Economic News

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 2K
  • Views: 127K
  • Politics 


Markets are buying the data, though. They could be right. Still haven’t fully recovered from the Liberation Day shock, but certainly focusing on positive news in the news mix for now. Which gives Trump and his team a window over the next 2-6 (?) weeks to fix it before the pre-tariff planning/hoarding is replaced by post-tariff impacts in the reports.

Putting a 📌 in current state of play to look back at where we find ourselves by Memorial Day and mid-June …

IMG_6648.jpeg
IMG_6649.jpeg
 

U.S. Economy Contracts at 0.3% Rate in First Quarter​

The reading fell short of the 0.4% growth that economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected​


🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q1-2025-1f82f689?st=8vFEqZ&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That was the steepest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

… The U.S. economy entered the year on a strong footing: It grew at a steady pace in 2024 and inflation continued to ease. The unemployment rate held at 4.1% and employers added 456,000 new jobs in the first quarter, down from 628,000 in the final quarter of 2024.

… Fears of tariff-induced price increases prompted some consumers to accelerate purchases to get ahead of increased costs. Vehicle sales, for example, jumped in March.

But even that isn’t necessarily good news for sellers.

“Those who can are buying ahead of tariffs, that means you’re borrowing demand from the future,” said KPMG’s chief economist Diane Swonk. Such “panic purchases” also suppress growth, she noted: Imports count as a subtraction when GDP is calculated….”
 


“… But the first quarter figure was misleading, the result of quirks in the way government data measured the surge in imports as businesses and consumers raced to get ahead of expected tariffs.

More reliable data on consumer spending and business investment suggested that growth slowed in the first quarter but remained fundamentally solid. …


IMG_6787.jpeg
 
nycfan said:


“… But the first quarter figure was misleading, the result of quirks in the way government data measured the surge in imports as businesses and consumers raced to get ahead of expected tariffs.

More reliable data on consumer spending and business investment suggested that growth slowed in the first quarter but remained fundamentally solid. …


IMG_6787.jpeg
Click to expand...

“… Beyond such quirks in the data, however, economists said the larger takeaway from the latest data is clear: Consumers and businesses began changing their behavior in response to Mr. Trump’s policies even before the April 2 tariff announcement that sent financial markets into a tailspin. The full effect of those policies won’t become clear for months, but economists warn that the damage could be substantial, especially if Mr. Trump continues to change his approach on a nearly daily basis as he has over the past month.

The U.S. economy has proved remarkably resilient in recent years, repeatedly defying predictions of a recession. Economists said there are still pockets of strength that could help it withstand the strains being put on it by Mr. Trump’s policies. But growth was slowing even before this year, leaving less of a cushion. …”
 
nycfan said:


“… But the first quarter figure was misleading, the result of quirks in the way government data measured the surge in imports as businesses and consumers raced to get ahead of expected tariffs.

More reliable data on consumer spending and business investment suggested that growth slowed in the first quarter but remained fundamentally solid. …


IMG_6787.jpeg
Click to expand...

I keep reading talks about the imports impacting GDP but that is not how it works. Imports are subtracted from GDP only to offset its effect on consumption and investment (including increases in inventory).

www.stlouisfed.org

How Do Imports Affect GDP?

The current textbook treatment of how international trade is measured as part of GDP can lead people to misunderstand the role trade plays in the economy.
www.stlouisfed.org www.stlouisfed.org
 
heelinhell said:
Thanks Biden:mad:

www.rawstory.com

'This is Biden’s Stock Market': Trump flips out over new 'worst quarter' economic report

President Donald Trump took to Truth Social complaining about the latest economic report on Wednesday Morning. “This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s," the President said. ALSO READ: 'Dictatorship, not a town hall': Families 'distraught' as MTG disruptors tased and jailed “I didn’t...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com
Click to expand...
Just to break this down a bit for Ram and Silence --

"Tariffs will soon start kicking in" -- THIS IS THE FIRST PROBLEM

"and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers." -- LIE #1

"Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden ‘Overhang.’” -- LIE #2

“This will take a while" -- THIS IS THE SECOND PROBLEM

"has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS" -- LIE #3

"only that he left us with bad numbers" -- LIE #4

"but when the boom begins, it will be like no other” -- ASSUMING BY 'BOOM' HE MEANS THE COMPLETE IMPLOSION OF OUR ECONOMY, THIS IS THE THIRD PROBLEM
 
We are so about to reap the whirlwind. This is quickly moving beyond smug thoughts of FAFO. We are all going to suffer, and it's going to take years to reverse.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top