EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

[stankeylegjones]

If that's the case, then there's nothing to do do other than wait for it to get much worse for them than it has been. Youre essentially saying that the only thing motivating them to vote is "anything other than the same". So just wait and be "not the same".

Is there something deeper there than that? Honestly I already feel the contrast is about as stark as it can be. It's virtually impossible to simultaneously be in power and preach change. If change for the sake of change is the motivating factor, then there was never anything to be done about the election from the perspective of Democrats.

Hopefully you are right, and this shit will be over after four years, with us all getting back to democratic control of the white house and branches.

There's no way of knowing, but I do think if she'd come out and championed the strength of the economy while also pointing out how she would help those struggling to make ends meet, then it would have resonated with many voters (both who did vote and those who sat it out).

 

[wmheel1287]

Hopefully you are right, and this shit will be over after four years, with us all getting back to democratic control of the white house and branches.

There's no way of knowing, but I do think if she'd come out and championed the strength of the economy while also pointing out how she would help those struggling to make ends meet, then it would have resonated with many voters (both who did vote and those who sat it out).

For the record, I was one who was FURIOUS at Biden for ever running and for not having a primary. His old ass should be beat for it. Love him but seriously mean it. Just like RBG's grave deserves a good pissing for her own hubris.

Im so SICK of old fucks who will not get out of the way. Hell, I'm 46 and I should be out of the way in another 15 years. The idea that I should be in control of anything 3 decades from now is totally laughable.

 

[stankeylegjones]

For the record, I was one who was FURIOUS at Biden for ever running and for not having a primary. His old ass should be beat for it. Love him but seriously mean it. Just like RBG's grave deserves a good pissing for her own hubris.

Im so SICK of old fucks who will not get out of the way. Hell, I'm 46 and I should be out of the way in another 15 years. The idea that I should be in control of anything 3 decades from now is totally laughable.

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

If you've never experienced it, the folks that are on the cognitive decline never see it. They don't want to stop driving or living in their house. They think they are fine and the kids are overreacting. I can imagine why Biden didn't want to give up the presidency.

 

[wmheel1287]

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

Exactly. He should have announced it at his darned inaugural and gotten about the business of governing while others jockeyed for position in the party, etc.

 

[HeelYeah2012]

If you've never experienced it, the folks that are on the cognitive decline never see it. They don't want to stop driving or living in their house. They think they are fine and the kids are overreacting. I can imagine why Biden didn't want to give up the presidency.

It’s this (above) plus also just in general people don’t usually willingly give up massive levels of power. Put the two things together and Biden had no intention of going anywhere until he was exposed as a vegetable and became a political liability for his party.

 

[finesse]

For the record, I was one who was FURIOUS at Biden for ever running and for not having a primary. His old ass should be beat for it. Love him but seriously mean it. Just like RBG's grave deserves a good pissing for her own hubris.

Im so SICK of old fucks who will not get out of the way. Hell, I'm 46 and I should be out of the way in another 15 years. The idea that I should be in control of anything 3 decades from now is totally laughable.

I'm not 3 decades older, only 27 years. You greatly overrate the certainty of mental decline at that age. Not sure I'm a prime example, but there are a hell of a lot of them in history before the current state of healthcare. You should worry a lot more about those that never had it than about those that might be losing it. Neither one should be in office but young and incompetent is no better and more common than old and in the way.

 

[superrific]

I agree with you, other than beating him (I know you are joking about that). I too don't understand why he didn't see that for the good of the country he should have come out very early on in his presidency and stated that he was here for four years to right the ship and then hand off the reins to someone else.

It might have something to do with the realization that your proposed strategy is an objectively terrible idea.

The success rate of major party candidates from the same party as a non-term-limited incumbent remains zero.

 

[stankeylegjones]

It might have something to do with the realization that your proposed strategy is an objectively terrible idea.

The success rate of major party candidates from the same party as a non-term-limited incumbent remains zero.

Perhaps. But still better than the one that they went with, which you championed.

 

[superrific]

Perhaps. But still better than the one that they went with, which you championed.

How do you know if it's better? Speculation?

Here's what we need to do: rein in the primary system. It doesn't need to consume us for eighteen months before the general election even starts. That's ultimately why this happened. If Biden's decision to run could have been delayed until late 2023, gearing up for a primary campaign starting in early 2024 with the first contests in March, I bet things would have turned out differently. But by making the deadline, so to speak, the end of 2022, we put Biden in a no win situation.

A better approach would be not to elect senior citizens to the office. Well -- we had to win in 2020. We did what we needed to do.

 

[heelslegup]

I actually think the Republicans underperformed in House and Senate races. They had a small House majority and will havew about the same when all is in. they will gain 3-4 in Senate but Dems had 10 more seats at staks this cycle than Repbulbicans
Which leadsd to two thoughts:
1) people are still not ready to vote for a woman President
2) Harris was not the best candicate or did not run the right campaign strategy.

I believe in both the peacful transition of power amd no person is above the law #1 is happening, hopefully #2 will as well. If it does not, this will snowball into really bad scenarios IMO

 

[finesse]

I doubt if we've ever had a president more protected from criticism, especially from his side. I don't have a good feeling about Trump considering himself subject to the law and experience will have borne him out.

 

[stankeylegjones]

How do you know if it's better? Speculation?

Here's what we need to do: rein in the primary system. It doesn't need to consume us for eighteen months before the general election even starts. That's ultimately why this happened. If Biden's decision to run could have been delayed until late 2023, gearing up for a primary campaign starting in early 2024 with the first contests in March, I bet things would have turned out differently. But by making the deadline, so to speak, the end of 2022, we put Biden in a no win situation.

