I actually read that article earlier today and thought it was well done. As I said earlier though, it didn't matter if Floyd's death was the cause or not. The spike happened at the worst possible time for the police reform movement. People saw riots, people saw crime spiking and people saw police standing down and associated it with the riots and the crime spike. If you want to reform policing, the middle of a crime wave and global pandemic is the worst possible time to do it. A combination of poor timing and poor messaging doomed that movement. They couldn't control the former, but they could the latter.Didn't matter much. Crime started declining again in 23 and they didn't notice. Instead, they re-elected the idiot in charge when it started.
Here's a pretty good article on the spike. They argue that Floyd's death wasn't the root cause or the start. They blame in on the spike of unemployment in poor neighbors and teenagers out of school with nothing to do.
Why did U.S. homicides spike in 2020 and then decline rapidly in 2023 and 2024?
In 2020, the average U.S. city experienced a surge in its homicide rate of almost 30%—the fastest spike ever recorded in the country.www.brookings.edu
Five years since George Floyd
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What is your take on what Pew had to say about the decreasing rate of crime that the police is clearing? They consume a hell of a lot of federal and state money to be getting less and leas efficient at what they are supposed to do, especially as many ethical mistakes as they make. Seem like some sort of rebalancing the system is still necessary.
Mulberry Heel
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Oh, I definitely think the serious backlash was limited to mostly white conservatives, and that's why it didn't appeal to "Middle (White) America". I suspect that what you call "Middle America" is actually simply Trump's rural and suburban base. The angry reaction of many conservatives to anything with Black Lives Matter printed on it was truly something to see, and led to "Blue Lives Matter" signs and flags that I still see in some places today. And it certainly explains why the Trump Administration has made getting rid of the "Black Lives Matter" slogan (think about that for a minute - why would you want to eliminate something as simple and direct as that?) a prominent part of his anti-DEI efforts, and it explains why Black Lives Matter murals are being painted over and eliminated all over the country.
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- “Abolish the police” was a leftist slogan, not a reform.
- Minneapolis didn’t attempt to dismantle the PD. A group of city councillors got briefly over their skis, rhetorically, in the heat of the Floyd protests, and within months said rhetoric was gone. Not a reform.
- Washington did indeed liberalize the language of their 2021 chase law. Also, I haven't seen studies vetting the claim that crime rising nor falling are related. I found cop testimonials citing the relationship, but frankly, cops aint the gold standard for evidence based arguments. Around that time, i.e. COVID, Washington auto thefts and crime in general were up when national auto thefts and crime were up, and started coming down in 2024, consistent with national trends. Washington did experience a rise in auto fatalities around the time of the law. I do not doubt the plausibility of a relationship between the law and behavior; however, I need more than the word of sheriffs, police chiefs, political action committees, and people whose rhetorical trump card is "common sense". Happy to read research you find. This was indeed a reform, that got neutered on the basis of plausible, but per my search, unproven relationships.
- I don't remember Atlanta becoming the Five Points, but again, happy to read credible sources. I don't see "reform" in the anecdote.
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Buckhead was the Wild Wild West during the Mayor Bottoms - “let the protestors riot and blow off stream” - administration. The police were forbidden to chase criminals. Police were being criminally charged for simply doing their jobs
She was soooo bad the Democratic machine wouldn’t allow her to run for a 2nd term.
She was soooo bad the Democratic machine wouldn’t allow her to run for a 2nd term.
The clearance rates that Pew discusses experienced a dramatic drop from 2020 to 2022. I'd argue that was simply a factor of violent crime spiking while police officer ranks dwindled. You aren't going to be able to solve as many crimes when your ranks decrease while crime surges.
As I stated, That spike is overplayed. It was two-three years, primarily involved murder and was still much less than twenty years ago.
Oh, and by the way, what is this decline in police you're talking about?
No, the number of law enforcement officers (LEOs) has not dropped in the last 10 years. In fact, data from Statista indicates that the number of full-time LEOs in the United States has generally increased over that period, with a slight dip in 2019.
Turns out, it's probably not less money, either.
- A report from the Urban Institute states that state and local government spending on police increased by 189% between 1977 and 2021, when adjusted for inflation.
- A study from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS) found that in 2017, per capita spending on police protection in the U.S. was $351.54, a significant increase from previous years.
- An article in the New York Times notes that in several major cities, the share of municipal budgets allocated to police departments grew significantly over time, despite population growth and crime rate decreases.
