Economic News

[nycfan]

Among other things, this chart indicates that we never recovered from the massive increase of long term unemployed people during the Great Recession. It improved but the trough of long term unemployed since then (ignoring the COVId gyration) is closer to the peak of long term unemployment of prior recessions.

Are people more willing to/ able to hold out for a similar position now or is there a larger cohort of poorly skilled workers who struggle to find permanent gainful employment?

“… Six months of unemployment often signals a turning point in a person’s job search, according to economists. They’ve likely run out of unemployment insurance benefits and severance payments by then, leaving them on shakier financial ground. People who have been unemployed for more than six months are also more likely to become discouraged and stop looking for work altogether.

… Studies have found that workers who are unemployed long-term are less likely to find jobs than others. They’re also more likely to drop out of the workforce entirely. A 2014 study by economists at Princeton University found that nearly half of those unemployed for seven months or longer, in the aftermath of the Great Recession, ended up leaving the labor force.

“The longer people linger in unemployment, the more likely they are to lose their contacts and connections, and after an extended period of time, their skills can depreciate,” said Francine Blau, a labor economist and professor emeritus at Cornell University. “And there is the possibility that employers see [long-term unemployment] as a sign of a less desirable worker.”…”

 

[superrific]

Are people more willing to/ able to hold out for a similar position now or is there a larger cohort of poorly skilled workers who struggle to find permanent gainful employment?

Or laid off workers in their 50s.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Centerpiece]

Trump Economy: “Dead in the Water”
U.S. owning INTEL (or any other company): “Unwise”
Good summations and snapshots to Trump-led economic issues:

 

[heelinhell]

Rather than base their decision on "denial of due process " why not add that there was no basis for the attempted firing because she did not commit fraud.


She did not have mortgages on two primary residences. Trump and his henchman Pulte lied....here's my shocked face

 

[lawtig02]

Rather than base their decision on "denial of due process " why not add that there was no basis for the attempted firing because she did not commit fraud.


She did not have mortgages on two primary residences. Trump and his henchman Pulte lied....here's my shocked face

While that is true, I don’t know if it’s in evidence for the purposes of this injunction.

 

[heelinhell]

While that is true, I don’t know if it’s in evidence for the purposes of this injunction.

Do you think that fact may give SCOTUS less a willingness to take up Trump's emergency appeal ?

I can see the Trumpers on the court finding "due process" as wiggle room to appease Trump. I was thinking that, absent Alito and Thomas, there may one or two Trump appeasers who will say hearing this case based upon an outright lie is a bridge too far.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

“…For those in the bottom 80% of the income distribution, those making less than approximately $175,000 a year – their spending has simply kept pace with inflation since the pandemic. The 20% of households that make more have done much better, and those in the top 3.3% of the distribution have done much, much, much better. The data also show that the U.S. economy is being largely powered by the well-to-do. As long as they keep spending, the economy should avoid recession, but if they turn more cautious, for whatever reason, the economy has a big problem.”

 

[superrific]

Do you think that fact may give SCOTUS less a willingness to take up Trump's emergency appeal ?

I can see the Trumpers on the court finding "due process" as wiggle room to appease Trump. I was thinking that, absent Alito and Thomas, there may one or two Trump appeasers who will say hearing this case based upon an outright lie is a bridge too far.

1. It will give them less willingness. But that could take their willingness from 100 to 70%, if you know what I mean.
2. They've heard multiple cases in the past few years based on outright lies and they haven't cared about that.
3. It is an outright lie that the constitution ever embodied a principle of criminal immunity for the president, but that didn't stop them.

The bigger factor for them, I think, is that they have stock portfolios. They don't give a fuck about the NLRB because that doesn't affect them at all (except some of them have a tremendous hostility to unions for some reason). That's why they created the bespoke federal reserve exception in the first place.

Sometimes the court tries to pick a case that they don't care about much, rule in a way that seems surprisingly liberal, and then attempts to use that to cover their asses on their pro-fascist holdings. This usually happens like the second to last week of the term, but given all the activity over the summer, it might happen now. And then they will go back to eviscerating democracy while asking us to have respect for their lawlessness.

 

[heelinhell]

“…For those in the bottom 80% of the income distribution, those making less than approximately $175,000 a year – their spending has simply kept pace with inflation since the pandemic. The 20% of households that make more have done much better, and those in the top 3.3% of the distribution have done much, much, much better. The data also show that the U.S. economy is being largely powered by the well-to-do. As long as they keep spending, the economy should avoid recession, but if they turn more cautious, for whatever reason, the economy has a big problem.”

"The 20% of households that make more have done much better, and those in the top 3.3% of the distribution have done much, much, much better."

Wait a minute ... based upon the policies that GQPers have been promoting for the last 45 years, I thought the problem they were trying to solve was that the, poor, working class, and middle class families have too much and the rich have too little.

If these data are accurate, then maybe these GQPer policies should be re-examined by the GQP ? Or maybe these policies have corrected the problem and finally the rich are finally beginning to catch up with the rest of the country.

 

[nycfan]

 

[superrific]

that could be in part because the price of gold is so high. I really don't know the macroeconomics of international gold holdings.

 

[altmin]

Fitting image. That actor is a right wing nut job. Him and another actor on Sullivan's crossing won't even be in the same building, let alone do scenes together. They shoot the scenes twice with body doubles from behind, each setup from the other side of the camera. the one actor won't even come to set till he is done for the day, so they won't pass each other.

 

[nycfan]

The Fed is widely expected to reduce rates by 25 bps today. The only tension is whether some board members will dissent to cal for more aggressive reductions (and the political undercurrents of having a Circuit Court allowing Lisa Cooke to continue and a new member added who is also still a member of the Trump Admin in Miran, finishing out a term of the prior Fed governor who abruptly resigned without explanation earlier this year).

But for reference, history of Fed effective rate:

 

[heelinhell]

I think at least a 25bps cut is a lock.

A 50bps cut would make Mr. Market look like he is on crystal meth going into the close

 

[nycfan]

—> https://www.wsj.com/economy/central...0?st=93ACZu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[nycfan]

—> https://www.wsj.com/economy/central...0?st=93ACZu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… A narrow majority of officials penciled in at least two additional cuts this year, implying consecutive moves at the Fed’s two remaining meetings in October and December. The projections hint at a broader shift toward concern about cracks forming in the job market in an environment complicated by major policy shifts that have made the economy harder to read.

… Fed governor Stephen Miran, who served as a senior White House adviser until his confirmation to the central bank board this week, dissented in favor of a larger half-point cut.

The projections underscore how coming decisions could be more contentious: seven of 19 meeting participants penciled in no further rate reductions this year, and two more penciled in only one more cut. And they show that most officials don’t expect to make many more reductions next year under their current outlook for solid economic activity.…”