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Gavin Newsom addresses the nation

  • Thread starter Thread starter dukeman92
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Snoop, I get that you weren’t trying to offer a full strategy in your original post. But when someone says Democrats shouldn’t try to win over right-leaning voters and should just focus on “getting their people to the polls plus a few folks from the middle,” it implies a strategic posture; one that is, frankly, reactive and defensive. That’s what I was responding to.

You say I’m projecting my frustrations with the mainstream Democratic Party onto your post. Maybe. But your analysis does mirror the kind of minimalist thinking that dominates institutional Democratic politics: treat elections as turnout operations, ignore the cultural terrain, avoid confronting hard questions about economic messaging, and hope the other side flames out.

My assumption was that anyone talking seriously about 2028 would need to wrestle with the deeper political forces reshaping the electorate. If you’re writing off the right-wing base and limiting the battleground to base + middle, you’re reinforcing the same failed 2024 framework. That wasn’t just a fluke of Biden dropping out. It was a systemic failure of message, meaning, and connection. The outcome revealed just how brittle the mainstream approach had become.

Regarding the “connection” piece: you keep shifting what you mean by “connection,” which makes your argument hard to follow and less convincing.

At first, you framed connection as a deep, emotional, two-way bond. Something Trump uniquely maintains by constantly affirming his supporters’ identity and grievances. You said others like Vance only have a one-way relationship, telling voters what they want to hear but lacking real connection.

But then you pivot to saying connection means getting voters to turn out and act on a candidate’s behalf, which is a much looser, instrumental definition that any politician can achieve if they motivate turnout.

These two definitions are very different. If connection is just about turnout and political action, then why do you insist Trump has it uniquely while others don’t?

As I’ve said, voters don’t need a genuine emotional bond to be moved by a candidate: they need a credible signal that their concerns and identity are understood and represented. That’s how political power is built.

Overall, you’re right that not all political “connection” (in the original, emotional sense) is deep or lasting. But that’s the point. Most politicians don’t even try to forge the kind of symbolic, identity-rooted connection that makes voters feel seen. Trump does/did, and now others on the right are learning how to copy it. Unless Democrats stop thinking like managers of coalitions and start thinking like builders of political meaning, they’ll keep playing catch-up in this landscape.
I don't think that Dems should try to win over right-wing voters in any scale because I think it's largely a fool's errand...those voters aren't up for grabs unless the Democratic Party is willing to start trading in bigotry and marginalization of minorities. I see very little to suggest that Dems could successfully court these voters without giving up the soul of the party by essentially abandoning the minority groups that currently make up the core of Dem support. While I think these voters are motivated by economic concerns, I don't think they're (a) open to realistic economic solutions and (b) willing to prioritize realistic economic solutions over oppressing minorities. I'm all for expanding the potential voter base for the Dems, but I don't think you get there by reaching out to right-wing voters. These voters have made it clear what they prioritize and it is anathema to my view of America.

If Dems are to expand the potential voter baser for the party, it almost certainly has to come from disengaged folks who don't vote but who can be convinced to do so because they believe that Dems offer a solution for the problems we're facing. I don't see a future in trying to convince folks who want to go back to the 1950s (or 1850s) that the Dems have anything to offer them.

I have not shifted what I mean by "connection", because until my last post I had not defined it. You read connection as "a deep, emotional, two-way bond" because that's what you desire from a politican, not becuase of anything I said. Vance doesn't connect with voters because he doesn't motivate them to actually support him or to go to the polls. The most he can offer them is to tell them what they want to hear and they like it...but that's as far as it goes. Trump has connection with the base because he can motivate them to act...he gets them to rallies, he gets them to the polls, and he gets them purchase all sorts of stupid shit.

Again, I've made essentially no statement on how Dems should go about rebuilding as a party into one that can win elections at the national level (POTUS + Congressional majorities) as it's not a discussion I'm interested in at the moment. But that doesn't mean we should learn the wrong lessons from Pubs and end up chasing voter blocks and messages that benefit neither the party nor the country.
 
