Economic News

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altmin said:

Chevron will slash up to 20% of its workforce as the oil major implements a plan to cut costs by up to $3 billion, the company said Wednesday.

The workforce reductions will begin this year with most of the cuts complete before the end of 2026, according to Chevron.




″We do not take these actions lightly and will support our employees through the transition,” Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said in a statement. “But responsible leadership requires taking these steps to improve the long-term competitiveness of our company for our people, our shareholders and our communities.”
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Bluesky

bsky.app bsky.app
 
nycfan said:

Veteran of U.S. Credit Downgrade Hears Alarm Bells Today​

A former S&P executive shares views of U.S. creditworthiness under Trump​



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To be honest, I couldn't give two fucks about credit rating agencies' estimates of sovereign debt. They don't know anything that other credit analysts don't know, which is why the market reacted not at all when one of them downgraded the debt a few years ago.
 


“… “A majority of participants observed that the current high degree of uncertainty made it appropriate for the committee to take a careful approach in considering additional adjustments to the stance of monetary policy,” said the minutes of the Jan. 28-29 policy meeting, which were published Wednesday with a customary three-week lag. …”
 
“… President Donald Trump, in an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity that aired Tuesday night, acknowledged that inflation is on the rise again — bucking his campaign promise to lower prices immediately upon taking office. But he said the Biden administration’s runaway spending is to blame.

“Inflation is back,” Trump said.

“I had nothing to do with it. These people have — have run the country. They spent money like nobody has ever spent.”

… Trump on Tuesday night appeared to blame inflation on Biden’s push for a “Green New Scam,” although it wasn’t exactly clear what his claim referred to. No such bill ever passed.

“They were given $9 trillion to throw out the window — $9 trillion, and they spent it on the Green New Scam, I call it,” Trump said. “It’s the greatest scam in the history of the country.” …”

 
wmheel1287 said:
Everything you say resets the record for the most absurd statement ever uttered here.

We are indeed losing allies and the goodwill of the world. It will.not be very long at all before Americans will be absolutely unwelcome in most any Western European nation.
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It’s amazing how in love with their own bullshit Maggots are.
 
ChileG said:
Thanks for ruining our strong economy, Trumpers.
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It's only to be expected.


Since World War II, Democrats have seen job creation average 1.7 % per year when in office, versus 1.0 % under the GOP. US GDP has averaged a rate of growth of 4.23 percent per annum during Democratic administrations, versus 2.36 per cent under Republicans, a remarkable difference of 1.87 percentage points. This is postwar data, covering 19 presidential terms—from Truman through Biden. If one goes back further, to the Great Depression, to include Herbert Hoover and Franklin Roosevelt, the difference in growth rates is even larger.

The results are similar regardless whether one assigns responsibility for the first quarter of a president’s term to him or to his predecessor. Relatedly, the average Democratic presidential term has been in recession for 1 of its 16 quarters, whereas the average for the Republican terms has been 5 quarters, a startlingly big difference.

  1. Reasons to be skeptical
Even those of us who believe that Democrats may have pursued better policies than Republicans, overall, have a hard time explaining the big observed gap in performance. After all, many other powerful and unpredictable factors impact the economy, often dwarfing the effect of any policy levers that the president can control.

Furthermore, many policies, good or bad, have their main effects only over a time span longer than a presidential cycle. For example, Jimmy Carter deserves credit for appointing Paul Volcker as Chairman of the Fed in 1979 with a mandate to defeat inflation at all costs. The subsequent disinflation was ultimately successful, helping to set the stage for the Great Moderation of the next 20 years. But its immediate impact in 1980 was a recession. Most economists consider the Volcker monetary contraction to have been worth the price. But the downturn contributed to Carter’s failure to win re-election in November of that year. Ironically, that is the one and only recession in the last 70 years that took place with a Democrat in the White House.

  1. Is it just chance?
 

Home Sales Fell 4.9% in January, Extending Slump in Housing Market​

High home prices and mortgage rates continue to weigh on sales activity​



“…
U.S. existing-home sales declined 4.9% in January from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.08 million, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had estimated a monthly decrease of 2.6%.

In 2024, home sales fell to the lowest level since 1995 for the second straight year.

Real-estate agents are hoping that home-sales activity will pick up in the spring, which is typically the busiest time of year for home sales. Inventory is rising because some sellers need to move due to life changes and can’t keep waiting for affordability to improve.

Yet that might not be enough to get the housing market going again. Economists largely expect mortgage rates, which topped 7% last month and remain near there, to stay around current levels in the coming months. Rising home insurance and property tax costs are also adding to the cost of homeownership. …”
 
Paine said:
Fiancée and I put off buying this year and will rent again. Thanks Trump.
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Don't know if it's going to get better next year. Interest rates could hit 9%, which would put mortgage rates even higher.

When are you getting married?
 
Paine said:
Planning on March 2026.
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Y'all young kids with your eternal engagements. My first marriage was planned for about 9 months, but it was in India so there were some challenges. Second marriage was like a month and a half after engagement. Of course, engagement was March 2020 and after seeing what was going to be happening, we were like "fuck it, zoom marriage."
 
superrific said:
Y'all young kids with your eternal engagements. My first marriage was planned for about 9 months, but it was in India so there were some challenges. Second marriage was like a month and a half after engagement. Of course, engagement was March 2020 and after seeing what was going to be happening, we were like "fuck it, zoom marriage."
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I mean, if you step back, the two marriages part seems to undermine your critique of eternal engagements …
 
nycfan said:
I mean, if you step back, the two marriages part seems to undermine your critique of eternal engagements …
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I didn't critique anything. I was just poking a bit of fun. My first marriage fell apart because of mental health issues on both sides that emerged later.
 
"It sounds too radical to even warrant a second thought. That President Donald Trump could force some of the US’s foreign creditors to swap their Treasuries into ultra long-term bonds to ease the country’s debt burden.

The idea of dramatically restructuring America’s debt load is part of the Trump team’s agenda to revamp global trade via tariffs, weaken the dollar and ultimately reduce borrowing costs, all with the goal of putting US industry on more even footing with the rest of the world, said Bianco, an over three-decade market veteran and founder of Bianco Research.

Other elements of the plan include the creation of a sovereign wealth fund — which Trump has already set in motion — and forcing America’s allies to shoulder a larger share of security spending.

......

Bianco stressed that this type of debt swap may not actually happen, and if the US were to pursue it, it would require significant international cooperation and could potentially impact global financial stability. Bond investors are so far showing little sign of concern, with trading in the Treasury market particularly calm in recent days.

Still, the point of discussing these ideas with clients is to emphasize the magnitude of the potential changes in store, Bianco said.

“Take them seriously, don’t take it literally,” he said referring to the debt swap idea and some of Trump’s more radical proposals in general. “If Trump is willing to blow up NATO, why wouldn’t he be willing to blow up the financial system?”
 
From that article:

"A way to do so would be by swapping some of their Treasuries into 100-year, non-tradeable zero-coupon bonds."

"100 year non-tradeable zero-coupon bonds" is a euphemism for monopoly money. The actual value of a 100 year zero coupon bond is, to a first and second approximation, nil. You don't get a thing in return unless the USA is around for 100 years, and can still service that debt, and still cares to service that debt. NO. THANK. YOU. I would pay zero cents on the dollar for such a thing -- but apparently that wouldn't be a thing because they are non-tradeable.

So in essence, this is a fancy way of just canceling debt. It would destroy the financial system. It would not "remake it."

The concept of a 100 year non-tradeable zero-coupon bonds is mind-boggling. There's moronic; there's ultra-moronic; and there's this. I'd rather own a shitcoin.
 
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