- The Cato Institute reported that federal police spending has quadrupled since the 1980s, increasing from 0.05% of GDP to 0.26% of GDP.
Kinda looks like in the last 20 years, we've gotten less crime and less crime resolution in exchange for spending more money on more police. The system might not be broken but it's badly bent.
1. It was a slogan that was aimed at a reform. The people shouting "abolish the police" and "defund the police" were not just making noise. They were absolutely advocating for what they were shouting.
2. There were 922 police officers in Minneapolis in 2019. That number plummeted to the 500s after Floyd and the associated unrest. The city council members, through their rhetoric, pushed out nearly a third of the department.
3. The best data I can find about that is here: https://www.waspc.org/assets/Data Charts - Driving.pdf
I think it is common sense that telling criminals "if you run, we aren't going to make any effort to chase you" is essentially a "get out of jail free" card for anyone in a vehicle. Thankfully, as you mentioned, that reform was repealed.
4. Here's an article about what I was referring to in Atlanta: Secoriea Turner's family sues Atlanta mayor, city leaders over fatal shooting. Essentially, armed vigilantes set up a barricade and the police were not allowed to do anything about it until one of those vigilantes shot and killed a little girl.
Also, some of these reforms were created through policy directives rather than legislation. For example, during the unrest in 2020 the police officers were I lived at the time were threatened with disciplinary actions if they made any arrests during the rioting. At one point officers were even fired upon and were forced to retreat with no arrests made. That was a major issue where I lived as people simply couldn't understand why the police were standing by and watching property damage occur. Several officers quit because of that night.
There is an absolute decline in policing as well as the quality of officers that are being hired. This is a nationwide problem:
According to the survey, over 70% of agencies reported that recruitment has become more difficult compared to five years ago. On average, agencies are currently operating at 91% of their authorized staffing levels, indicating a nearly 10% deficit in workforce numbers.
The State of Police Recruitment and Retention - Lexipol
A 2024 survey reveals continuing struggles in police recruitment and retention, with agencies facing personnel shortages and increased turnover.
www.lexipol.com
The State of Recruitment & Retention: A Continuing Crisis for Police
2024 Survey Re...
Top Five Real Solutions to the Police Recruitment and Retention Crisis - R Street Institute
It’s no secret that law enforcement agencies nationwide are struggling to recruit and retain qualified personnel. The labor shortage, which the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) calls a crisis, is doing what the “defund the police” movement could not—namely, shrinking the size...
www.rstreet.org
This is also an issue locally.
Durham PD is 28 percent understaffed:
Raleigh PD was down 84 officers last year:
RPD Vacancies Are Trending Downward
With only 45 vacancies—compared to 84 this time last year—the Raleigh Police Department is finally filling the gaps in their force.
raleighmag.com
Charlotte is short 300 officers:
Greensboro down 80 officers:
Fayetteville down 88 officers:
Law enforcement leaders address Sandhills officer shortage
A critical law enforcement staffing shortage in the Sandhills has area leaders joining forces to find help.
And so on, and so on....you can put essentially any city in Google and find that they are short a substantial number of officers. So, as I said: more crime, fewer officers means lower clearance rates. Pretty simple.
Bigs23
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Same problem with teachers.There is an absolute decline in policing as well as the quality of officers that are being hired. This is a nationwide problem:
According to the survey, over 70% of agencies reported that recruitment has become more difficult compared to five years ago. On average, agencies are currently operating at 91% of their authorized staffing levels, indicating a nearly 10% deficit in workforce numbers.
The State of Police Recruitment and Retention - Lexipol
A 2024 survey reveals continuing struggles in police recruitment and retention, with agencies facing personnel shortages and increased turnover.
The State of Recruitment & Retention: A Continuing Crisis for Police
2024 Survey Re...www.theiacp.org
Top Five Real Solutions to the Police Recruitment and Retention Crisis - R Street Institute
It’s no secret that law enforcement agencies nationwide are struggling to recruit and retain qualified personnel. The labor shortage, which the International Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) calls a crisis, is doing what the “defund the police” movement could not—namely, shrinking the size...
This is also an issue locally.
Durham PD is 28 percent understaffed:
And in large segments of healthcare. Complaining about a drop in clearance rates amongst a police staffing crisis is akin to complaining about Emergency Department wait times when the hospital can't recruit or keep any doctors or nurses. It has been a rough five years for a lot of professions that society depends on.
