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I don't want to be conspiratorial, and I understand both that a) the inflation computing processes are really hard to fake and b) the quality of the inflation data is declining because of lack of resources.

But the prices at my grocery store and local big box store have increased more than 0.3% in the past month. A lot more. So I have trouble taking this reported figure at face value.

It's possible that we're seeing a bizarre and perverse effect: inflation can't be measured for goods that have been completely priced out of the market. I can't get avocados near me (note: avocadoes are generally not USMNT compliant so the tariffs on them should still be 25%). Well, if people aren't buying avocados, they drop out of the inflation calculations. So we don't see it, even though a shortage is an even worse result than a price increase.

I'm quite sure that avocados are available elsewhere. My community is not the best market for Mexican avocados for a number of reasons. It's not as if all trade stopped. But if I can't get avocados, then y'all in NC likely have different commodities that you're finding it harder to get. Maybe not avocados.
 
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I’d welcome a 100 bps drop to juice the leveraged acquisition market but I assume we will have to settle for a couple of 25 bps cuts this Fall. But maybe a surprise cut in July (or even next week)? Probably not but would be nice.
 
nycfan said:
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I’d welcome a 100 bps drop to juice the leveraged acquisition market but I assume we will have to settle for a couple of 25 bps cuts this Fall. But maybe a surprise cut in July (or even next week)? Probably not but would be nice.
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We might or might not get those.

Does the leveraged acquisition market really depend that much on current interest rates? DCF analysis is supposed to average out the expected discount rate over time. I can't see how, financially speaking, it matters whether the current Fed funds rate is 4% or 3.5%. What matters is the T-bill rate going forward, and that is becoming uncoupled from the Fed.
 
superrific said:
We might or might not get those.

Does the leveraged acquisition market really depend that much on current interest rates? DCF analysis is supposed to average out the expected discount rate over time. I can't see how, financially speaking, it matters whether the current Fed funds rate is 4% or 3.5%. What matters is the T-bill rate going forward, and that is becoming uncoupled from the Fed.
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Typically the leveraged acquisition market is at a remove from the Fed rate but things have tightened up significantly and the Fed rate puts a lot of pressure on the cost of resolving ongoing defaults and the cost of bridge financing. A big drop in the Fed rate would be opening a pressure valve and hopefully unstick a lot of the potential deals sitting in limbo and clear a path to resolve some to the growing list of defaults for troubled portfolio companies.
 
nycfan said:
Typically the leveraged acquisition market is at a remove from the Fed rate but things have tightened up significantly and the Fed rate puts a lot of pressure on the cost of resolving ongoing defaults and the cost of bridge financing. A big drop in the Fed rate would be opening a pressure valve and hopefully unstick a lot of the potential deals sitting in limbo and clear a path to resolve some to the growing list of defaults for troubled portfolio companies.
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Ah, bridge financing. I forgot about that. Question answered. The rest might be of practical importance, but from abstract view, the bridge financing element wraps up the theory.
 
I’ll second the anecdotal evidence presented by super, while acknowledging the inflation numbers, on the
face, look fine.

My grocery bill is up ~10-12% since start of the year. My list is 90% fixed, so it’s relatively easy to compare, week over week. My staples, such as egg whites, almond butter, avocados, jalapeños, bananas, whole bean coffee, greens, and oil olive all up at least 10%. Maybe the Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s around me aren’t representative, but my costs of living are noticeably up.

I’ve also seen an increase in the mildly used mid-market SUVs (eg top trim of CRV, lower trims of NX), ie around 3-5% since “Liberation Day”.
 
Healing said:
I’ll second the anecdotal evidence presented by super, while acknowledging the inflation numbers, on the
face, look fine.

My grocery bill is up ~10-12% since start of the year. My list is 90% fixed, so it’s relatively easy to compare, week over week. My staples, such as egg whites, almond butter, avocados, jalapeños, bananas, whole bean coffee, greens, and oil olive all up at least 10%. Maybe the Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s around me aren’t representative, but my costs of living are noticeably up.

I’ve also seen an increase in the mildly used mid-market SUVs (eg top trim of CRV, lower trims of NX), ie around 3-5% since “Liberation Day”.
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You buy egg whites? Why?
 
Healing said:
I’ll second the anecdotal evidence presented by super, while acknowledging the inflation numbers, on the
face, look fine.

My grocery bill is up ~10-12% since start of the year. My list is 90% fixed, so it’s relatively easy to compare, week over week. My staples, such as egg whites, almond butter, avocados, jalapeños, bananas, whole bean coffee, greens, and oil olive all up at least 10%. Maybe the Whole Foods and Trader Joe’s around me aren’t representative, but my costs of living are noticeably up.

I’ve also seen an increase in the mildly used mid-market SUVs (eg top trim of CRV, lower trims of NX), ie around 3-5% since “Liberation Day”.
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Your grocery list sounds very similar to mine and is quite stable. I’ve seen the rise in prices too.

Though buy both eggs and egg whites 😀
 
We eat out a lot, and restaurant prices are definitely increasing.

Another thing I’ve noticed is shrinking package sizes. Shredded cheese typically comes in 8 oz/2 cup packages. I bought a bag of Sargento Mexican Four Cheese Blend last week and noticed it was 7 oz/1 3/4 cups. Things that used to come in 1 lb packages are now 14 oz. A half gallon of ice cream is now 1 1/2 quarts. I’m guessing some of these shrinking packages slip through the inflation numbers, and certainly get past some consumers who think the price is the same when they are actually paying the same price for less amounts of goods.
 
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