EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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Trump just now from Palm Beach FL:

Trump: "I don't want any violence."
Reporter: "Will you tell your supporters that?"
Trump: "I'm not going to tell them that. I don't have to - they're great people."

Mmmmmkay, stand back and stand by, 2.0.
 
nycfan said:
Thanks for the effort — too bad about the turnout
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Dunno, zero line at my local precinct. Was an early voting location and I think everybody has already voted. I heard that as of 7:30 this morning that there were only 700 eligible voters left in the precinct! No line, but seems like great turnout.
 
Ddseddse said:
Dunno, zero line at my local precinct. Was an early voting location and I think everybody has already voted. I heard that as of 7:30 this morning that there were only 700 eligible voters left in the precinct! No line, but seems like great turnout.
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That sounds like a small number remaining but I really don't have any context. Does anyone have any idea how big a standard precinct is? I could see it being like 2,000 or 20,000. I really have no idea.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
That sounds like a small number remaining but I really don't have any context. Does anyone have any idea how big a standard precinct is? I could see it being like 2,000 or 20,000. I really have no idea.
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Report on precinct sizes

“In North Carolina, the number of registered voters assigned to a particular voting place varies greatly from precinct to precinct. In terms of registered voters, precinct sizes range from a low of 21 voters to as many as 6,827.”
 
Just my little anecdote leading into Election Day - of 18 houses yesterday where we were able to talk with someone, 9 residences (1-4) people had already voted and 9 residences were voting today. As I had reported last week, an elderly black lady said she was waiting to vote today with a large group from her church. All these anecdotes should be considered straight blue.

I was a bit disappointed that the database used to generate the canvassing maps was in some cases 7+ years out of date. In some neighborhoods this can represent quite a bit of turnover. It was surprising that even in mixed race neighborhoods the current new residents were typically other blue voters.

ETA: All visits were in Cabarrus County, which is considered one of the seven light red counties nationwide most likely to flip to light blue.
 
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So far, only one person has walked up and screamed, "You're a traitor!" in my face. He went on for about five minutes telling me that I didn't understand the Constitution. He would not take, "We are going to have to agree to disagree," for an answer. Finally, he moved on to the Republican greeters and started calling them traitors too.
 
CNN is talking to an absolute moron right now.
Voted Biden in 2020 but switched to Trump today because of the economy.
 
The 5 Things I’m Watching Tonight -- with my annotations

"
  • Indiana (6 p.m. ET): If there’s a surge in female turnout, it might signal backlash against strict abortion bans like Indiana’s — a trend that could ripple across other states. In addition, Indiana’s results may confirm a shift toward Kamala Harris as seen in last weekend’s surprising Iowa poll. [
2020 Indiana:
IN20.jpeg​
  • Virginia (7 p.m. ET): Donald Trump’s overperformance in rural Virginia in 2016 sent early shockwaves about polling errors. If rural areas turnout in big numbers for Republicans again tonight, it could foreshadow bigger trends across the map. [NYCFAN's NOTE --> watch Hanover County -- Trump +27 in '20, but Trump +33 in '16, and Roanoke County, Trump +22 in '20, +27.6 in '16 -- and where Trump visited (Salem) this past week.]
  • Ohio (7:30 p.m. ET): Keep an eye on ticket-splitting in Ohio. Republican Senate candidates have lagged behind Trump in polling all year. If Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) significantly outperforms the top of the ticket, Democrats might have a shot at holding the Senate.
  • Michigan (8 p.m. ET): There’s virtually no path to victory for Kamala Harris without Michigan. Check Dearborn’s results for signs of any discontent among Muslim voters over Biden’s Gaza stance. And keep an eye on overall Detroit turnout—Harris needs to rack up votes here to stay competitive. [2020 - Wayne County (Dearborn & Detroit) - Biden +28, over 872,000 total votes cast;
  • Wisconsin (9 p.m. ET): Wisconsin should come down to the WOW counties—Waukesha [Trump 59.6%, Biden 38.8% ~260K votes total], Ozaukee [Trump 55%, Biden 43% ~60K votes total], , and Washington [Trump 68%, Biden 30% ~77K votes total]—that ring Milwaukee [Biden 69%, Trump 29%, ~ 450,000 total votes]. Harris will need to at least match Biden’s 2020 numbers here if she hopes to keep Wisconsin blue." -- ALSO watch Dane County (where U. Wisconsin is), which had about 340,000 total votes and Biden had 75.5% to Trump 23% -- any slippage might support Trump strength among younger men, though these would be educated younger men, so not quite Trump's sweet spot]
 
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