Economic News

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 2K
  • Views: 127K
  • Politics 

ā€œā€¦ The upshot: Insurers are learning the hard way that restoring profitability means accepting lower growth or shrinkage in their Medicare Advantage rolls. And the pullback isn’t limited to Medicare. Similar retreats are under way in Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act (ACA) exchanges.

Insurers say they aren’t pulling back by choice. For years, Medicare Advantage was the golden goose—delivering relatively high margins and steady growth. That spurred a flood of increasingly generous plans aimed at winning seniors and market share. Now that strategy is unraveling, as Wall Street grows wary of just how unpredictable profits in government programs have become.

Medicare Advantage, long championed by Republicans as a cost-saving alternative to traditional Medicare, was supposed to save taxpayers money. But as allegations mounted that insurers were being overpaid, bipartisan scrutiny of the program intensified and the Biden administration moved to rein in costs. The timing couldn’t have been worse for investors: Lower payments collided with soaring medical expenses, creating a perfect storm of lower revenue, higher costs and shrinking profits.ā€¦ā€
 


ā€œā€¦ when they say that nobody was involved, it wasn’t political, you know, give me a break. Look, before the election I had this massive, massive outflow of uh BEAUTY for Biden, I mean he didn’t know he was alive [host chuckles] and so Biden I mean the economy was roaring it was a beautiful thing. And I said there is no way this is happening, it’s going the opposite direction and two weeks later they said I was right. But even if you look at the original, the ones from the other day, the numbers were very timid and then they announced something that made them even more timid on top of it on [sort of a reporting day (unclear)] I don’t know why it just seemed a little more important than most times when they announce these numbers [host interrupts]ā€
 
Last edited:
I’m rooting for the markets to tank. I went all cash last week and decided to take August off. Will get back in when the tariff craziness is a little more settled.
I've been 50% in cash since Trump took office. The cash has been earning 4.5% The majority of the cash is in a Roth so the interest paid is tax free. Compared to what the markets have done up until now being in cash has held up pretty well.

You are taking August off and so am I. I'm not hoping for the markets to tank, but I think things will look ugly for the markets and the economy come October. I hope I am wrong, but I will continue to take a better safe than sorry perspective.
 
ā€œā€¦Low-income earners spend a greater portion of their money on housing and food, which have both seen prices rise dramatically, noted a recent report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Some working families in Broome County are now leaning more on public assistance for help. But if their salaries increase, even slightly, their eligibility for state and federal assistance could be reduced.

…
Felica Allen, a 39-year-old nursing assistant and single mom, works the graveyard shift in the emergency room at UHS Wilson Medical Center near Binghamton before returning home each morning to care for her four children, ages 3, 12, 14 and 17. A fifth, 22, moved out in September.

Allen’s $20 an hour salary rose last year to $22.90, which amounted in 2024 to about $39,000 for the hours she worked, including bonuses and overtime. That’s more money than she’s ever made and not far above the federal government’s supplemental poverty threshold for her family size.

It still doesn’t come close to covering her expenses, she said, and her financial situation has worsened despite earning more.

… In March, she decided to reduce her official weekly work hours from 32 to 26 so she could get back $220 in food benefits. She has managed to take on extra shifts when they pop up at the hospital, to make up the difference in salary.ā€¦ā€
She leaving like $18k on the table by not working full time. Perhaps she should work more instead of less. WTF?
 


ā€œā€¦ when they say that nobody was involved, it wasn’t political, you know, give me a break. Look, before the election I had this massive, massive outflow of uh BEAUTY for Biden, I mean he didn’t know he was alive [host chuckles] and so Biden I mean the economy was roaring it was a beautiful thing. And I said there is no way this is happening, it’s going the opposite direction and two weeks later they said I was right. But even if you look at the original, the ones from the other day, the numbers were very timid and then they announced something that made them even more timid on top of it on [sort of a reporting day (unclear)] I don’t know why it just seemed a little more important than most times when they announce these numbers [host interrupts]ā€



[Host these numbers aren’t so bad, unemployment only 4.2%]

Trump: ā€œIt’s fine. I’m not saying it was terrible. I will say this, the numbers before the election were earth-shattering. I’m not saying these were earth-shattering [hist crosstalk ā€œNo I understandā€] then they announced something a couple hundred thousand to make it look a little bit worse from you know months before and I said where did those numbers come from?