A better approach would be not to elect senior citizens to the office. Well -- we had to win in 2020. We did what we needed to do.

Isn't it obvious that it would have been better for us if Biden had of stepped aside earlier than he did? Kamala had no time to campaign, and we didn't have a chance to vote for who we wanted to run.

I get it, you think Biden was a hero for what he did. Many disagree.

 

[superrific]

Isn't it obvious that it would have been better for us if Biden had of stepped aside earlier than he did? Kamala had no time to campaign, and we didn't have a chance to vote for who we wanted to run.

I get it, you think Biden was a hero for what he did. Many disagree.

1. Hindsight is 20/20. As I said, the decision would have been made around 2022. Well, how did the 2022 elections go for us? We overperformed expectations, even with Joe.

There was no real reason to think at that point that Biden wouldn't be able to run again. His fastball was gone in 2020 and he won. Everything I have read and what I've seen is that Biden's decline really started to accelerate sometime in late 2023.

2. If you're not even going to bother to address the main point here, why are you responding? Non-incumbent candidates from the incumbent's party basically never win in the US. The last time it happened was 1988. The time before that was . . . Calvin Coolidge? I suppose maybe you could say Truman since he didn't actually win election in 44, but the track record is horrible. And in this election, we saw in real time why. The idea that Kamala should have run as a change agent is preposterous.

3. Primaries are so overrated as candidate selection processes. Primaries gave us Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry. They gave the GOP Dole and McCain. Hell, the primaries gave us Joe Biden in the first place.

Mainly what primaries do is give jobs to campaign professionals, consume a huge amount of money, drive TV news coverage and stoke bitter rivalries inside the party. I'm not saying we should necessarily go back to smoke filled back rooms, but we didn't lose for lack of a primary.

 

[stankeylegjones]

1. Hindsight is 20/20. As I said, the decision would have been made around 2022. Well, how did the 2022 elections go for us? We overperformed expectations, even with Joe.

There was no real reason to think at that point that Biden wouldn't be able to run again. His fastball was gone in 2020 and he won. Everything I have read and what I've seen is that Biden's decline really started to accelerate sometime in late 2023.

2. If you're not even going to bother to address the main point here, why are you responding? Non-incumbent candidates from the incumbent's party basically never win in the US. The last time it happened was 1988. The time before that was . . . Calvin Coolidge? I suppose maybe you could say Truman since he didn't actually win election in 44, but the track record is horrible. And in this election, we saw in real time why. The idea that Kamala should have run as a change agent is preposterous.

3. Primaries are so overrated as candidate selection processes. Primaries gave us Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry. They gave the GOP Dole and McCain. Hell, the primaries gave us Joe Biden in the first place.

Mainly what primaries do is give jobs to campaign professionals, consume a huge amount of money, drive TV news coverage and stoke bitter rivalries inside the party. I'm not saying we should necessarily go back to smoke filled back rooms, but we didn't lose for lack of a primary.

No one is saying that we lost because of not having a primary. Many are saying that the option/route we took was not as good as it would have been if Biden had of stepped aside earlier. What do you want me to address about your point? Sure, what you are saying happened. I'm not saying it didn't. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results. It was clear that Biden was sticking around for far too long, well before his horrible performance at the debate. We were pointing out as much, only to be chastised by folks, including you. Trying to hide his health, age, decline, etc., or ignore it was never a good option to take. (Just like saying "out economy is great right now" is no way to appeal to the many folks who are not experiencing a great economy.) Being up front and open goes a long ways, imo.

I appreciate your input and value your wisdom on our board, but you are not going to convince me that Biden hanging on for as long as he did didn't have a negative impact on this election. I'll let you have the last word, allowing you to spin it however you feel is important to you.

 

[gregh1]

"millennial men were too busy quoting anchorman and figuring out new, innovative ways to sack tap each other to get radicalized by the far right and I love them for that." Samantha Ruddy in twitter post.

 

[heelslegup]

From an NBC News article I saw. Trump got 45% of Latino vote, which beat the Republican record of 44% set by Bush in 2004. If you want to blame anyone for putting Trump in office, the obvious answer is blame white voters, just like in 2016

 

[BlooVooDoo]

“… Elsewhere, Anson County, N.C., which is 40% African American, voted GOP for only the second time since Reconstruction. And Bucks County, Pa., an upper-income suburb outside Philadelphia, went Republican for the first time in more than 35 years.

… Across the board, there’s been a rise in the share of paycheck-to-paycheck households since 2019, BofA said. One in four households fits the bill.

… That prompted voters to look for someone to upend the status quo, and they gravitated toward Trump for his tough talk and uncompromising attitude, regardless of how they felt about him personally, Luntz explained.…”

Disappointment is going to have a full dance card.

 

[heelslegup]

Need to stress populism entrepreneurship, fairness and equality of opportunity. Tax the wealthy a bit hjgher and give that back to middle and lower classes as child care credits. Same for large bushinesses. Tax them a bit more and set some common sense general regulartory rules and don't try the Lena Khan nanny state. What will happen now is that regulartion will swing way too far in the other direction adn we will have a financial or real estate system crash because people go crazy with exotic finanicial instruments, including leverage, bitcoin etc. Clinton inherited a savings and loan crisis from the Rs, Obama a complete financial system collapse from Rs, and Biden would have faced similar except the pandemic did the crashing.

 

[BlooVooDoo]

No, I'm talking actual variety. Fewer fruits and spices. A smaller variety of restaurants. Literally everything.

When and where I grew up there were two grocery chains. There are at least 4 options now. Where I currently live I can be at any one of 6 different grocery chains in less than 10 minutes. Then there are the Latin, East Asian, Indian specialty grocers, a very comprehensive butcher/deli and a reliable fish/seafood market.