EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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Good lord, there's barely been a post in this thread in week, it's not like this is hijacking some intense conversation about the OP...
 
A few months ago or so the ABC stores here had a sale on Famous Grouse Smokey Black half gallon. Bought one and wished I bought more. Haven't even seen it in stores since. Nearly as good as many single malts.
 
So 10% of the latino-heavy precincts (30% Latino) picked a pres but not a senator?

And of those who did pick a senator a large number were split-ticketers?

 
Not a good trend in California. I understand, Democrats under performed in New York House Districts.

Guess this thread proves there has been a red shift. Democrats will have to address this. The 2026 election will be about retaking the House rather then the Senate. Not sure how Democrats can refresh the Party's image when dealing with gerrymandered district factors.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Not a good trend in California. I understand, Democrats under performed in New York House Districts.

Guess this thread proves there has been a red shift. Democrats will have to address this. The 2026 election will be about retaking the House rather then the Senate. Not sure how Democrats can refresh the Party's image when dealing with gerrymandered district factors.
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If Trump does what we think he will do, the Senate will flip so long as elections are free and fair.
 
superrific said:
If Trump does what we think he will do, the Senate will flip so long as elections are free and fair.
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LOL, well afraid you are correct that Trump will do what we think he will do. Guess I didn't factor that one.

Just last time I looked, looked like slim pickings on potential Senate pickups. And pretty sure Georgia will flip back to the GOP.
 
BlueSmoke said:
LOL, well afraid you are correct that Trump will do what we think he will do. Guess I didn't factor that one.

Just last time I looked, looked like slim pickings on potential Senate pickups. And pretty sure Georgia will flip back to the GOP.
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If there's 10% unemployment and 9% inflation and shelves are bare, I have my doubts that Georgia will flip. Wisconsin will. NC will. And other states that seem out of reach will be in play in that scenario.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Not a good trend in California. I understand, Democrats under performed in New York House Districts.

Guess this thread proves there has been a red shift. Democrats will have to address this. The 2026 election will be about retaking the House rather then the Senate. Not sure how Democrats can refresh the Party's image when dealing with gerrymandered district factors.
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I don't know - judging from the California chart there was less of a red shift than Democrats just not showing up. And that seems to have been the story of the election. It's not that Trump got more votes - his total increased from 74 million to 77 million - it's that Kamala lost over 6 million votes from Biden's 2020 total. The real issue, imo, wasn't so much a red shift as Democrats just not turning out. That's what Democrats need to work on - how to fire up their base and get them out to vote. Of course Trump 2.0 may take care of that problem if they screw up enough, which seems likely given the (mostly) clown show he's appointing to his cabinet and as agency heads.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I don't know - judging from the California chart there was less of a red shift than Democrats just not showing up. And that seems to have been the story of the election. It's not that Trump got more votes - his total increased from 74 million to 77 million - it's that Kamala lost over 6 million votes from Biden's 2020 total. The real issue, imo, wasn't so much a red shift as Democrats just not turning out. That's what Democrats need to work on - how to fire up their base and get them out to vote. Of course Trump 2.0 may take care of that problem if they screw up enough, which seems likely given the (mostly) clown show he's appointing to his cabinet and as agency heads.
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Democrats don't need to get people to turn out in New York, New Jersey and California, which accounts for the bulk of the 6 million delta between Kamala and Joe. They need people to turn out in MiWisPaAzGaNevNC
 
In 2028, maybe the Dems should hold an open, competitive primary to allow their voters to choose a candidate vs the Obama gang selecting their candidate. But this hasn’t occurred since 2008 so they’re out of practice.
 
That's a good trend. It would have likely been 10 out of 10 if California hadn't still been counting its votes one month after the election.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Not a good trend in California. I understand, Democrats under performed in New York House Districts.

Guess this thread proves there has been a red shift. Democrats will have to address this. The 2026 election will be about retaking the House rather then the Senate. Not sure how Democrats can refresh the Party's image when dealing with gerrymandered district factors.
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The first step for Democrats is admitting they have a problem.
 
Dave Wasserman said:
Fact: in 2024, the House majority was decided by just 7,309 votes across three districts (#IA01, #CO08 and #PA07) out of 148 million votes cast nationwide.

For comparison: in 2022, the House majority was decided by 6,675 votes across five narrowly GOP-won districts (#CA13, #CO03, #IA03, #MI10 and #NY17), and in 2020 it was decided by 31,751 votes across five narrowly Dem-won districts (#IL14, #IA03, #NJ07, #TX15 and #VA07).
 
gregh1 said:
Dave Wasserman said:
Fact: in 2024, the House majority was decided by just 7,309 votes across three districts (#IA01, #CO08 and #PA07) out of 148 million votes cast nationwide.

For comparison: in 2022, the House majority was decided by 6,675 votes across five narrowly GOP-won districts (#CA13, #CO03, #IA03, #MI10 and #NY17), and in 2020 it was decided by 31,751 votes across five narrowly Dem-won districts (#IL14, #IA03, #NJ07, #TX15 and #VA07).
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NY and CA Dems need to stop playing bygone games.
 
gregh1 said:
Whew, elections are now secure. All good folks, no thousands of mules to be seen, back to work!
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Unless you live in PA where laws were ignored and policy made up at the whim of the board chair.

"Democratic board chair Neil Makhija voted to accept the ballots so that voters would not be disenfranchised. But other members of the board, including one Democrat and a Republican, voted to reject the ballots on the advice of county attorneys who determined the law clearly states they should not be counted.

"We’re talking about constitutional rights and I cannot take an action to throw out someone’s ballot that is validly cast, otherwise, over an issue that we know ... is immaterial," Makhija said during Thursday's meeting. The board ultimately voted to count a total of 501 contested ballots.

Similar disputes over hundreds of votes have played out in Bucks, Chester and Delaware Counties.
 
Callatoroy said:
Unless you live in PA where laws were ignored and policy made up at the whim of the board chair.

"Democratic board chair Neil Makhija voted to accept the ballots so that voters would not be disenfranchised. But other members of the board, including one Democrat and a Republican, voted to reject the ballots on the advice of county attorneys who determined the law clearly states they should not be counted.

"We’re talking about constitutional rights and I cannot take an action to throw out someone’s ballot that is validly cast, otherwise, over an issue that we know ... is immaterial," Makhija said during Thursday's meeting. The board ultimately voted to count a total of 501 contested ballots.

Similar disputes over hundreds of votes have played out in Bucks, Chester and Delaware Counties.
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How does counting valid votes undermine election security?
 
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