So [host crosstalk ā€œas much as you wanna ā€¦ā€] look it’s a highly political, it’s a highly political situation [host OK], it’s totally rigged, smart people know it, people with common sense know it [host crosstalk - OK but … let’s try to move on] a lot of people try to keep their head under the covers and just not believe it.ā€
 


Trump: ā€œWe were in such bad shape when I took over, eggs had tripled in price more than that, everything was up, and prices are down and it bugs me. I looked at CNN the other night which is a failing uh deal it’s got no ratings and I’m probably the only guy watching and I watch these guys talking about ā€˜well with Trump prices are up’ no no prices are down since I came in. Down. Allll prices just about except for the price of stock. The price of stock is way up, OK? Prices are down. And if you look [host crosstalk- inflation is (inaudible)] and I’ll give you an example, Joe [host crosstalk some of ā€˜em, some of ā€˜em are down] Joe look at energy. Energy is WAY down. Energy is down to two dollars and twenty cents a barrel a uh a uh gallon now for a car it’s down to uh [host crosstalk- I’ve seen $2.80] your down to a level I guess around $65 a barrel but it’s going down.

There’s tremendous energy and if you notice, OPEC and OPEC plus uh they’re drilling more, they wanna drill more cause I think they want me happy cause if energy goes down low enough Putin’s gonna stop killing people. That’ll be nice and if you know they’re his own people that are dying him and uh Ukraine. But Putin will stop killing peiple if you get energy down another $10 a barrel, he’s gonna have no choice cause his economy stinks.ā€
 
The cash savings won’t affect reported earnings, which are calculated using different accounting rules than taxes. It won’t all ultimately end up in free cash flow either, because AT&T plans to reinvest much of the savings in new capital projects. But the change is still a positive for the company’s shareholders and valuation, all other things being equal….ā€
And is a negative for the US Treasury, all other things being equal.
 
This is why I noted this is a stimulus bill and the economy will not be tanking in the near future. Just like the first time around.
You should check your economics. There are two problems with this theory.

1. Companies holding cash is bad for the economy. Recessions occur when savings exceed investment. Essentially, cash sitting around represents potential but not actual production. More cash = less production = worse economy. That's why monetary policy works the way it does: you cut rates when the economy is doing poorly, in order to make cash less desirable and to get the cash off the sidelines. When the economy is overheating because people are borrowing too much, rates get increased.

2. Tax cuts don't really work as stimulus. That's because any money flowing out of the Treasury as tax cuts has to flow back in as debt. If the problem is that businesses aren't investing (and that's clearly a big problem right now, if the economic numbers are remotely correct), giving them cash isn't going to make them invest more. The problem isn't and hasn't been that they are liquidity constrained; it's that there's not enough demand. So Treasury gives out tax cuts, and the businesses just buy bonds.

All those tax cuts do is replace assets of the United States with debt owed by the United States, to the recipients of the tax cuts. It's a giveaway. When the government spends money in a recession, it is guaranteeing a boost to aggregate demand. Tax cuts don't do that. They add to supply and then hope the supply induces demand. That has never worked out, to my knowledge, in any way that could be considered successful stimulus.

3. You're probably confusing the welfare of stockholders with the welfare of the country. It's true that investors like cash. But why? What's so great about cash? If GM suddenly sells a ton more cars, and it sells most of them on financing, then isn't it making more money even if it's not making as much cash?

The answer is that cash isn't corporate bullshit. Investors are often concerned about excessively non-cash earnings, because there is a fear that a) the earnings are the results of cooking the books or some sort of accounting maneuver that boosts the bottom line without improving the business and/or b) the non-cash earnings will turn out to be illusory, or will be squandered. For instance, in the example of GM there, if it sells a million financed cars, it will report a huge earnings spike. Will they actually collect the money they are owed, or are they soon going to have half a million repo-ed vehicles on a lot somewhere?

But none of those considerations has any relevance to the economy as a whole.

