EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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nycfan

nycfan

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Thought we might benefit from a thread dedicated to the exit polls and turnout data as that becomes available today.

NBC Exit Polls —> National Exit Polls: Election 2024 Results

www.telegraph.co.uk

What time will we get exit polls for the 2024 presidential election?

Result could take weeks or even months to determine depending on how close it is
www.telegraph.co.uk www.telegraph.co.uk

“… The embargo period for exit polls will end at 5pm ET on polling day, after which news organisations are allowed to begin reporting results from individual states.

However, at this point they are not permitted to project a winner while voting is still taking place.

Exit polls will only be announced in states where the margins are large enough and they will not be used in the battleground states to project whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump have won. …”
 
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CNN 2020 Exit Polls for reference —> National Results 2020 President exit polls.

How it works:

“… Exit polls include those who vote absentee or early in two ways. The first is by conducting multi-mode polls (i.e. by phone, text and email) among those who have voted absentee or early. Second, in states with a high proportion of early in-person voters, exit polls are conducted in the weeks leading up to Election Day as these voters leave early-voting polling places. Data from the multi-mode polls and early-voter exit polls are combined with the Election Day exit poll to provide a complete picture of all voters, regardless of when they voted.

… On Election Day, there is a strict embargo on any data coming from the early waves of exit poll data until 5 p.m. ET. By about 5:45 p.m. ET, some initial demographic information about voters and their views on key issues in the election will be available on ABCNews.com.

After the polls close in a state, the complete exit poll crosstabs (which are data tables showing how a variety of subgroups have voted) will be posted …”

abcnews.go.com

What you need to know about Election Day exit polls

Exit polls are surveys conducted as voters leave their polling places.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
GIFT LINK --> Clues to a Trump or Harris Victory Could Emerge Early. Here’s What to Look For.

Clues to a Trump or Harris Victory Could Emerge Early. Here’s What to Look For.​


"... The first battleground state where the polls will close is Georgia, at 7 p.m. Eastern time, followed closely by North Carolina, at 7:30 p.m. Eastern. A majority of voters cast ballots early in both states, and those results are expected to be reported early in the night. The vast majority of ballots in both states are likely to be tallied and reported by midnight.

... In Pennsylvania, which both campaigns view as a must-win state, polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern time. But because election workers aren’t allowed to start processing mail ballots until Election Day, counting is expected to stretch past Tuesday night. In Michigan, where the last polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, only about half the ballots were counted by midnight in 2020 and 2022, although recent reforms could speed things up. In Wisconsin, where polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern, counting could stretch late into the night.

... The polls in the two Western swing states, Arizona and Nevada, close at 9 p.m. and 10 p.m. Eastern, respectively. But both states rely heavily on mail ballots, and the counting could stretch for days.

...All year, polling has suggested that several key groups of voters are getting a little less Democratic, with Mr. Trump making inroads with Black, Latino and young voters while Democrats’ longstanding advantage in cities erodes. Democrats, by contrast, have improved their standing with white voters and older voters who used to be more likely to vote Republican.

It will be a long time before we can say with certainty whether 2024 brought a broader realignment — and years before we know if any shift was permanent. But exit polling, as well as Democratic performance in congressional districts with a lot of these voters, including in the Rio Grande Valley in South Texas or in rural districts with lots of Black voters like North Carolina’s First District, will offer some early hints. ..."
 
"Philadelphia has started counting mail-in ballots at a warehouse in the city’s Northeast. The city moved its Election Day headquarters here after there were large demonstrations outside its counting center in Center City during the 2020 election. Officials say mail-in results will likely come faster this year due to a post-Covid decline in voting by mail and new machines that speed up envelope-opening and scanning."

 
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