I don't think that Dems should try to win over right-wing voters in any scale because I think it's largely a fool's errand...those voters aren't up for grabs unless the Democratic Party is willing to start trading in bigotry and marginalization of minorities. I see very little to suggest that Dems could successfully court these voters without giving up the soul of the party by essentially abandoning the minority groups that currently make up the core of Dem support. While I think these voters are motivated by economic concerns, I don't think they're (a) open to realistic economic solutions and (b) willing to prioritize realistic economic solutions over oppressing minorities. I'm all for expanding the potential voter base for the Dems, but I don't think you get there by reaching out to right-wing voters. These voters have made it clear what they prioritize and it is anathema to my view of America.

If Dems are to expand the potential voter baser for the party, it almost certainly has to come from disengaged folks who don't vote but who can be convinced to do so because they believe that Dems offer a solution for the problems we're facing. I don't see a future in trying to convince folks who want to go back to the 1950s (or 1850s) that the Dems have anything to offer them.

I have not shifted what I mean by "connection", because until my last post I had not defined it. You read connection as "a deep, emotional, two-way bond" because that's what you desire from a politican, not becuase of anything I said. Vance doesn't connect with voters because he doesn't motivate them to actually support him or to go to the polls. The most he can offer them is to tell them what they want to hear and they like it...but that's as far as it goes. Trump has connection with the base because he can motivate them to act...he gets them to rallies, he gets them to the polls, and he gets them purchase all sorts of stupid shit.

Again, I've made essentially no statement on how Dems should go about rebuilding as a party into one that can win elections at the national level (POTUS + Congressional majorities) as it's not a discussion I'm interested in at the moment. But that doesn't mean we should learn the wrong lessons from Pubs and end up chasing voter blocks and messages that benefit neither the party nor the country.
You say you had not defined what you meant by “connection” until your last post, as if that frees you from the entire frame this conversation has been operating in. But come on. The discussion around Newsom was clearly centered on the emotional and affective connection candidates have, or fail to have, with voters. It was about how someone like Newsom comes across to disaffected people, not simply how many people show up to vote for him or buy his merch.

If you were not talking about emotional connection, then why enter a conversation where that was the central focus and only now, several posts in, claim you meant something else entirely? That is not clarifying.

Your earlier comments clearly relied on an implied definition: mocking Vance for being inauthentic, calling him a muppet, and saying that “connection implies a two-way relationship.” That wasn’t nothing. You were drawing on a moral and emotional framework, the same one I was engaging in good faith. But now that I’ve pushed you to clarify and defend it, you’ve retreated to a totally different definition: connection as mere voter turnout. That shift allows you to dismiss Vance as disconnected while preserving Trump as a kind of outlier, without grappling with the emotional mechanisms that fuel both of them. It’s not that you haven’t defined connection, it’s that you’re switching definitions when the conversation gets inconvenient.

You also try to reframe my argument as being about what I personally desire from a politician. But this is not just some private preference I made up. Emotional connection, the ability to tell a story, to resonate, to build symbolic trust, has always been central to modern politics. Reagan had it. Trump has it. Obama had it, though in a very different register. The issue with Newsom is that he lacks it. He does not seem like he has lived the things he is talking about. And in today’s environment, how a politician makes people feel is not a minor concern. It becomes a signal for whose side they are actually on.

At any rate, your new definition of connection as “gets people to the polls” is a shallow and reductive way of understanding political appeal. It is not even internally consistent. You say Vance does not connect, yet he won a statewide race in Ohio. He did that while running on populist aesthetics and cultural grievance. You admit that Trump motivates people to act, but then pretend that this is not because of emotional connection. Of course it is. People buy into Trump because they feel, whether rightly or wrongly, that he understands them, that he shares their enemies, that he speaks from the gut. That is not just a turnout operation. That is myth-making.

You can’t have it both ways. The moment you say Democrats shouldn’t try to reach certain voters, you’re offering a strategy. You say we should not try to reach out to right-wing or working-class voters in any way that might challenge the current liberal moral framework. That is a strategy. It is a strategy based on exclusion. It assumes that large parts of the electorate, including former Democrats, are beyond redemption. If you are going to argue for that position, then at least own it. Do not pretend you are simply observing from the sidelines.

You’re trying to strip the whole concept of “connection” of any meaning by shifting between affective, symbolic, and mechanical models of “connection” while accusing me of muddying the waters. Then you turn around and declare that we should not bother with voters who are alienated from the Democratic Party unless they already accept the entire moral framing of professional-class liberalism. This is the same rhetorical move you made last night. You cloud the terms of the debate, redefine the topic, then claim that the other side is just confused.

