EXIT POLLS & TURNOUT DATA - The Red Shift

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BlooVooDoo said:
When and where I grew up there were two grocery chains. There are at least 4 options now. Where I currently live I can be at any one of 6 different grocery chains in less than 10 minutes. Then there are the Latin, East Asian, Indian specialty grocers, a very comprehensive butcher/deli and a reliable fish/seafood market.
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Where I grew up there was a little country store that had the basics a mile from the house down a dirt road. I don't think there was what you would consider a grocery store within five miles. I was 16 before I saw a pizza, 18 before I saw a taco. There was one or two kinds of mustard, ketchup or mayonnaise. As late as the early 70s , there was only one single malt scotches, Glenfiddich and two kinds of rye, 80 proof Jim Beam and Wild Turkey 101. The list goes on and on. There are fruits and nut either available all year and a lot that we never even heard of.
 
stankeylegjones said:
No one is saying that we lost because of not having a primary. Many are saying that the option/route we took was not as good as it would have been if Biden had of stepped aside earlier. What do you want me to address about your point? Sure, what you are saying happened. I'm not saying it didn't. However, past performance is no guarantee of future results. It was clear that Biden was sticking around for far too long, well before his horrible performance at the debate. We were pointing out as much, only to be chastised by folks, including you. Trying to hide his health, age, decline, etc., or ignore it was never a good option to take. (Just like saying "out economy is great right now" is no way to appeal to the many folks who are not experiencing a great economy.) Being up front and open goes a long ways, imo.

I appreciate your input and value your wisdom on our board, but you are not going to convince me that Biden hanging on for as long as he did didn't have a negative impact on this election. I'll let you have the last word, allowing you to spin it however you feel is important to you.
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1. That's what I want you to say. The track record of running against a same-party incumbent is terrible. And your very next sentence is a good rejoinder: past performance is no guarantee of future results.

I've said that I think Biden stepping aside in 2022 was a bad idea, but upon reflection, I think what I really mean is that it was a risky choice. Basically, "past performance is no guarantee" can be translated as "I don't really have a strong reason to think this will work, but the status quo seems bad." And when the status quo is a fast lane to a Trump presidency, I can understand the appeal. Personality-wise, I don't like doing things without good reason. Sometimes that's a good strategy in life, and sometimes it is not.

2. To build on this point, if we interpret my position retroactively as more of a concern about the riskiness of the choice, then my other point also requires a bit of change. It's not necessarily that Biden made the right decision, as much as I don't think he made a wrong one. Not all decisions that turn out poorly are bad. Sometimes things just don't work. The case for jettisoning him in 2022 was not strong. It was largely based on vibes and speculation. I don't think it's fair to fault a lot of people for failure to jump on board a highly unorthodox strategy that is based on speculation and feels. After all, we really don't know what would have happened if Biden had said he wouldn't run in 2022.

3. I don't remember all the details and the timing, but I think I was chastising folks who were talking about Biden's age after the time for a real primary process had passed. Once it was clear that Biden was going to win the primaries, the time for lamenting his age was over. If I was chastising people for talking about it in early 2022, then that was a mistake on my part.

4. Pelosi and others are talking about how we would have done better with a primary.

5. Generally, I'm a believer in not talking shit in public about your party. I didn't always used to be that way. 2000 and 2016 opened my eyes. Maybe I've taken it too far, but the overlap between "liberals talking shit about Dems" and "Dems losing elections" is quite high and we can add another item to that list now. In fairness, there's a chicken-and-egg issue. Maybe liberals start talking shit in elections when the elections are going badly for Dems on other grounds. I'm pretty sure that's not the case in 2000. 2016 is mixed. 2024 maybe the shit talking was reaction, not cause.
 
finesse said:
Where I grew up there was a little country store that had the basics a mile from the house down a dirt road. I don't think there was what you would consider a grocery store within five miles. I was 16 before I saw a pizza, 18 before I saw a taco. There was one or two kinds of mustard, ketchup or mayonnaise. As late as the early 70s , there was only one single malt scotches, Glenfiddich and two kinds of rye, 80 proof Jim Beam and Wild Turkey 101. The list goes on and on. There are fruits and nut either available all year and a lot that we never even heard of.
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And beer. I remember when Lowenbrau was the good stuff. The availability of a variety of food has definitely never been better. I don’t remember any boxed foods for special/sensitive diets. Gluten free? lol
 
It is well known or discussed that globally incumbents are having problems, here are some specifics in this twitter thread (sorry anti-twitter folks)

threadreaderapp.com

Thread by @robfordmancs on Thread Reader App

@robfordmancs: Decided to go through this systematically. Incumbent government performance in wealthy democracies since March 2022, when Ukraine invasion really spiked things upwards: 🧵 South Korea President (March ...…
threadreaderapp.com threadreaderapp.com

"Three big lessons here IMHO - (1) voters have been punishing incumbents everywhere, regardless of political orientation, length in office etc (2) Voters have been switching to all kinds of opposition, regardless of political orientation but...(3) radical anti-system parties (of right and left) have done well in many places, again regardless of who's in govt"
 
wmheel1287 said:
I don't know about that. Of all the bullshit that was thrown at Harris I thought the one that made sense to me was "if youre different why aren't you doing it now". While I logically understand a VP doesn't set policy, I don't think that wall was going to be broken through.
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I think the better way to counter that would have been to ask Trump why he didn’t implement all these great ideas 4+ years ago. Trump was actually POTUS. For half his term he had a Trifecta. And yet he never moved to eliminate taxes on tips or overtime or any of the other pie in the sky BS he promised in this campaign.
 
Paine said:
You’re kind of proving his point though.
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No, I just feel like professional contrarians are not worth the time and definitely not fascinating. His self selecting population on substack is not indicative of anything.
My personal experience doesn’t match with his at all
 
uncjhodges said:
No, I just feel like professional contrarians are not worth the time and definitely not fascinating. His self selecting population on substack is not indicative of anything
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I mean, I agree with this population being self selecting but I don’t think it tells us nothing. I think liberals and leftists are a lot more averse to disagreement in general.

The inability to confront disagreement within the Democratic Party isn’t a good recipe for a successful political operation. Silver isn’t a “professional contrarian” just because he says things liberals don’t like to hear.
 
Paine said:
I mean, I agree with this population being self selecting but I don’t think it tells us nothing. I think liberals and leftists are a lot more averse to disagreement in general.

The inability to confront disagreement within the Democratic Party isn’t a good recipe for a successful political operation. Silver isn’t a “professional contrarian” just because he says things liberals don’t like to hear.
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I’m not going to argue with you cause i just don’t want to lol but
1. If his point is that online liberals are more annoying and disagree with him more than moderate republicans who pay for nate silvers substack, No shit. That is not fascinating, Which was what i initially said. The left is notorious for purity tests- hell it’s cost us 2 elections in the last quarter century.
2. His covid takes bordered on bullshit contrarianism, but whatever, i’ll rescind that
 
uncjhodges said:
I’m not going to argue with you cause i just don’t want to lol but
1. If his point is that online liberals are more annoying and disagree with him more than moderate republicans who pay for nate silvers substack, No shit. That is not fascinating, Which was what i initially said. The left is notorious for purity tests- hell it’s cost us 2 elections in the last quarter century.
2. His covid takes bordered on bullshit contrarianism, but whatever, i’ll rescind that
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Fair enough. Not really looking for an argument.
 
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