot of the reduction in government payrolls have yet to show up so far, as well — that has to filter through the data by the end of the summer when the buyouts become effective, I would think, but so far we have only seen a tiny fraction of the announced numbers showing jobs data.

The Fed should be happy b/c this data does not increase pressure to lower interest rates.
 
Right on cue

IMG_6815.jpeg

Where is gas under $1.98? It just increased locally to $2.99 …

Also, groceries have continued to be subject to inflation, though not nearly as high as a few years ago, while egg prices have been decreasing and availability has stabilized…
 
nycfan said:
Right on cue

IMG_6815.jpeg

Where is gas under $1.98? It just increased locally to $2.99 …

Also, groceries have continued to be subject to inflation, though not nearly as high as a few years ago, while egg prices have been decreasing and availability has stabilized…
Click to expand...
Average gasoline prices in North Carolina have risen 5.9 cents per gallon in the last week, averaging $2.88 per gallon Monday, April 29, 2025, according to GasBuddy’s survey of 6,092 stations in North Carolina.

The national average price of gasoline is unchanged in the last week, averaging $3.10 per gallon Monday.
 
nycfan said:


“… In my case I had the biggest stock market increase, 88% in the last term, in my last term … I don’t take credit or discredit for the stock market … what the stock market tells you, at least in this case, it says how bad a situation we inherited …”
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88% market growth in 4 years???????
 
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