Truth is, millions of Americans are politically homeless. They are alienated from both parties. Not all of them are unreachable racists. Many are disillusioned, cynical, struggling, and desperate for something real. If Democrats want to win again, especially in the places where they have been bleeding support for years, they need candidates who come across as genuine. Not because we are abandoning our values, but because we are showing people that we actually believe in them. That requires emotional trust, not just a policy menu or a polished speech. Without that, there is no connection at all.
 
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So is Senator Padilla getting arrested a publicity stunt? I am not being facetious; I do not know anything about Sen. Padilla except that he is from CA.

If it is a publicity stunt, is that OK?
 
You’re doing two things at once here: changing definitions midstream while also pretending not to engage in strategic conversation, even though your framework clearly implies a strategy.

From the beginning, I’ve been using “connection” in the emotional and symbolic sense: something visceral, narrative-driven, and trust-building. That’s what this entire discussion about Newsom has been about: whether he can emotionally connect with people who are skeptical of the Democratic Party.

At first, you engaged with this definition of connection. Then, you brought forth a totally different, more instrumental definition: basically, whether a politician can get people to show up and vote and whether they buy merch.

You say you hadn’t defined “connection” until your last post, but you sure acted like I had the wrong definition the whole time. That implies you were operating with your own criteria all along. And now that I’ve been talking about a type of emotional resonance that clearly explains Trump’s appeal (and Reagan’s, and to some extent even Obama’s), you’re trying to pivot the conversation to turnout metrics and merchandise sales. But that’s just a narrower way of dodging the deeper question: who makes people feel like they matter?

Your framing of white working-class or conservative-leaning voters as primarily driven by hate is convenient. It saves you the trouble of asking harder questions about why the Democratic Party has failed to reach them, even when it’s offered good-sounding policies. It also lets you sidestep the question of political storytelling; of whether Democrats have anyone who can talk to disillusioned Americans in a way that feels authentic, compelling, and rooted in moral language.
1. I have no dog in this particular fight, but I will agree with your larger point, at least in part. Sometimes there is value in talking to conservative voters even if you can't win any of them specifically. They might not be interested, but maybe their friends are. Or someone is watching Fox News at the doctors' office. This isn't a short-term play: if you show up on Fox News in October before the election, it's too late. We need to be on Fox News now. Sure they will pillory our side, but just present our ideas. They might break through. Maybe some MAGA is feeling a bit betrayed by the tariffs or the deportations of their friends or DOGE axed their jobs. They think, "well, too bad the Dems are only for trans and illegals." Then maybe they see Pete on Fox News and it clicks -- hey, wait, the Dems aren't like that at all!

You can't convince who you don't talk to. Here I think we are confusing a campaign strategy for an electoral one. If a Dem campaign doesn't want to go on Fox after Labor Day in an election year, fine. I can see that. But in January, speak to people. It's not clear that this will work, but it's low cost.

If we aren't there, they can make up any old shit and assign that to us as our position. They will probably do that anyway, but it's harder if there's someone in their face saying, "that's not what I believe, here's what I believe."

2. But come on, dude: our framing of white working class voters as primarily driven by hate is not convenient. It is based on every single thing we see. Literally all of MAGA is hate and xenophobia. America First. Tariffs for made in America. Foreigners get out. Deport all the illegals except the white ones. Trans trans trans every day. They are eating the pets. Kids go to school as Johnny and come back as Janey. Etc. etc.

Can you tell me one positive thing that MAGA offers to its base? Jobs doesn't count because that's obviously an empty promise and it's not true anyway. It's all grievance, all the time. Look at the people on this board. Which one of them has any ideas other than turn the clock back before the minorities and women had any real rights?

Why are they renaming the army bases after confederate traitors? You know the reason. Why are they kicking trans people out of the military? You know. Why are they rewriting American history, preventing anyone from ever talking about homosexuality? These small issues can be a window into preferences. Because they don't matter much, they are a perfect opportunity for someone like Trump to deliver for his base. And what does that base want? You know.

3. I know there are responses. They turn to hate because they see no future, but if we offered them an economic program some might bite. Not all of them are motivated this way. They are never going to come to our side if we just ignore them as deplorables. I get it -- none of those arguments are provably wrong. Maybe some are good.