4. The first time around, the big tax cuts didn't stimulate the economy hardly at all, while ballooning the deficit. There was no crash because there was nothing to cause a crash -- the economy was strong in 2016 and the Fed was running extremely accommodative monetary policy. Nobody predicted that Trump was going to cause a recession. People predicted that the 2017 tax cuts would hollow out the treasury with no gain, which happened, and also had many perverse incentives, such as rewarding offshoring of labor (in a provision supposedly about repatriation, lol) which also happened.
 
She leaving like $18k on the table by not working full time. Perhaps she should work more instead of less. WTF?
Maybe it costs her more to pay for child care than what she can bring in. WTF can't you understand that? Why is that you right-wingers are constantly judging people without having any fucking idea what their lives are like?
 
You should check your economics. There are two problems with this theory.

1. Companies holding cash is bad for the economy. Recessions occur when savings exceed investment. Essentially, cash sitting around represents potential but not actual production. More cash = less production = worse economy. That's why monetary policy works the way it does: you cut rates when the economy is doing poorly, in order to make cash less desirable and to get the cash off the sidelines. When the economy is overheating because people are borrowing too much, rates get increased.

2. Tax cuts don't really work as stimulus. That's because any money flowing out of the Treasury as tax cuts has to flow back in as debt. If the problem is that businesses aren't investing (and that's clearly a big problem right now, if the economic numbers are remotely correct), giving them cash isn't going to make them invest more. The problem isn't and hasn't been that they are liquidity constrained; it's that there's not enough demand. So Treasury gives out tax cuts, and the businesses just buy bonds.

All those tax cuts do is replace assets of the United States with debt owed by the United States, to the recipients of the tax cuts. It's a giveaway. When the government spends money in a recession, it is guaranteeing a boost to aggregate demand. Tax cuts don't do that. They add to supply and then hope the supply induces demand. That has never worked out, to my knowledge, in any way that could be considered successful stimulus.

3. You're probably confusing the welfare of stockholders with the welfare of the country. It's true that investors like cash. But why? What's so great about cash? If GM suddenly sells a ton more cars, and it sells most of them on financing, then isn't it making more money even if it's not making as much cash?

The answer is that cash isn't corporate bullshit. Investors are often concerned about excessively non-cash earnings, because there is a fear that a) the earnings are the results of cooking the books or some sort of accounting maneuver that boosts the bottom line without improving the business and/or b) the non-cash earnings will turn out to be illusory, or will be squandered. For instance, in the example of GM there, if it sells a million financed cars, it will report a huge earnings spike. Will they actually collect the money they are owed, or are they soon going to have half a million repo-ed vehicles on a lot somewhere?

But none of those considerations has any relevance to the economy as a whole.

4. The first time around, the big tax cuts didn't stimulate the economy hardly at all, while ballooning the deficit. There was no crash because there was nothing to cause a crash -- the economy was strong in 2016 and the Fed was running extremely accommodative monetary policy. Nobody predicted that Trump was going to cause a recession. People predicted that the 2017 tax cuts would hollow out the treasury with no gain, which happened, and also had many perverse incentives, such as rewarding offshoring of labor (in a provision supposedly about repatriation, lol) which also happened.
It almost like the bill should do something to encourage investment of those new dollars from tax relief.

In short, changes like allowing upfront depreciation of assets and immediate expensing of research-and-development expenses will bring swift windfalls to American corporations but also lasting tailwinds.
 
Last edited:
It almost like the bill should do something to encourage investment of those new dollars from tax relief.

In short, changes like allowing upfront depreciation of assets and immediate expensing of research-and-development expenses will bring swift windfalls to American corporations but also lasting tailwinds.
I think you missed point #2. My company is sitting on millions in cash because demand is soft due to the uncertainty in the economy. My clients are being hugely cautious and so there are few obvious/large investments we could make right now that would generate a clear ROI. We're doing fine, but our cash is in CDs waiting to either (a) be used when/if the president gets his head out of his ass and quits fucking around with every aspect of the economy, or (b) be used to weather an economic meltdown. Love to see (a), feel like (b) is more likely.
 
Back
Top