It's possible for both to be true if money and personnel are misallocated. Note that the complaint in many cases is that they don't have the staff authorized, not necessarily that the staff hasn't increased or the personnel assigned elsewhere. Also citing local situations in national discussions is a little myopic. You don't get a good view of the whole situation.
There are no personnel to misallocate. The police staffing crisis is a nationwide issue and a very real one. Spending has gone up because of inflation and police departments dramatically increasing salaries as an attempt to keep the staffing shortage from becoming any worse. The "local situations" aren't isolated. Every single major city in our state has a significant staffing shortage. That's the same across the country. That's not myopic. That is showing how a nationwide crisis has been impacting very real people across the board.
Just to show you that this isn't a "local" issue:
Philadelphia PD has a 20 percent vacancy rate:
Atlanta area:
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Miami:
South Florida police departments experience hiring crisis amid nationwide shortage
Police Departments across South Florida are struggling to recruit and retain police officers.
Boston:
Baltimore:
Baltimore police "playing with fire" over severe shortage of officers, judge warns
Baltimore police continue to lose officers despite major incentives to recruit and retain them, and that is the top concern of the judge overseeing reforms in the department.
www.cbsnews.com
Chicago:
Houston:
Houston police worried about dwindling force numbers as murderers walk the streets
‘I would not let my wife or my kids walk down the streets of Houston at midnight under any circumstances,’ Ray Hunt said
nypost.com
Phoenix:
Phoenix PD sees wave of applications as it works to fill hundreds of vacancies
The Phoenix Police force says it’s seeing a wave of hundreds of new applications, and it comes as the department continues its struggle to fill more than 600 vacancies.
And so on, and so on, and so on...
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True and thanks to the Republican marketing firm BLM is looked upon more negatively than the proud boys.
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I appreciate the response. I’m going to harp on this, rhetoric isn’t policy.
Also, cop staffing shortages get blamed on “LeFTiStS!” as often as Fox News runs racialized spins on a story - ie everyday. For the record, I’m not a Democrat and have firm disagreements with the very few leftists this board. With that in mind, why is it the “leftists!” get blamed over and over and over for results with etiology embedded in police violence, police incompetence, and police abuse of power? Why is the burden consistently turned back upon citizens who fear practically unchecked police power, instead of holding cops accountable? Why should we believe any cop association or chief when they scream about underfunding (not true) yet quiet quit on our dimes alll the time; have terrible violent crime clearance rates; and are shown to be infused with gangs, organized crime, and violent bullying culture at rates far exceeding the general public? Why is there a cop staffing shortage at a time when police associations (an abjectly problematic industry) continue to fight against higher police standards, the citizenry demands more for their money, and city councils want more accountability, while also giving more money to union contracts than ever before (ie defund the police never functionally occur on any meaningful scale)? Vacancy issues exist because of police culture and poor job performance as much as evil communist soy boy blue haired they/them leftists!.
Silence Dogood
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Why doesn't the left ever mention Floyd resisting arrest, the drugs in his system, or eight previous arrest?
Silence Dogood
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MOUNTAINH33L
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Because none of those things should warrant being murdered. Hope that clears it up for you.
You are right that it is a complex issue. There's not one single cause of the police staffing shortage. I will argue that the fact that the shortage accelerated rapidly in 2020 is not a coincidence. Policing has always been a hard job unless you land some cush job in a crime-free suburb. Prior to 2014 the pendulum largely swung in favor of giving police officers the benefit of the doubt, even if that meant that misconduct went unpunished. Beginning in 2014 and then returning with a vengeance in 2020 the pendulum swung very far in the other direction. Police officers not only had to worry about their own safety, but they had to worry about becoming the next headline or having to go into hiding for defending themselves or others. They were placed under a microscope, with every split-second decision being second guessed by people with the benefit of complete hindsight.
For every George Floyd video that went viral across the world, there were 100 like the one below. The police officer pulls over a man for a simple traffic violation. The man immediately states that he is armed and seems mentally unstable. As the officer, what do you do? Do you order the man out at gunpoint and risk turning him into the next Philando Castille? He's reaching for his gun, but you don't want to go to prison, be fired, or have to go into hiding. So, the officer plays it cool, calls for backup, and tries to calm the man down. When the officer's partners get there, the man shoots two police officers before being fatally shot himself. It is a game that the police often can't win, and people don't want to get into that job anymore when they have to worry about becoming the next Darren Wilson or Garrett Rolfe.
Silence Dogood
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Now do Laken Riley