But don't insult everyone's intelligence by saying that we're not principled in our estimation of the other side. Have you seen the studies? The factors that have been shown to be correlated with (and explanatory of) Trump support are: a) racial animus; b) browning of county of residence; c) attachment to traditional gender roles. There are dozens of these studies.

If you don't think that tells the whole story, fine, but it's not "convenient"
 
Of course it is a publicity stunt.
All of politics is a publicity stunt.

What do you think the Selma march was? It sure as hell wasn't a friendly stroll, and there was no compelling reason why they needed to take that bridge. Oh, and the press just happened to be invited. It's almost as if the purpose was to expose the oppression and brutality inherent in the system.
 
All of politics is a publicity stunt.

What do you think the Selma march was? It sure as hell wasn't a friendly stroll, and there was no compelling reason why they needed to take that bridge. Oh, and the press just happened to be invited. It's almost as if the purpose was to expose the oppression and brutality inherent in the system.
MLK picked the march in Birmingham because he knew Bull Connor would show his ass on national TV
 
All of politics is a publicity stunt.

What do you think the Selma march was? It sure as hell wasn't a friendly stroll, and there was no compelling reason why they needed to take that bridge. Oh, and the press just happened to be invited. It's almost as if the purpose was to expose the oppression and brutality inherent in the system.
If you are comparing Alex Padilla's stunt to the Selma March, I don't know what to say to you.
 
I am just not a big fan of the "arrest me" schtick for politicians. Whether that comes from Newsom or Pritzker. It is not the biggest issue in the world, and I am not shooting anyone. As I have made very clear on this thread, I think Newsom's issues run far greater than his fake Jacob Soboroff interview "arrest me" schtick. But I am also not going to get stoked that other politicians are now imitating this fake tough guy routine.
And if Trump ever got arrested his supporters would go ballistic and be the streets. And I don’t mean as President
 
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If you are comparing Alex Padilla's stunt to the Selma March, I don't know what to say to you.
You could say, "good point," instead of that passive-aggressive non-response.

The Selma March was in fact a big event, much bigger than Alex Padilla. True. On the other hand, it was much, much more difficult in those days to get peoples' attention with a solo act. You needed huge crowds because there was no such thing as going viral.

But if you prefer a different example, how about the monks who burned themselves alive over Vietnam?

All politics is about getting attention. If that wasn't true throughout history, it sure as hell is true now.
 
Again, so fucking what?

There isn’t really a way to fight back against Trumpism that wouldn’t qualify as a publicity stunt.
Court cases

Protests

Public Relations campaigns, including media interviews and social media coordination

Rallies

Political speeches in Congress and in public

There are a lot of ways to influence public opinion. Political movements like the Tea Party, Me Too, Black Lives Matter, Anti-Vietnam War, Civil Rights, etc. did not rely on things like Alex Padilla crashing a Kristi Noem press conference to "just ask some questions."

Alex Padilla is not doing anything to weaken Trump. Not. A. Thing. Some of the people on this board are so gullible. You play right into performance politics.
 
You could say, "good point," instead of that passive-aggressive non-response.

The Selma March was in fact a big event, much bigger than Alex Padilla. True. On the other hand, it was much, much more difficult in those days to get peoples' attention with a solo act. You needed huge crowds because there was no such thing as going viral.

But if you prefer a different example, how about the monks who burned themselves alive over Vietnam?

All politics is about getting attention. If that wasn't true throughout history, it sure as hell is true now.
If it were a good point, I would have said good point.

Again, if you think what Alex Padilla did is comparable to self immolation, I can't help you. Now, if Alex wants to set himself on fire to protest, then I'll say he has moved beyond cheap political stunts.
 
Court cases

Protests

Public Relations campaigns, including media interviews and social media coordination

Rallies

Political speeches in Congress and in public

There are a lot of ways to influence public opinion. Political movements like the Tea Party, Me Too, Black Lives Matter, Anti-Vietnam War, Civil Rights, etc. did not rely on things like Alex Padilla crashing a Kristi Noem press conference to "just ask some questions."

Alex Padilla is not doing anything to weaken Trump. Not. A. Thing. Some of the people on this board are so gullible. You play right into performance politics.
Please tell us what Dems should be doing to oppose Trump in an effective way. Telling us what you think won’t work doesn’t count.
 
