Economic News

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The Conference Board just published it's survey about the future of our economy. It reported a figure of 65.2 which is the lowest mark in 12 years.

Anything below 80 is considered predictive of looming recession.
 
Zoo_View said:
There are several in Carrboro, in the old mill district.

McMansions and/or infill (a 2nd and/or 3rd dwelling on a lot that used to be zoned one unit) has been happening in Carrboro for YEARS.
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and not only that those monstrosities are ugly as sin and not in keeping with the mill district:mad:
 
Note that if tax receipts are going to fall as the IRS memo predicts (and I don't doubt there will be some decline -- I've been skeptical of the $500B number), the debt ceiling X date will come sooner.
 
Per Trump today, he has "lowered grocery prices dramatically."

Can any cultists verify this for us? I have not noticed this. Is it just my little area that has the same prices or a little higher? I never want to doubt our President.
 


GDP in fourth quarter lifted a hair to 2.4%. Don't expect a repeat in the first quarter.​


“…Current estimates for the economy, however, show a much slower pace of growth in the first few months of the new year, perhaps 1.5% or less.

A sharp cold snap, a holiday spending hangover and uncertainty tied to trade wars have weighed on the economy in the first quarter of 2025.

The most notable change in the fourth-quarter report, meanwhile, was a somewhat less robust pace of consumer spending. Outlays rose at a still frothy 4.0% rate instead of 4.2% as previously reported. …”
 
Core inflation rises .4% in Feb, higher than expected. That takes the 12 month inflation to 2.8%. And March and April will be the first months we truly begin to see effects of tariffs.

Dow down over 700, 1.75%
S&P down over 100, 2%
NASDAQ down almost 500, 2.8%

Let the good times roll...
 
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That post by Heather Long on last page is fairly prescient, about how people are watching prices more closely now than in 2017/2018 the last time Trump toyed with tariffs.

But hell, 2017/2018? Try 1805 and 1900. Newt Gingrich was praising the effectiveness of tariffs under Jefferson and McKinley. He even stated that we didn't even need internal taxes under Jefferson because he used tariffs. This is where Trump is getting his tariff ideas.

I'd say our economy and government are completely different now. Hell, they didn't even have electricity back then. A majority of the population was self sustaining, living off the land, farming, and building their own houses. The government was just beginning and there was not much of an economy yet.

These people live in lala land.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
That post by Heather Long on last page is fairly prescient, about how people are watching prices more closely now than in 2017/2018 the last time Trump toyed with tariffs.

But hell, 2017/2018? Try 1805 and 1900. Newt Gingrich was praising the effectiveness of tariffs under Jefferson and McKinley. He even stated that we didn't even need internal taxes under Jefferson because he used tariffs. This is where Trump is getting his tariff ideas.

I'd say our economy and government are completely different now. Hell, they didn't even have electricity back then. A majority of the population was self sustaining, living off the land, farming, and building their own houses. The government was just beginning and there was not much of an economy yet.

These people live in lala land.
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I think Trump is getting his tariff ideas from McKinley, because he said that only consequential presidents get shot, thus requiring him to explain McKinley. Suddenly McKinley became the greatest president ever.

The stuff from Gingrich and Andreesen and others about the great wonder of the Gilded Age economy and public finance is, in my view, retconning Trump's sudden affection for an assassinated president.
 
Hey Trump -- this is going to happen every time. The markets don't like tariffs. It's not foreign agitators. Every time you put in tariffs, this will happen. And every time you lift them, the market will respond positively (though on balance likely net negative).
 
That is exactly what is happening Super. The markets had a decent partial recovery, and I think a 4 or 5 successive positive days little rally. That came right after Trump softened his rhetoric on tariffs last week into the start of this week. "Reciprocal tariffs may not be as harsh as the tariffs we face, it would be way too high, that's how bad we are getting screwed, and I am a much nicer guy." And he also threw out that he was still in negotiations with Mexico and Canada, implying he may pull those. Then the comment about lighter tariffs on China, so that an American tech buddy can buy Tik Tok (what a ridiculous reason to drop tariffs if you believe in them at the level he does.)

Early next week will be VERY telling and will have a major impact on the markets one way or the other. Remember, April 2nd is the day of reciprocal tariffs and his "Day of Liberation for America."

I know you said he could not back down on that after hyping it so much. I'm not saying he will (he might) but I certainly believe he could, unlike you. He can do ANYTHING 180 degrees either way on any subject, no matter what he recently said, and his cult is 100% behind either one. Because "Trump is the greatest ever" and those simpletons don't understand anything.
 
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