1. I have no dog in this particular fight, but I will agree with your larger point, at least in part. Sometimes there is value in talking to conservative voters even if you can't win any of them specifically. They might not be interested, but maybe their friends are. Or someone is watching Fox News at the doctors' office. This isn't a short-term play: if you show up on Fox News in October before the election, it's too late. We need to be on Fox News now. Sure they will pillory our side, but just present our ideas. They might break through. Maybe some MAGA is feeling a bit betrayed by the tariffs or the deportations of their friends or DOGE axed their jobs. They think, "well, too bad the Dems are only for trans and illegals." Then maybe they see Pete on Fox News and it clicks -- hey, wait, the Dems aren't like that at all!

You can't convince who you don't talk to. Here I think we are confusing a campaign strategy for an electoral one. If a Dem campaign doesn't want to go on Fox after Labor Day in an election year, fine. I can see that. But in January, speak to people. It's not clear that this will work, but it's low cost.
I will say, I accidentally sent an earlier version of a reply I typed out to Snoop. My edited reply differs a good bit, but the idea is still the same.

At any rate, I’ll try to respond to your post.

I appreciate that you at least partially agree there’s value in engaging conservative or right-leaning voters, even if it’s not always about flipping them. But I think your post ultimately reveals the limits of the framework you’re working within, especially the way it flattens conservative voters into caricatures and substitutes a moral diagnosis for a political strategy.

You say it’s not “convenient” to reduce MAGA to hate and xenophobia because it’s based on what you see and what the studies say. But you’re not treating these studies as data points to think with, you’re using them as moral proof texts. You’re assuming that correlation is destiny, that because racial resentment correlates with Trump support, it must be the core driver for every voter in that camp, and that it therefore forecloses serious political engagement.

What makes that even more contradictory is that you then turn around and say we should be appearing on Fox News to “plant seeds.” Why would we plant seeds among a population that, by your own account, is incapable of recognizing human decency or responding to anything but grievance? Either these voters are emotionally reachable or they’re not. You can’t write them off as morally depraved and politically unreachable in paragraph two and then tell us it’s “low cost” and “worth a shot” to try to reach them in paragraph one.

What’s going on here isn’t really a political strategy so much as it’s branding. You want Democrats to appear open-minded and decent to people who, in your telling, are beyond reason. That’s not a political plan. That’s reputational damage control for professional-class liberals who are uncomfortable being seen as aloof. You’re not trying to win anyone over, you’re trying to feel better about not winning them over.

And that ties into the larger problem: liberalism still doesn’t know how to process the emotional power of populism. You treat MAGA as a mass psychosis rather than as a political formation that has emotional, cultural, and economic resonance, much of which has grown in the vacuum created by decades of bipartisan neglect. You mention jobs as an “empty promise” and then act like grievance politics came out of nowhere. But maybe the promise of jobs isn’t empty to people who watched their towns collapse while both parties gave them NAFTA and Walmart.

You say, “What positive thing does MAGA offer?” The answer is belonging. Narrative. Identity. A sense of being seen. It’s not just “hate” any more than the appeal of Obama was just “hope.” The left will never understand how to defeat that until it understands how it works. And that begins with refusing to treat half the country like they’re too poisoned to ever matter politically.

People’s political identity isn’t genetically hardwired. If we cede that emotional ground to the right, they will keep winning it.
 
If it were a good point, I would have said good point.

Again, if you think there is something comparable to self immolation and what Alex Padilla did, I can't help you. Now, if Alex wants to set himself on fire to protest, then I'll say he has moved beyond cheap political stunts.
Ah, so you've moved the goalposts. Before it was a political stunt that you were criticizing. Now your complaint is about the "cheapness" of it all. Not sure what that term is supposed to mean exactly, or how one distinguishes a cheap political stunt from a legit political stunt.

Is Alex Padilla going to be as effective as the March on Washington.? Well, duh. But they are fundamentally doing the same thing on different scales.

As you have said yourself, Trump is spoiling for a fight on the streets, for an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act. So maybe a March isn't the best idea for the moment. Maybe Senators getting arrested (which can't remotely be described as insurrection) is a better idea.
 
Please tell us what Dems should be doing to oppose Trump in an effective way. Telling us what you think won’t work doesn’t count.
I literally just listed 5-6 things they should be doing and are in fact doing in the post you are responding to.
 
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